Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, April 7th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-04-09 14:19:06

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, when there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Stephen Vogt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.291	0.770	3.48%	0.337
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.316	0.853	2.55%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.023	0.000	$2,500	$6,250	$3,500	$50,600

Stephen Vogt

How deep are the Rangers at pitcher? Not really deep at all, considering they are throwing out Colby Lewis in their second game of the season. Lewis is notorious for being one of the most homer-prone pitchers in the majors and his .373 wOBA given up to lefties last year is not going to change that perception. The A’s felt confident enough in Vogt to allow their other catchers to leave and give Vogt the starting gig, and while I am not high on him when I watch him, the stats say somewhat otherwise. He has improved his ISO and OPS each of the last three years in the majors and was a great play at this price last year. Catcher is somewhat devoid of good options and against one of the most homer prone pitchers in the majors he makes a solid play.

		Billy Butler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.255	0.653	1.21%	0.291
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.277	0.823	0.00%	0.355
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.023	0.000	$3,200	$7,500	$3,500	$55,800

Billy Butler

Early in the season, I’m interested in finding guys who are underpriced but have career numbers which indicate better success than their price. Butler had five straight seasons of double digit homers and averaged a .300 batting average and .800 OPS against righties before 2014, but he struggled mightily last year. I think this year will be a rebound year, as he is an established hitter and has shown extra pop in the spring. Butler is cheap and is going to be overlooked today, but he faces Colby Lewis, who is one of the most homer-prone pitchers in the majors.

		Scooter Gennett
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.307	0.802	2.24%	0.346
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lyles – RIGHT		0.286	0.844	2.86%	0.372
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$3,000	$5,700	$4,100	$51,700

Scooter Gennett

I know a lot of people are going to fade Gennett today because of his poor performance on Opening Day and the fact that his price has risen on DraftKings. I think that is a mistake, as baseball is more about choosing players in good positions to succeed instead of playing favorites. He has almost a career .370 wOBA against right handed pitching, and while that is not All-Star quality, it is hard to find a second baseman with a great shot at going deep, especially on this slate. He has stolen base potential, and while I would like to see him batting higher in the order, seventh will do.

		Evan Longoria
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.273	0.824	3.25%	0.351
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chen – LEFT		0.262	0.746	1.35%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$3,800	$8,900	$4,300	$65,300

Evan Longoria

Longoria has been a lefty masher in his career, and while he had his worst season against lefties ever in 2014, I would expect a major rebound in 2015. I like that he homered in the previous game, but I like him even more against Chen, who gives it up to righties. Don’t forget about the fact that he is at home and going to be hitting in the middle of the order. Longo will be low owned because of the poor perception of the Rays lineup, but still makes a great play here based on history.

		Troy Tulowitzki
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.321	0.930	5.06%	0.404
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Garza – RIGHT		0.234	0.652	1.96%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$4,400	$10,550	$5,100	$83,000

Troy Tulowitzki

Well, I am not really sure what else to say here. I do not like Gordon against a lefty, and there are really no other shortstop plays. The shortstop position this year looks like it is going to be Tulo or bust on short slates, and if you remember the last couple of years Tulo starts strong. He is expensive but well worth it and is one of the most reliable hitters. Use him at short and rely on your other value plays to make up the salary difference.

		Dexter Fowler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.260	0.737	1.83%	0.333
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lynn – RIGHT		0.243	0.697	1.78%	0.314
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.000	$2,900	$8,100	$3,800	$48,800

Dexter Fowler

Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Fowler is very cheap on DraftKings, and as the leadoff man in the revamped Cubs offense, he is going to make a solid target on many nights this year. I think this is one of the last times we see him under $4,000, and with SB potential with a .341 career wOBA and solid ISO against RHP, he makes a very solid and as low of a risk play in the OF for this price that you can get.

		Nori Aoki
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.259	0.658	0.27%	0.297
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – RIGHT		0.298	0.832	1.83%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.154	0.000		$7,150	$3,700

Nori Aoki

Aoki is now leading off for the Giants, and if you read a lot of my stuff you will learn that I love a cheap leadoff man in a solid offense with stolen base potential. Aoki is still cheap and with his solid on base percentage, he should continue to get to first, get moved over, and score runs for a Giants offense that really is in need of someone to produce runs. Aoki does not have much power, so I would not use him in GPP lineups all that often, but his OBP, leadoff status, and success against RHP makes him a target in cash.

		Alejandro De Aza
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.277	0.766	2.05%	0.337
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Karns – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$2,900	$6,950	$3,800	$41,000

Alejandro De Aza

There are not a whole ton of games today, but the Orioles/Rays game sports one of the highest over/unders despite playing at the Trop. De Aza might not strike you as a great outfielder, but he has decent power with a .150 ISO last year against RHP and faces Karns, who is unproven at the major league level. De Aza will lead off most likely for the Orioles and does not cost a pretty penny, which makes him a solid play today.

		Mike Trout
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.275	0.910	6.04%	0.398
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Paxton – LEFT		0.224	0.629	2.30%	0.281
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.825	0.000	$5,100	$10,700	$5,000	$83,700

Mike Trout

Trout homered last night and it may be somewhat of a cop-out to use him here, but I am not sold on Paxton yet. I know he is a solid starter and there is a lot expected of him, but he is only here to split the King and Iwakuma, and the Angels have a solid offense. We all know about Trout, and despite his price he is one of the best hitters around. With some value at pitcher, you should be able to fit Trout and Tulo today without completely destroying your lineups.

		Nolan Arenado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.278	0.776	3.13%	0.339
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Garza – RIGHT		0.234	0.652	1.96%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$3,500	$8,650	$4,300	$67,100

Nolan Arenado

I am not sure that the price on Arenado is quite correct this year. There is a lot of buzz about him being a great season long pick, but I think until his price gets well north of 4K he is going to be a great play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Arenado mashes left handers, but what is interesting about Garza’s 2014 is that he was actually worse against right handed batters than lefties. I think using Arenado in this situation is not only going to be somewhat contrarian but also smart.