Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, April 28th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-04-30 16:19:18

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Brian McCann
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.209	0.633	4.19%	0.282
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.208	0.49	0.00%	0.221
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Odorizzi – RIGHT		0.226	0.663	2.86%	0.294
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.945	0.000	$2,800	$9,050	$3,800	$66,700

Brian McCann

McCann is more of a GPP play today considering his likelihood of striking out compared with Odorizzi’s high K%, but also because of Odorizzi’s high fly ball rate and McCann’s power in Yankee Stadium. Odorizzi seems to be either great or horrible and if he is horrible, McCann has two home run upside with his .355 career wOBA and .204 career ISO against right handers. Definitely not a cash game play because of Odorizzi’s potential to shut him down, but the upside is there.

		Brandon Moss
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.228	0.768	5.08%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.353	1.224	11.76%	0.497
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.296	0.828	4.26%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.950	0.000	$3,500		$4,800

Brandon Moss

If you are playing an early slate with the Royals and Indians, the Moss/Guthrie matchup is one of the biggest split differentials in all of baseball. Moss absolutely mashes right-handed pitching with a .346 wOBA and a .228 ISO in his career with numbers even higher than that in the last three years. On the other hand, Guthrie has consistently been one of the worst pitchers against left-handed batters allowing a 4.66 xFIP and a 1.5 HR/9. There is dual HR upside here.

		Matt Adams
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.318	0.854	2.96%	0.367
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.316	0.842	5.26%	0.365
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gonzalez – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.100	0.000	$2,800	$8,900	$4,500	$58,000

Matt Adams

The Phillies are using Severino Gonzalez in this game today, and while I admittedly had no idea who he is, he did not have very good minor league stats, even at AA. He gave up a 1.3 HR/9 at AA in 2014 and a 4.6 xFIP there so I cannot see this start going well in St. Louis. I like Adams here as he is the most likely to homer and is not that expensive across the industry. Adams crushes right handers and the Cardinals should put him in great spots to drive in runs today.

		Dee Gordon
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.287	0.699	0.42%	0.310
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.393	0.807	0.00%	0.361
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montero – RIGHT		0.293	0.923	5.43%	0.401
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$3,500	$8,950	$4,400	$66,500

Dee Gordon

Old reliable Gordon is in play again today. With FanDuel’s reduced pricing, $3,500 is nothing to pay for Gordon’s multi-steal ability against right handers. I am a little bit worried about Montero not pitching the whole game, but his 5.11 xFIP last year does not inspire confidence that he can get batters out consistently. I know he is a major prospect and has electric stuff, but the numbers just are not there yet. Gordon should be able to reach base and steal a bag against a righty.

		Kris Bryant
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.348	0.943	0.00%	0.418
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Locke – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.000	$3,500	$10,250	$4,600	$73,100

Kris Bryant

Bryant will surely be one of the more popular guys at third today against Locke as he was projected for a major amount of homers, but has not hit one yet. Trust me, they are coming, but he is providing fantasy value in other categories even without the long ball. His price is relatively inexpensive and although Locke is not a terrible pitcher, he does have a 1.25 HR/9. Bryant’s numbers against lefties in the beginning of his Major League career aren’t great, but he is definitely a great risk with upside today.

		Asdrubal Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.236	0.696	2.89%	0.310
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.668	0.00%	0.298
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Whitley – RIGHT		0.313	0.866	3.68%	0.380
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.945	0.000	$2,200	$6,700	$3,900	$51,800

Asdrubal Cabrera

Cabrera is minimum salary on FanDuel today and makes a solid SS punt if you do not want to use Gordon or Tulo. He hits third in the Rays lineup who will be facing Chase Whitley who has limited major league experience. Whitley has solid numbers overall so I am not heavily targeting Cabrera but he does have a decent amount of power and a .325 wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rays are expeced to score some runs today and Cabrera should be a part of it.

		Nelson Cruz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.314	0.977	5.84%	0.416
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.217	0.715	4.35%	0.297
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Detwiler – LEFT		0.304	0.848	0.00%	0.368
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.052	0.000	$5,000	$11,500	$5,300	$101,300

Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz should be the most popular play today and might make a solid fade in GPPs because of his high ownership percentage, especially on FanDuel. Cruz’s numbers this year are absurd with a 450 wRC+, a 1.000 ISO, a 2.100 OPS, and a .831 wOBA and while those numbers are obviously not sustainable, it gives you an idea how lights out he has been against lefties in this small sample. Detwiler is not a great lefty and the Mariners have the top projected scoring offense of the day.

		Andrew McCutchen
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.280	0.912	6.00%	0.397
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.143	0.487	0.00%	0.242
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wood – LEFT		0.293	0.837	0.77%	0.371
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.000	$3,900	$10,850	$5,000	$81,200

Andrew McCutchen

It is only a matter of time before McCutchen gets it going, especially against lefties. Travis Wood seems like the best candidate for that right now. Cutch’s career numbers against lefties are ridiculous: .420 wOBA, .244 ISO and a .985 OPS. He should be targeted at all times against lefties not named Kershaw despite his slow start, and Travis Wood’s 4.6 career xFIP supports this matchup today as well.

		David Peralta
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.312	0.848	3.16%	0.369
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Kendrick – RIGHT		0.280	0.826	3.75%	0.360
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.154	0.000	$2,400	$7,200	$4,100	$43,900

David Peralta

It is not a guarantee that Peralta plays today, but his $2,400 price point makes him one of the greatest plays if he hits fourth like he has been. Kendrick is terrible as noted by his 6.64 xFIP this year and career 5 xFIP and gives the Diamondbacks a 4.5 over/under today right up there with the Mariners line. Peralta has destroyed righties as well with a .369 wOBA and a .194 ISO. Peralta will be popular today, but because he is so cheap, if he hits you will need to have him.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.318	0.880	4.28%	0.379
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	0.795	0.00%	0.346
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Pelfrey – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.116	0.000	$3,400	$9,250	$4,600	$75,400

J.D. Martinez

I am a little bit worried about the R/R matchup of the Tigers and Pelfrey but the numbers tell me not to be. Pelfrey has been miserable against right handed batters in the last few years, getting obliterated in 2014 in a small sample and consistently having an over 4 xFIP. Martinez significantly improved his numbers against righties last year and while he originally was a lefty masher he still has solid numbers against RHP in the last two years with a .375 wOBA and a .210 ISO.