Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, April 22nd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-04-24 15:42:57

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Disclaimer: Again, I did not include Coors Field players – they obviously make fantastic plays today in a game with a 10 over/under.

		Kevin Plawecki
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki figures to see most of the at-bats at catcher after Travis d’Arnaud’s injury. He is extremely cheap today and faces Stults in Citi Field. Stults has been terrible against right handers in his career, and Plawecki is no slouch at the plate, as he hit for a .385 wOBA last year. While he is not a top tier option, he is in a great situation against a poor pitcher and is extremely cheap. I figure he is going to be one of the core guys for a Kershaw-led lineup and I am looking at two main ways of building lineups today – Kershaw or Coors.

		Chris Davis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.199	0.716	5.65%	0.312
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.261	0.842	4.35%	0.363
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Sanchez – RIGHT		0.146	0.469	2.43%	0.223
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,600	$10,400	$4,700	$67,500

Chris Davis

Davis had one great season where he posted at .473 wOBA with a .411 (!!) ISO and tailed off again last year, regressing under his career averages. While we can expect him to hit better this year (he had a miserable .259 BABIP against right-handed pitchers last year, which is sure to come up, especially for a HR hitter), there seems to be no way he will hit his ridiculous 2013 numbers. That being said, he is facing Aaron Sanchez in Rogers Centre tonight and should be one of the more popular plays on the board with his great power and ability to hit homers. He is not that expensive, under 4K on FD and 5K on DK, and is a great GPP gamble.

		Edwin Encarnacion
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.270	0.909	7.59%	0.392
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.130	0.366	0.00%	0.171
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Jimenez – RIGHT		0.237	0.683	1.35%	0.308
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$4,000	$11,300	$4,800	$70,400

Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin helped out the idea last night that if you have a power hitter who is cold and salary is down, you should not ignore them. With two solo homers and a huge game by the Jays overall, Encarnacion really helped those out who paid the discount price for him. I like him to keep it going today, even against Jimenez who has been solid this year. Jimenez has been poor against right-handed batters and Encarnacion’s HR stats do not favor lefties either. He has another great shot at going deep today, and his price didn’t rise!

		Robinson Cano
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.327	0.891	3.27%	0.382
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.480	1.336	4.00%	0.562
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hernandez – RIGHT		0.246	0.745	2.77%	0.333
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.825	0.000	$4,200	$10,050	$4,400	$73,800

Robinson Cano

Cano again should be one of the top plays of the day at second base against Hernandez. Despite an ISO drop because of Safeco Field, Cano has continued to keep his wOBA right near .400 and his OPS over .900. He is a premier hitting second baseman even in a hitter’s park, and his matchup with Hernandez is solid today. The name changing righty allowed at 5.53 xFIP last year to left handers and has not improved this year. He walks a ton of batters and also has had a 2.25, 2.00, and .96 HR/9 in the last three years, which is terrible.

		Mike Moustakas
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.223	0.653	3.35%	0.289
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.240	0.589	0.00%	0.261
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Pelfrey – RIGHT		0.183	0.648	3.33%	0.294
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$3,000	$6,750	$4,100	$68,800

Mike Moustakas

There are two pitchers this year that I really like to target based on their career performances – Marquis and Pelfrey. Pelfrey has never been a great pitcher, with a career xFIP around 5, and while he has improved his ability to to get left handers out, I still am wary here, as is Vegas. Vegas has the Royals in their pitcher’s park at a 4 over/under and fairly large favorites today. Moustakas is extremely cheap, usually hits at the top of the order and is mashing right handers in a small sample this year, with a .214 ISO and .413 wOBA.

		Kyle Seager
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.283	0.862	5.66%	0.376
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.455	1.101	0.00%	0.484
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hernandez – RIGHT		0.246	0.745	2.77%	0.333
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.825	0.000	$3,800	$8,950	$3,900	$73,900

Kyle Seager

I expressed my distaste for Hernandez above and I think all of the Mariners, especially the lefties, have great matchups today against Hernandez. But when I use Cano, I love to pair him with Seager. Seager hits right behind Cano and mashes right handers to a .221 ISO and a .376 wOBA last year, and he also destroys the ball at Safeco Field. He is one of the safer third basemen on the slate today.

		Jose Reyes
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.289	0.732	1.81%	0.324
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Jimenez – RIGHT		0.241	0.779	3.44%	0.354
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,700	$9,400	$4,500

Jose Reyes

My shortstop plug and play is back after a short injury period, and he came out with a decent game yesterday. He is still cheap on FanDuel and affordable on DraftKings and will again lead off against Jimenez in the Rogers Centre. Reyes brings a bit of power (career .147 ISO against righties) and SB potential (stole one yesterday, facing a right hander), and should be able to cross the plate a few times with the power bats behind him. With Tulo being the obvious play, and Cozart now on steroids (just kidding…maybe), there really are not any other solid shortstop options.

		Alex Gordon
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.271	0.782	2.78%	0.345
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.375	0.912	0.00%	0.398
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Pelfrey – RIGHT		0.183	0.648	3.33%	0.294
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$3,100	$8,650	$4,300	$64,400

Alex Gordon

I expressed my distaste for Pelfrey above, and with Gordon at such a great price on FanDuel, I really like him here today. Gordon has been struggling mightily this year but could be getting off the schneid with a homer yesterday, and we should see a regression towards his career numbers. Gordon hits right handers really well and Hernandez struggles to get lefties out, which should see Gordo put together some solid at-bats today.

		Anthony Gose
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.238	0.641	1.06%	0.295
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Warren – RIGHT		0.170	0.524	0.74%	0.236
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.003	0.000	$3,300	$7,850	$3,600	$48,300

Anthony Gose

Gose’s DraftKings price is great here, but make sure that he is going to be in the lineup. He is splitting time with Rajai Davis in CF platooning against righties and lefties, and with a righty on the mound for the Yankees, he has a solid shot at starting today. We do not have a ton at bats to look at for him, but this year early he has a .222 ISO, 1.111 OPS and is a stolen base threat too, especially against righties with the powerful Tigers behind him.

		Oswaldo Arcia
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.249	0.848	7.05%	0.364
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.214	0.679	7.14%	0.259
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT		0.296	0.828	4.26%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.014	0.000	$3,000	$6,850	$4,200	$47,100

Oswaldo Arcia

Arcia is a bargain on FanDuel today, and with Mauer the only other solid lefty (maybe Santana), the Twins need a big game from him here. Guthrie is terrible against left-handed hitters with a garbage WHIP and a 4.66 career xFIP against them. You can never really go wrong with stacking lefties against Guthrie; the problem is Arcia will most likely be hitting low in the order, and paired with the Twins anemic offense, the upside is limited. That being said, he did have a .278 ISO against RHP last year.