Primetime Parlay: Cowboys vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:15:56

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Dallas Cowboys versus the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

After a rather uninspiring Sunday Night Football contest, the NFL comes back with a doozy for Monday Night Football. The resurgent Chargers will play host to the Dallas Cowboys. Sports betting sites project a tight affair with a lot of points. Will the Cowboys bounce back after a dismal showing versus the 49ers? Will the Chargers continue their winning ways at home? Let’s build a same-game parlay on FanDuel Sportsbook for tonight’s primetime affair.

Cowboys vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, FanDuel offers the Chargers as 1.5-point home favorites. Per SAO, 58% of bets on the spread are with the Chargers while Los Angeles has fetched 68% of money bet on the line. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road.

The implied game total is 50.5 points with some interesting betting action. 58% of betting tickets took the over throughout the week while the money kept pouring in on the under. The total opened at 47.5 and climbed throughout the week. Now it seems the sharper money is taking the other side, with 82% of actual dollars being spent on the under as of Monday morning.

As for injuries, the Cowboys offense outside of Peyton Hendershot will be present for tonight’s affair. Unfortunately, the Cowboys lost Leighton Vander Esch and a key special teams cornerback in C.J. Goodwin.

For the Chargers, Austin Ekeler makes his return after being pulled from the injury report and practicing this week. Justin Herbert practiced in full despite a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. J.C. Jackson was traded back to the Patriots after not playing for weeks because of legal issues. Joshua Palmer was a late addition to the injury report during the early wave of games on Sunday — apparently suffering a groin injury. He is questionable for the game.

The Cowboys are coming off of a terrible loss to the 49ers and continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Dak Prescott did not have a good performance — his three interceptions were not a good look for the Dallas quarterback. Despite the woes last weekend, the Cowboys still possess the sixth-best scoring offense in the league while only averaging 4.9 yards per play. Perhaps Dak and company are beginning to regress? On the season, Dak now has five touchdowns to four interceptions. He will need a strong performance tonight to silence the already loud critics.

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On the other hand, Justin Herbert continues to impress as the Chargers’ signal-caller even without key weapons. Without Austin Ekeler all season and Mike Williams for a game, Herbert leads the 5th-best scoring offense in the league with the fourth-best yards per play on offense. Herbert has 7 touchdowns to only 1 pick, with three rushing touchdowns this season. Even with a broken finger, Herbert will look to keep the good form up against a very game Dallas defense. Herbert is a darkhorse MVP candidate, currently at +2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Dallas defense is 7th in scoring due to an immense amount of pressure the front puts on quarterbacks. Tied for second in sack rate (10.14%), the Cowboys will look to make Herbert uncomfortable throughout the night. The Los Angeles’ defense… well… Brandon Staley was a defensive coordinator. Despite his pedigree, the Chargers’ defense continues to hinder what is clearly a playoff-caliber offense. Allowing 26 points per game on defense explains a 2-3 record for an offense that has scored 27.5 points per game. Something needs to improve, as Staley’s questionable decision-making and poor defensive quality will require plenty of explanation if a Justin Herbert-led team cannot ascend.

Let’s see what ParlayIQ and the thousands of simulations of this game offer as insight for tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF

Los Angeles Chargers +1.5
Ekeler Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Prescott Over 253.5 Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers +1.5

ParlayIQ does not love the Chargers in tonight’s game. We will again build our parlay in disagreement with all of our simulations. ParlayIQ only features 49% of simulations with the Chargers covering this spread and 47% with the Chargers outright winning.

The Chargers are at home, return Austin Ekeler, and are continuing to build off of some positive momentum. While I am worried about the putrid defense, the Chargers are built to win shootouts. The Dallas defense is incredible, but it showed last week that a great offense can take them apart. I think this game has some shootout potential. If that comes to pass, I easily prefer Justin Herbert over Dak Prescott.

I will open with this leg in my SGP. This means that I will very likely end up taking a worse price than what ParlayIQ suggests.

Austin Ekeler Over 51.5 Rushing Yards

Austin Ekeler returns and finds himself in a sneaky good matchup for running backs. Dallas is excellent against the pass and truly disrupts the passing game with immense pressure. That said, they allow plenty on the ground to opposing running backs.

Dallas is in the bottom-third of the league in yards per carry for opposing tailbacks. Allowing 4.5 yards per carry, the Cowboys don’t necessarily bottle up offense on the ground. This makes sense. Most of Dallas’ front is aggressive, lightning-fast rushers that are looking to get up field. Running right at this defense should benefit the Chargers.

The Chargers should aim to keep Herbert upright. Nothing will achieve this goal better than giving their best offensive player the ball in bunches. ParlayIQ loves this leg. Hopefully, including this over helps us catch up with ParlayIQ in terms of projected odds.

Dak Prescott Over 253.5 Passing Yards

Finally, while I don’t believe much in Dak Prescott, I simultaneously don’t believe very much in the Chargers’ defense. It is truly a wonder that Brandon Staley is still a head coach in the NFL. A defensive-minded coach with one of the worst defenses in the league each year. The Chargers continue to address the defense in the draft and in free agency to no avail.

In any event, the Chargers allowed a league-worst 299.8 passing yards per game through the first five weeks of the season. We can attribute a big chunk of that to the Dolphins. Even still, the Chargers continue to get shredded by the forward pass.

Even though Dak feels like a very, very average quarterback at this point, he possesses enough weapons around him to move the ball through the air. We will close our parlay out with the Dallas quarterback.