Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, April 15th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-04-18 18:23:15

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.304	0.875	4.76%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.292	0.955	8.33%	0.407
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Matzek – LEFT		0.300	0.848	0.83%	0.372
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.920	0.000	$4,400	$9,850	$4,300	$71,800

Buster Posey

I am watching the lineup to make sure Posey is in after his rest day, but I would imagine that he will be at least batting today against Matzek. We all know about Posey’s ability to rake against left-handers, so the only question is can Matzek hold him down. A 4.47 xFIP last year and a .372 wOBA given up to righties does not bring any confidence, even in AT&T Park, and I believe Posey is your top catcher bet of the day.

		Mike Zunino
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.252	0.722	3.82%	0.319
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.167	0.417	0.00%	0.201
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Anderson – LEFT		0.240	0.675	0.83%	0.291
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.907	0.000	$2,400	$6,750	$3,600	$51,200

Mike Zunino

Zunino is a GPP play for me today, not only because of his home run upside, but because I doubt that anyone is going to have him. He is cheap on FanDuel and reasonable on DraftKings, and while he has had a miserable start to the season, he did smash 22 home runs last year and managed a .205 ISO. There are a lot of people touting Brett Anderson today, but I really like this Mariners offense, even in a pitcher’s park. I think that Zunino will have chances to make his mark despite some overall poor numbers.

		Lucas Duda
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.273	0.915	6.95%	0.394
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.286	0.681	0.00%	0.309
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Williams – RIGHT		0.289	0.787	2.51%	0.348
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.847	0.000	$3,600	$9,000	$3,500	$68,200

Lucas Duda

The absence of Wright is concerning to me, as there will be a little bit less protection for Duda in the lineup, but he carries major power (.270 ISO in 2014). He is expected to have a bounce back season, and gets a very nice matchup today against Jerome Williams despite being in Citi Field. Duda is inexpensive today and will bring you both HR upside and OBP.

		Anthony Rizzo
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.281	0.907	6.25%	0.391
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.286	0.786	0.00%	0.385
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Marquis – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.000	$4,300	$10,650	$5,100	$72,700

Anthony Rizzo

I cannot stand Marquis, and I will continue to choose guys against him at any point possibe. There is no reason that at his advanced age he should be able to improve on a career 5 xFIP, and an xFIP which has been way over 5 in the last two years. He had a solid early start, but Rizzo is money at home and especially against right handers. Rizzo is my bet to go deep today, even in Wrigley with the wind blowing in.

		Jose Altuve
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.414	1.013	2.63%	0.440
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.269	0.706	3.85%	0.314
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Pomeranz – LEFT		0.195	0.563	2.77%	0.259
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$4,100	$9,200	$4,600	$71,300

Jose Altuve

Altuve may not have the power against left handers (he has some), but he certainly hits for average and some power boasting a 1.013 OPS in 2014. His .440 wOBA may be a little bit unsustainable with his high BABIP but he has continued to produce in a small sample this year. There are limited plays at second base every night and with Gordon playing an early game, I like Altuve against Pomeranz as one of the top second base plays of the day even though Pomeranz had a decent year last year.

		Pedro Alvarez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.245	0.770	5.03%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.350	1.231	15.00%	0.522
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Simon – RIGHT		0.248	0.715	3.20%	0.313
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.977	0.000	$3,600	$9,050	$3,800	$51,700

Pedro Alvarez

The Pirates are pretty large favorites today, and while I like McCutchen more in cash, I think Alvarez is one of the better GPP plays. He always has 2 HR upside, and is against Simon who is an effective pitcher but is not a shut down type of guy. Alvarez has a career ISO of .228, so the homers are going to be there. The only question is, can you withstand an 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts? Because that’s the downside.

		Evan Longoria
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.273	0.824	3.25%	0.351
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.190	0.679	0.00%	0.313
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT		0.289	0.752	0.00%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,700	$10,050	$4,600	$66,400

Evan Longoria

Longoria destroys left handed pitching with a .252 ISO and a .916 OPS in his career and will play the strangely consistent (year to year) Mark Buehrle. I am not all-in here, but he is in the Rogers Centre, will be hitting in the middle of the lineup and the Rays, even as a dog, are one of the better over/under candidates.

		Jose Reyes
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.289	0.732	1.81%	0.324
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.400	0.887	0.00%	0.382
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ramirez – RIGHT		0.279	0.790	3.49%	0.353
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,800	$9,800	$5,000	$71,000

Jose Reyes

I think I have recommended Reyes for four straight days. I may quit soon, but I just cannot underestimate the benefit of leading off in this Jays lineup at home in the Rogers Centre. Shortstop a tough position in DFS MLB, but here we have Reyes leading off with HR and SB power for the team with the highest over/under of the night. Erasmo Ramirez has continually gotten worse over his major league career, and while a change of scenery going to Tampa may help, a 5 xFIP last year does not bring confidence and neither does the Rogers Centre.

		Jose Bautista
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.270	0.888	5.72%	0.387
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.222	0.861	5.56%	0.386
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ramirez – RIGHT		0.270	0.848	2.30%	0.371
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$4,800	$12,300	$6,000	$77,100

Jose Bautista

Bautista is extremely expensive, but could be one of the top plays of the day today against Ramirez who has not been good lately. The Jays are the top team to stack, and if you can fit Bautista (going to be easier on FanDuel, but possible with the cheap pitchers), he has one of the best 2 HR upsides on the board.

		Nelson Cruz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.314	0.977	5.84%	0.416
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.292	1.112	16.67%	0.472
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Anderson – LEFT		0.240	0.675	0.83%	0.291
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.907	0.000	$4,300	$10,400	$4,200	$78,700

Nelson Cruz

Cruz has homered in three straight and is locked in at the plate right now. He must have toned down his PED usage to just under the allowable level, because he does not look any smaller and he is mashing just like he used to, especially against lefties. I will continue to use Cruz until his price rises or he cools off, considering this Mariners lineup is great at scoring runs this year.