Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, May 6th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-05-08 17:21:20

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Stephen Vogt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.291	0.770	3.48%	0.337
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.450	1.51	15.00%	0.619
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gibson – RIGHT		0.267	0.706	0.82%	0.315
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.116	0.000	$3,500	$9,450	$3,900	$76,000

Stephen Vogt

Vogt was a popular play for the last two nights and I do not see any reason to not use him again. He is absolutely raking against right-handed pitching with a 1.1 OPS and an extremely high wOBA this year. Kyle Gibson’s peripheral numbers are not good and I would expect a good number of runs by the Athletics. Vogt is on some sort of tear right now, and despite a poor game yesterday, there is no reason to cease using him.

		Jason Castro
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.216	0.662	3.46%	0.296
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.286	0.695	0.00%	0.288
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.316	0.853	2.55%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$2,200	$6,850	$3,600	$50,000

Jason Castro

There is no guarantee Castro will end up playing, but if he does I like him at home against Colby Lewis. We have not seen homer-prone Lewis yet this year, but he consistently has been one of the easiest pitchers to hit a homer against. Castro had good career numbers against right-handed pitching with a .333 wOBA and a .172 ISO. I would never use him against a lefty but against a gas can in a hitter’s park, I’ll go for it as a low owned GPP play.

		Prince Fielder
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.244	0.720	1.11%	0.301
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.348	0.988	4.35%	0.429
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Deduno – RIGHT		0.253	0.743	2.02%	0.335
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$3,400	$10,450	$4,400	$72,500

Prince Fielder

Deduno is not a “terrible” pitcher, per-se, but he is not a great one either. He has a 4 career xFIP against left-handed hitters, and while he does not allow a lot of homers, he has a ridiculous runners stranded rate. I can guarantee you that Fielder will be low owned today, and with him having a career .404 wOBA and a career .964 OPS, he will eventually mash right-handed pitching this year. Deduno is now in a more hitter friendly park and Vegas does not hate the Rangers either.

		David Ortiz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.256	0.863	6.92%	0.364
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.391	0.901	0.00%	0.39
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Colome – RIGHT		0.213	0.566	0.00%	0.269
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$3,300	$10,950	$4,500	$75,400

David Ortiz

Alex Colome does not have a long major league history, so inferring anything from those stats is somewhat futile. Ortiz has made a living off obliterating right-handed pitching at home, especially right-handed pitching who hasn’t pitched a lot lot of innings in the majors. He is one of the cheaper first basemen out there and has a great advantage in Fenway tonight. He has a career .420 wOBA against righties (and a 1.009 OPS) and is humming along at just under those numbers this year.

		Luis Valbuena
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.256	0.811	3.80%	0.355
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.815	4.17%	0.362
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lewis – RIGHT		0.316	0.853	2.55%	0.373
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.012	0.000	$3,000	$9,350	$4,000	$64,800

Luis Valbuena

I love Valbuena in this game. The Astros should again be heavily owned tonight, but unlike the last couple of days against left-handed pitching they face off against Lewis, who should give up a few dongs. Valbuena had solid numbers last year, a .208 ISO with a .811 OPS and .355 wOBA but is improving on that this year with every other number better as an Astro. Valbuena is cheap, will be batting high in the order and will face a career 1.31 HR/9 and 4.8 FIP pitcher.

		Alex Rodriguez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.150	0.45	5.00%	0.194
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT		0.289	0.752	0.00%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,300	$8,800	$4,000	$72,500

Alex Rodriguez

I do not really target Mark Buehrle often, but being in the Rogers Centre is a great boon to anyone’s hitting ability. Even though A-Rod has been terrible against lefties this year, he has a .387 career mark and a .247 ISO as well. You can insert the steroids and whatever else comments here, but the fact is that he has hit lefties well in his career and has had a great start to this season. He is relatively inexpensive as well in a less than deep position.

		Josh Donaldson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.275	1.007	9.15%	0.429
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.259	0.912	7.41%	0.399
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Sabathia – LEFT		0.320	0.921	2.64%	0.401
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.042	0.000	$3,900	$11,450	$4,600	$88,400

Josh Donaldson

The two third basemen in this game are two of my favorites of the day. Donaldson has a .409 career wOBA with a .285 career ISO and a .955 career OPS with the last 3 years all over 1.000. He absolutely destroys left-handed pitching, and with Sabathia not the pitcher he was before, I would look for Donaldson to have a monster game today, especially because Sabathia has allowed a 1.35 HR/9 in the last 3 years.

		Jimmy Rollins
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.246	0.732	3.63%	0.326
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.130	0.428	4.35%	0.19
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Peralta – RIGHT		0.300	0.820	3.59%	0.361
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$2,600	$8,200	$3,700	$57,000

Jimmy Rollins

Rollins homered last night after a cold stretch of games and should be on the radar again today. I hate using a lot of shortstops usually, unless you can get Gordon or Hamilton, because most of the SS hit low in the lineup and have a very low upside. Rollins has struggled this year hitting from the left side of the plate, but I am looking for a regression to his .162 ISO and .329 wOBA rather than the poor numbers he has here. Peralta’s numbers are so so, but his 4.59 xFIP against lefties is not great and he has consistently been one of the most homer prone pitchers in a hitter’s park.

		Kevin Kiermaier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.280	0.837	3.50%	0.362
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	0.759	0.00%	0.327
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Masterson – RIGHT		0.312	0.910	2.54%	0.400
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.072	0.000	$2,300	$7,050	$3,300	$48,600

Kevin Kiermaier

Kiermaier is cheap and should be leading off again tonight against Masterson, who notoriously struggles against lefties. The Rays have been putting an interesting lineup together with some decent hitting lefties in DeJesus, Kiermaier, Loney and the switch-hitting Cabrera. While I like Masterson as a pitcher today, I think Kiermaier could do some damage for cheap with his .359 wOBA and .223 ISO.

		Andre Ethier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.253	0.710	1.35%	0.314
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1.151	11.11%	0.486
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Peralta – RIGHT		0.300	0.820	3.59%	0.361
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.002	0.000	$2,800	$8,950	$3,900	$57,400

Andre Ethier

Piggybacking on Rollins as a cheap play in Miller Park, Ethier should be there too, assuming he gets a start in the outfield. If you’re stacking a team just like last night, the Dodgers seem to be one of the best ones to do it with cheap players and guys like Ethier, with career .381 wOBA and .203 ISO against right-handed pitching. They will be popular, but solid for cash games as well.