Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, May 12th
Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.
The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.
 | Stephen Vogt | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.291 | 0.770 | 3.48% | 0.337 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.286 | 0.937 | 9.52% | 0.401 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Masterson – RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.910 | 2.54% | 0.400 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.023 | 0.000 | $3,700 | $9,450 | $3,900 | $80,600 | ||
Stephen Vogt
Vogt hits the recommendations again tonight against Masterson. Masterson has not been good this year with a 4.73 xFIP against left-handed batters and has generally struggled greatly against them in his career while dominating right-handers. Vogt is at a .469 wOBA against righties with a 1.120 OPS and has been one of the best hitters against right-handed pitching. He remains extremely cheap for whatever reason and will be very popular today.
 | Adrian Gonzalez | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.303 | 0.901 | 5.32% | 0.384 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.450 | 1.356 | 5.00% | 0.552 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Haren – RIGHT | 0.223 | 0.665 | 4.08% | 0.290 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.907 | 0.000 | $4,500 | $11,900 | $5,000 | $96,700 | ||
Adrian Gonzalez
First base is always a position to fill in close to last because there are so many good options. Finding the best first baseman usually means success for your team and Gonzalez has a great shot at that today. Haren has been oddly effective this year but his BABIP is in the .210 range with a 4.83 xFIP. I really think there is a regression coming and with the Dodgers being one of the best offensive teams in the nation this year, they should be able to get to Haren early and often. Gonzalez has been out of this world and impossible to get out in the early part of the season, which should make him one of the best cash plays.
 | Albert Pujols | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.275 | 0.807 | 4.61% | 0.347 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.286 | 0.703 | 3.57% | 0.297 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Kendrick – RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.00% | 0.321 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.919 | 0.000 | $2,900 | $9,450 | $4,300 | $70,400 | ||
Albert Pujols
One of my favorite hitting matchups of the night is the Angels against Kyle Kendrick tonight. The Angels have been one of the worst offenses in the game, especially against RHP so far, but what is the best remedy for a struggling offense? Kyle Kendrick, who has a 6.78 FIP against RHB with a 3.05 HR/9 and a .424 wOBA. Those numbers are probably unsustainable, but it shows just how terrible he has been and how good the Angels chance at breaking out tonight. LA is -200 tonight with the highest over under on the board in a day with a lot of low over/unders.
 | Dustin Pedroia | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.250 | 0.727 | 1.97% | 0.322 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.238 | 0.606 | 0.00% | 0.276 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Pomeranz – LEFT | 0.195 | 0.563 | 2.77% | 0.259 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.023 | 0.000 | $2,900 | $9,000 | $3,800 | $68,700 | ||
Dustin Pedroia
Pedroia sits at $3,800 tonight on DraftKings, which seems like a steal to me. Pomeranz was good last year against RHB but does have a career 4.58 xFIP against righties, which is in line with this year’s numbers. Pedroia has a nice .379 wOBA this year while maintaining a .188 BABIP which is an incredible stat. He has been hitting for great power despite having a ton of balls put in play caught, and regression will be coming. He is a nice cash game play at this price, and with him hitting at the top of the Red Sox lineup, is also a good GPP play at second.
 | Alex Guerrero | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | |||||||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.250 | 0.94 | 8.33% | 0.405 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Haren – RIGHT | |||||||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.907 | 0.000 | $5,550 | $2,800 | $50,100 | |||
Alex Guerrero
Of course we are never really sure if Guerrero is going to get the playing time, but if he does, he is a solid play, especially at third on DraftKings for $2,800. He is not as good of a play on FanDuel for $3,000 in the OF, but does have a .472 wOBA against RHP with a 1.121 OPS and is facing Haren who is prone to blowups. Guerrero makes a nice GPP cap saving option if he is in the lineup somewhere.
