Daily Batter Breakdown: Friday, April 10th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-04-11 19:20:51

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top-tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Generally, I will only include guys from the night games in this column, but for today I have included a few from the afternoon games as there are a lot of all day slates available. The Rockies and the Cubs are both fantastic plays, especially on FanDuel, where there has not been an adjustment for Coors Field prices. You can use anyone from that game and feel great about it, so I ignored it for the purposes of today’s article.

		Salvador Perez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.226	0.632	3.01%	0.277
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.240	0.711	4.00%	0.297
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Santiago – LEFT		0.246	0.732	1.79%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.919	0.000	$3,500	$7,450	$3,800	$61,200

Salvador Perez

Perez has been hitting well to start the year, and the only thing that I really do not like is that he continues to hit lower in the lineup. Seventh is not really where I want my players hitting, but he is facing a lefty in Santiago with a fairly high over/under and is at an extremely cheap price. Perez is hitting the ball well, but my concern is that the Royals are going to rest him in this game because of their commitment to keep him fresh this year. Make sure you check the lineup before lock on this one.

		Jose Abreu
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.353	1.098	7.35%	0.462
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.261	0.711	4.35%	0.319
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Milone – LEFT		0.272	0.771	2.09%	0.339
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$4,500	$11,200	$5,500	$85,100

Jose Abreu

I love Abreu today. His north of 1 OPS against lefties and his over a 460 wOBA against lefties makes him almost an auto play for me when he gets up against a left-hander in US Cellular Field. His price is affordable on FD and he is cheaper on DK than some of the Coors Field guys but with a better matchup. Milone’s numbers aren’t eye-poppingly awful, but this game has the highest over/under other than the Coors Field game and Abreu has been mashing.

		Paul Goldschmidt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.384	1.115	4.11%	0.470
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Anderson – LEFT		0.240	0.675	0.83%	0.291
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.154	0.000	$4,900	$10,850	$5,600	$82,800

Paul Goldschmidt

There are many solid hitters at first base today, and Goldschmidt is one of the best of that crop. He has a .428 wOBA and a 1.009 OPS career against left-handers, and we all know that he becomes somewhat of a plug and play option against average lefties. He will bat in a hitter’s park here against Brett Anderson, who has not been great in spring training, but has decent numbers against righties overall. I would take Abreu first and Goldy second here.

		Matt Carpenter
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.277	0.762	1.46%	0.343
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.350	0.858	0.00%	0.391
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Marquis – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.963	0.000	$3,800	$8,800	$4,700	$63,500

Matt Carpenter

This has to be a joke, right? There is no way that Jason Marquis is pitching still, right? Not that it matters because it makes picking hitters very easy. First of all, Great American is no easy ballpark to pitch in for pitchers and second, Marquis has given up a 4.98 career xFIP against lefties with a .351, both numbers which have declined sharply in the last few years. I have no idea how he expects to keep Carpenter and his almost .400 OBP off the basepaths, especially because he crushes righties.

		Aramis Ramirez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.327	1.024	7.92%	0.440
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.211	0.474	0.00%	0.208
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Locke – LEFT		0.271	0.777	1.97%	0.342
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$3,200	$8,550	$4,200	$55,000

Aramis Ramirez

Aramis’ price is very affordable and I expect everyone to be off of him today especially after the Brewer’s stacks at the beginning of the season were so popular. He is still hitting in a very hitter friendly park against Locke, and while Locke has had reverse splits in the past (being better against right-handers than left), I still think Ramirez is a solid play not only because of his cheap price, but because he continues to basically hit a 1 OPS and a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching and should be in the middle of a Brewers lineup with a decent over/under.

		Gregorio Petit
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.379	1.124	6.90%	0.485
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.222	0.633	0.00%	0.29
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Holland – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$2,200	$5,000	$2,500	$35,000

Gregorio Petit

This is my bizarre play of the day. Petit is expected to get the start for the Yankees against lefties, and he has very nice career numbers against left-handers including an OPS above .900 OPS. I have never been a big fan of Miley, whose advanced stats say he is nothing more than a spot starter, which should give Petit the ability to have a great few at bats. The problem here is that he is in all likelihood going to be batting ninth. Petit is so cheap and gives upside in this game especially where the Yankees should be able to score some runs.

		Avisail Garcia
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.333	0.992	6.67%	0.421
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.091	0.182	0.00%	0.081
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Milone – LEFT		0.272	0.771	2.09%	0.339
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$3,500	$7,300	$4,300	$60,800

Avisail Garcia

If you are not stacking Rockies and Cubs in the early games (especially on DK where the prices make it difficult), then you can “contrarian” stack the White Sox. This has the highest over/under on the board outside of the Coors Field game, and even with Milone’s decent numbers against right-handed hitting (.321 wOBA, 4.04 xFIP), I still think the right handed bats of the White Sox have a shot at getting to him. Garcia has a nice .340 wOBA against lefties for his career and I expect him to hit fourth behind Abreu again.

		Jason Heyward
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.304	0.820	2.09%	0.363
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.235	0.644	0.00%	0.301
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Marquis – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.963	0.000	$3,600	$9,450	$4,900	$68,500

Jason Heyward

Marquis’ career xFIP is fairly terrible and while he has a different defense in front of him this year, he is still not a good pitcher. The Cardinals lineup will likely go Carpenter, then Heyward, and with Heyward’s ability to crush right-handers I doubt Marquis’ first start back from Tommy John goes very well. The prices on both guys are nice for the matchup and Heyward has a solid .367 wOBA against righties.

		Steve Pearce
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.327	1.109	9.18%	0.472
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.182	0.853	9.09%	0.369
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT		0.289	0.752	0.00%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.932	0.000	$4,100	$7,200	$4,300	$63,900

Steve Pearce

Adam Jones is a solid play as well against Buehrle who struggles to keep right handers in the park, but Pearce has almost the same wOBA against lefties as Jones and is a bit cheaper on DraftKings. FanDuel has an aggressive price on him, but he is very affordable and extremely flexible on DK. I really like him there in his first game at Camden this season, which is known to be a very friendly park to hitters and Pearce in general.

		Bryce Harper
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.276	0.769	3.89%	0.338
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.874	0.00%	0.4
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Williams – RIGHT		0.289	0.787	2.51%	0.348
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.929	0.000	$4,300	$10,600	$4,700	$75,400

Bryce Harper

There are so many good options today with all of the poor pitchers taking the mound. Harper is one of the best at his current price point. He mashes right-handed pitching with a .375 wOBA and an OPS which almost hits .900, and is facing off against everyone’s favorite guy to stack against in Jerome Williams. While this Nationals lineup is missing a lot of their power to begin the season, Harper is still protected by Zimmerman, who is hitting well to start it off and should be able to do damage today.