Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, May 19th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-05-21 14:08:57

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Disclaimer – The game at Coors Field is set at a 10 over/under today with a couple of poor pitchers. Hitters from that game are going to be solid plays despite the price, so I have omitted them from this article.

		Stephen Vogt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.305	0.869	5.03%	0.376
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.231	0.96	7.69%	0.405
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hernandez – RIGHT		0.244	0.730	2.19%	0.325
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$3,800	$9,100	$4,100	$73,200

Stephen Vogt

Vogt graces this column again. I am not going to stop using him during cold streaks with good matchups. He has been the best hitting catcher this year with a .455 wOBA and a 1.085 OPS against righties despite a couple of lengthy droughts. Hernandez has been strangely effective this year but still sports a 5.30 xFIP against lefties, and he has been even worse against righties, although his career numbers indicate struggles against lefties. We have a hitter’s park here, and although Oakland is one of the worst teams in baseball, I would expect some of the lefties to do damage here.

		Edwin Encarnacion
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.269	0.861	5.04%	0.375
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.182	1.035	18.18%	0.427
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Santiago – LEFT		0.245	0.727	0.00%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$4,200	$11,350	$5,200	$88,800

Edwin Encarnacion

The Toronto righties are some of my favorite plays on the night. Encarnacion is very expensive but is definitely worth it at first base today. He hits nearly the same against righties and lefties but is at home in the comfy confines of the Rogers Centre, where he destroys the ball. He is being pitched to by Santiago, who has over a 5 xFIP this year against right-handed hitters. Encarnacion may not be all that highly owned because of his price, but he is one of the better bets for two HRs.

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.317	0.850	2.50%	0.366
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.160	0.36	0.00%	0.157
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gonzalez – RIGHT		0.252	0.754	3.60%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.932	0.000	$3,000	$7,850	$4,300	$68,800

Robinson Cano

Cano really does not do a lot for you in DFS nowadays while hitting in Safeco, and he has struggled starting out of the gate this year. He has always been great against right-handed pitching though, with a .378 career wOBA and multiple years over .400. He gets to face Miguel Gonzalez, who has been solid this year but only has a .264 BABIP, indicating that some of the balls are going to be dropping in for hits soon. Cano is more of a cash game play, but he does have the ability to homer and will be hitting in a hitter’s park for once. I’m looking at using him cautiously, especially where I like his price like on FanDuel.

		Josh Donaldson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.298	1.034	8.99%	0.440
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.796	4.17%	0.358
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Santiago – LEFT		0.245	0.727	0.00%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,600	$10,350	$4,700	$86,900

Josh Donaldson

I talked a bit above about Santiago’s struggles against righties this year and I am not expecting it to get any better today against Toronto, who boasts one of the top right-handed hitting lineups in the majors. Donaldson was known last year for obliterating lefties with a .429 wOBA and a 1.007 OPS, numbers which were in line with his previous year. He is even BETTER this year so far with a .547 wOBA and a 1.275 OPS. He is going to be very popular today, but fade at your own risk.

		Adrian Beltre
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.337	0.976	4.57%	0.415
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.357	0.982	7.14%	0.408
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Miley – LEFT		0.265	0.759	2.78%	0.334
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$3,200	$9,750	$4,500	$84,400

Adrian Beltre

Beltre has had about the same wOBA against lefties that Cano has against righties and is nearly the same price here in a hitter’s park. Beltre had not had as much power early in his career but naturally developed it later in his career and now boasts one of the better ISOs year in and year out. I am not a big fan of Wade Miley, who owns a 5.31 xFIP this year against right-handed batters, which may go down as it is much worse than his career numbers, but he is pitching in a different park. Beltre does have the ability to get a huge apex height, which is key for getting the ball over the green monster. He is a somewhat contrarian pick at third, but I still think he’s in line for a good day.

		Chris Davis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.200	0.718	6.00%	0.312
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.143	0.515	4.76%	0.224
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Walker – RIGHT		0.292	0.811	1.79%	0.358
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.932	0.000	$3,300	$9,100	$4,200	$54,500

Chris Davis

Without focusing on Coors, two other games stand out to me, which is the Orioles/Mariners game and the Angels/Blue Jays matchup. Both are at a 9 over/under right now and have solid hitting teams (except the Angels so far). Walker has definitely been solid this year and is being BABIPed to death, so I am absolutely not advocating a Baltimore stack, but I do think that Chris Davis has GPP upside like he always does. He is cheap on FanDuel (who isn’t I guess) and affordable on DK with multi-positional eligibility. He will strike out a lot, but at Camden, if Walker is a bit wild, or does not have his best stuff, we could see Davis go long twice.

		Kole Calhoun
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.279	0.783	3.51%	0.343
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.350	0.859	0.00%	0.38
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Sanchez – RIGHT		0.250	0.810	4.31%	0.360
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$2,900	$8,700	$4,300	$64,900

Kole Calhoun

I love Calhoun today against Sanchez, who I have picked on a ton in the early going here. It is not necessarily his fault, as the Rogers Centre is one of the hardest places to pitch without consistently giving up HR after HR. Sanchez has allowed a 5.8 xFIP while allowing a .427 wOBA against left-handed hitters, and with Calhoun hitting cleanup now for the Angels, we could see him post a very nice score on the board if he is able to take one deep against Sanchez, who has allowed a 1.9 HR/9 this year.

		Brock Holt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.279	0.703	1.16%	0.314
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.267	0.753	0.00%	0.335
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gallardo – RIGHT		0.238	0.671	2.21%	0.299
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$2,300	$5,000	$3,100	$47,500

Brock Holt

Holt is min-priced on FanDuel and is cheap on DraftKings, and he makes a solid play against Gallardo today. I am interested to see where the Red Sox slot him in the lineup (if he is in at all), and if he is at the top of the lineup he would be one of my better dollar saving plays of the day. Gallardo has been miserable against lefties this year with a 4.83 xFIP and is in a hitter’s park, especially for lefties in Fenway. Holt has also hit well this year against righties with a .356 wOBA. He has a little bit of power, but has a decent amount of speed and contact and is somewhat proven for a min-price guy.

		Seth Smith
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.267	0.808	3.09%	0.353
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.222	0.652	5.56%	0.288
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gonzalez – RIGHT		0.252	0.754	3.60%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.932	0.000	$2,200	$7,650	$3,700	$58,200

Seth Smith

Another cap saver who can allow you to grab whatever pitcher you want would be Seth Smith. The Mariners lefties are definitely one of my targets today against Gonzalez in Camden Yards, not necessarily because Gonzalez is not good, but because of a good lefty lineup and a hitter’s park. Smith has led off on days against right-handed pitching recently, and if he does I would take his career .361 wOBA against righties as a min-price guy and definitely plug him in (at least on FanDuel).

		Gregory Polanco
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.260	0.713	1.92%	0.317
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.136	0.433	0.00%	0.227
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Nolasco – RIGHT		0.322	0.892	3.05%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.977	0.000	$2,900	$7,700	$3,500	$59,900

Gregory Polanco

Polanco has been struggling a lot lately and is hitting in PNC tonight, which is going to drive his ownership down, but I like him as a GPP gamble against Nolasco. Despite shutting down the Tigers in the last start, Nolasco still has a 5.11 xFIP against left-handed hitters and Polanco should be at the top of the lineup with run and RBI opportunities. Polanco has not been great at all this year but has a little bit of speed and some power. There really is not much to look at in terms of MLB history to expect an improvement, however he has been regarded as one of the best prospects and is not going to break the bank today. In a low scoring game in PNC, I would definitely only advocate as a GPP play.