 | Elian Herrera | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.226 | 0.484 | 0.00% | 0.214 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.188 | 0.691 | 6.25% | 0.313 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Sale – LEFT | 0.212 | 0.608 | 1.11% | 0.272 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.002 | 0.000 | $2,400 | $5,000 | $2,200 | $35,000 | ||
Elian Herrera
If Herrera gets the start again today, I am not sure how you can ignore him aside from the fact that he is hitting against Sale. He is priced at the minimum on DraftKings and has reached double figure fantasy points in the last two games while being productive in his other games. I am recommending him as a GPP play because he does not have a great track record in the majors but is mashing the ball this year in his short 13 AB sample. You really cannot go wrong with a min price guy in a hitter’s park with a bit of power – my issue is that he’s facing Sale, however Sale has been fairly terrible this year and faces a righty heavy Brewers lineup at Miller.
 | Gregory Polanco | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.262 | 0.727 | 2.56% | 0.326 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.143 | 0.478 | 0.00% | 0.22 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| O’Sullivan – RIGHT | |||||||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.929 | 0.000 | $3,100 | $8,650 | $4,300 | $56,800 | ||
Gregory Polanco
I love that Polanco has been leading off, which makes his price on DraftKings and FanDuel extremely affordable. He has not shown a huge amount of upside this year, but it is there – he has the ability to grab a couple of bags and hit for power. I love the matchup with O’Sullivan, who has a 5.53 career xFIP against left-handers and has allowed a 1.87 career HR/9. Polanco is going to have one of the highest upsides on the board tonight, as the Pirates are huge favorites at Citizens Bank.
 | Kole Calhoun | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.277 | 0.793 | 3.85% | 0.348 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.250 | 0.563 | 0.00% | 0.241 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Kendrick – RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.826 | 3.75% | 0.360 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 0.919 | 0.000 | $3,100 | $9,400 | $4,300 | $72,300 | ||
Kole Calhoun
I mentioned above how terrible Kendrick is against RHB, but the incredible thing is that he has been even WORSE against left-handed batters. An 8.01 FIP with a .474 wOBA and an OPS over 1.000 is usually reserved for the top hitters in the game, but Kendrick is allowing that to all lefties! Yes, he pitches in Coors Field, but he has been absolutely awful with his xFIP even at 6.20 and should be easily targeted by lefty bats tonight.
 | Anthony Gose | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.238 | 0.641 | 1.06% | 0.295 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.412 | 1.003 | 0.00% | 0.44 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Gibson – RIGHT | 0.267 | 0.706 | 0.82% | 0.315 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.003 | 0.000 | $3,200 | $8,250 | $4,100 | $51,300 | ||
Anthony Gose
The Tigers get to face Kyle Gibson, who has a career xFIP of 4.91 against LHB. He does not allow a lot of homers (more against RHB but not a ton), so a stack probably is not the best route to go, but Gose has been putting the ball in play extremely well and is leading off. I am expecting a regression on his BABIP and Gose’s average to fall at some point, but this does not look like a good time for it to fall.
 | Alex Gordon | ||||||
| Daily Breakdown | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Left/Right Splits | 0.271 | 0.782 | 2.78% | 0.345 | |||
| Last 7 Days Splits | 0.350 | 0.95 | 0.00% | 0.421 | |||
| Opp SP vs. LR | Avg | OPS | HR% | wOBA | |||
| Martinez – RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.832 | 3.57% | 0.366 | |||
| PARK-1 | PARK-LR | FD | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| 1.052 | 0.000 | $3,300 | $9,600 | $4,700 | $73,200 | ||
Alex Gordon
Ah yes, my old friend Nick Martinez. His 5.68 xFIP has improved drastically this year, especially over the first few starts. I am still worried despite his improvements in K/BB and the fact that he has now allowed a HR yet this year against lefties in 15 innings pitched. Martinez is just not this good, and a team with a lot of power lefties like the Royals should be able to expose his weaknesses today. Gordon has a .388 wOBA this year against righties with a decent ISO and has reduced his K% a lot. The Royals are in a hitter’s park and I like his chances to do something good today.