Daily Batter Breakdown: Fri, April 25th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-25 16:43:45

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Fairly big night of DFS tonight with the 400k Sweet Spot on DraftKings, a $25 DFBC Qualifier on FanDuel and also the first we have seen out of DraftStreet’s big MLB event; there are satellites to the qualifiers up and running in the lobby. I won’t waste any time and get right into the picks.

		John Jaso
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.262	0.735	2.38%	0.333
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.231	0.643	0.00%	0.32
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Peacock – RIGHT			0.279	0.875	13.89%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.074	1.035	$2,300	$4,959	$6,850	$2,900	$52,200	$4,500	$7,100

John Jaso

Jaso is going to be your top punt catcher of the day, and makes a pretty solid one at that. He is extremely cheap almost min priced everywhere, will most likely be starting against the right handed Peacock in a solid position in the order, and also is going to be batting in one of the highest projected scoring offenses of the night. Jaso hits right handers very well and Peacock is not very good with a nice north of 6 ERA this year. The only downside to Jaso is that he will most likely be largely owned tonight so to fade or not to fade is the question.

		Paul Goldschmidt
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.325	0.886	3.90%	0.380
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.320	0.706	0.00%	0.316
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hernandez – RIGHT			0.264	0.689	3.66%	0.315
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$3,900	$7,914	$11,850	$4,700	$94,800	$8,200	$11,500

Paul Goldschmidt

I am trying to figure out the pricing on Goldschmidt on sites like FD and DS as he seems way too low on both those sites, and basically across the industry. Goldy is basically one of the safest plays on the board as he usually does something solid in every single game. I really like his upside tonight against Roberto Hernandez who has allowed a .916 OPS to right handed batters so far this year. Goldschmidt proved last year he can hit both handed pitchers for power and is way too cheap here for him hitting at home against a bad pitcher.

		Scooter Gennett
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.327	0.835	1.82%	0.361
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.370	0.963	3.70%	0.418
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Villanueva – RIGHT			0.279	0.764	8.75%	0.342
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.039	$3,100	$5,903	$8,200	$3,600	$61,400	$5,500	$6,700

Scooter Gennett

Gennett’s price has finally risen to a point where it might flatten out at and isn’t a complete steal. He has been producing very nicely and hitting at the top of the Brewers order so using him was somewhat of a no-brainer earlier. Now, it’s not so much but he does have a solid matchup today against Villanueva who has been completely inept in his last 2 starts giving up 5 and 9 runs. It doesn’t really matter which side of the playe you hit from, this year Villanueva is allowing a 1.000 OPS from both sides, but Gennett’s numbers are highly skewed towards right handed pitchers, one of whom he is facing today. Another bonus is that this should be a high scoring offense and he’s right at the top of it.

		Mike Moustakas
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.183	0.664	6.67%	0.287
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.222	0.834	11.11%	0.349
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Jimenez – RIGHT			0.226	0.668	9.21%	0.300
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.057	1.073	$3,000	$4,970	$8,650	$3,700	$62,000	$5,600	$6,400

Mike Moustakas

Vegas really doesn’t like Ubaldo in this game, and for good reason. Jimenez has a 1.88 WHIP on the season and has consistently allowed 4 runs/start. Moustakas does all of his damage against right handed pitching and has shown some extra power while not really doing anything else of not except for homering lately. I like Moustaksas for a GPP play but would really avoid him in cash games as an 0/4 is extremely likely from him. I do believe with the extra power he has been showing us that he does have 2 HR upside especially against gas can Ubaldo.

		Jose Reyes
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.278	0.778	5.56%	0.338
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.7	5.00%	0.304
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Peavy – RIGHT			0.238	0.736	8.06%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.045	$3,500	$7,477	$10,300	$4,000	$81,700	$7,600	$9,100

Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes has returned and his price is still manageable. In fact, he is really underpriced especially against Peavy. Reyes has always hit right handers very well and should get a nice bonus tonight hitting in the Rogers Centre from the left side of the plate. Shortstop is a tough position and Reyes is one of the top options while healthy.

		Shane Victorino
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT			0.276	0.732	5.80%	0.324
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,200		$7,900		$81,100	$6,800	$8,600

Shane Victorino

Victorino is back, but isn’t availble on DK or DS. He has always hit better from the rightside of the plate no matter if it’s against lefties or righties and his excursion into not being a switch hitter proved that last year. We know he will be hitting right handed tonight against Buehrle and his HR rate in the last few years has been really incredible hitting from the right side. Rogers Centre is a homer happy park and at his discounted price on the sites he is available he makes a steal tonight assuming he is in the lineup.

		Matt Joyce
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.391	1.136	4.35%	0.471
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	0.991	0.00%	0.395
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Johnson – RIGHT			0.346	1.012	12.80%	0.447
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.998	1.002	$3,400	$6,962	$9,800	$3,400	$64,100	$6,600	$8,800

Matt Joyce

Joyce has been a favorite play of Grinders recently, and a general guy who is highly owned in every game I have seen. There is good reason for that as his 1.125 OPS in the last 7 days with all of those coming against right handers. Erik Johnson has been good in the past 2 games but I’m still wary of him and believe he is pitching above his ability. The Rays are pegged at 4.5 today and are one of the highest projected scoring teams. Joyce should be hitting at the top of the lineup and his north of 1.100 OPS vs righties on the season makes him a wonderful play across the board at all of the prices he is at.

		Brandon Moss
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.733	3.33%	0.316
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.143	0.651	7.14%	0.275
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Peacock – RIGHT			0.279	0.875	13.89%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.074	1.035	$3,200	$7,171	$9,450	$4,000	$74,000	$6,000	$10,800

Brandon Moss

Another guy from the Athletics, I expect Moss to be one of the highest owned players on the planet tonight. He’s a guy that absolutely destroys right handed pitching against a very poor right handed pitcher in Minute Maid Park with a team that is projected to score 5 runs tonight also being away from home. He’s the best play in my eyes especially since he’s not at the elite level of pricing however he is more likely than anyone to double dong tonight.

		Rajai Davis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.289	0.728	2.22%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.304	0.755	0.00%	0.35
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Correia – RIGHT			0.306	0.803	4.20%	0.353
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.020	1.026	$3,400	$7,584	$10,250	$4,300	$68,200	$6,500	$10,300

Rajai Davis

Rajai Davis is my off the wall pick who won’t be highly owned who I really think can have a solid outing tonight. He’s extremely hot with the bat and seeing the ball well right now which should lead to Davis getting on. When he does get on, he’s a monster on the basepaths scoring runs and stealing bases especially against right handed pitching. While Correia isn’t bad at holding runners, Davis is in another class and can always swipe you multiple bags with HR upside as well. The other nice thing is that Correia is really struggling to get right handers out right now and he has never been too good at getting them out either which would help Davis’ OBP.

		Domonic Brown
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.189	0.481	0.00%	0.215
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.192	0.445	0.00%	0.198
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Collmenter – RIGHT			0.265	0.671	8.33%	0.318
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	0.970	$3,100	$6,256	$7,500	$3,500	$67,600	$6,400	$9,100

Domonic Brown

I should preface this by saying I like all of the Phillies lefties tonight inside Chase Field, but I like Brown because he’s extremely cheap on all of the sites. Brown kills right handed pitching and Collmenter is allowing a .317 average and a .787 OPS this year to lefties, and has never really done well against left handed batters. I think Brown breaks his HR drought tonight in a big way at Chase Field.