Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Odds, Prediction & Pick
Cowboys vs. Giants Odds
| Cowboys Odds | -3.5 |
| Giants Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Date | Sun, Sep. 10 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
Sunday’s NFL slate will conclude with a highly-anticipated matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott leads Cowboys offense
In 2022, Dak Prescott threw a career-worst 15 interceptions in only 12 games. He finished 9th in EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks and ranked 17th in PFF’s grading system for signal callers. Based on his prior production, last year appears likely to be Prescott’s floor – which was still quite good. Even his floor seemed to be a product of extremely poor luck. FTN charted only 24 interception-worthy throws for Prescott, which makes his 15 actual interceptions quite inflated compared to the league average. He enters 2023 as one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL and is surrounded by an abundance of talent at the skill positions.
Chaotic Cowboys defense loaded once again
In 2021, the Cowboys’ defense relied on a tremendous number of turnovers to generate success. Typically, generating turnovers at a high-rate is unsustainable year-over-year, but Dallas once again led the league in turnover rate in 2022. Part of Dallas’ success is due to their ability to consistently put opposing signal callers in stressful situations. In 2022, Dallas ranked second in the NFL in pressure rate. Facing a turnover-prone Daniel Jones tonight, expect the Cowboys to get at least one turnover on Sunday Night Football.
New York Giants
Can Daniel Jones repeat excellent 2022?
Last fall, Daniel Jones had a career-best year with new head coach Brian Daboll calling the shots. Daboll rarely asked Jones to do anything that didn’t play to his strengths, which resulted in only five interceptions, which was less than half of his career per game average. Though it is tempting to conclude that Daboll fixed Jones, the reality is that Jones still had 17 interception-worthy throws, according to FTN charting. He was likely far more lucky than good last season. We should see his numbers regress considerably in 2023 to be more in-line with his career track record.
Giants defense faces tough opening week challenge
On Sunday, New York will start rookies at both starting cornerback positions. Deonte Banks was a first-round draft choice out of Maryland, but doesn’t profile as an NFL star on Day 1. Tre Hawkins III was taken in the sixth round out of Old Dominion and will have plenty of speed to try to contain a speedy Dallas wide receiver corps. Xavier McKinney and Jason Pinnick make this secondary unit vulnerable downfield as well with shaky safety play.
Cowboys vs. Giants Picks & Predictions
The market in this matchup includes quite a bit of carryover from 2022, during which the Cowboys under-performed and the Giants over-performed. Though divisional games have a tendency to be highly-competitive, there is little doubt that the Cowboys are a far superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Trust them to cover a field goal in this spot. DraftKings has the best line at the time of posting, but other sportsbooks such as Fanatics offer good value on the -3.5 as well.
PICK: Cowboys -3 (-110, Fanatics)