Daily CFB "Traffic Light" Plays – Week 1
Happy College Football Season Grinders! With it comes my first edition of weekly college football plays. To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a “traffic light” format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
- Green Light – All systems go, feel free to plug this player safely into all lineups.
- Yellow Light – No real feeling for or against the player, feel free to use the player in some lineups but don’t go all out to get him.
- Red Light – Avoid the player at all costs.
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to the week one edition of traffic light plays!
Mississippi State at Oklahoma State
Vegas Odds – Oklahoma State -12 / O/U 60
Oklahoma State’s high powered offense is back for more in 2013 despite the departure of standout RB Joseph Randle. A two-back committee will replace Randle, led by last year’s backup Jeremy Smith. Desmond Roland will also see carries. OSU will also go with a 2-man system at quarterback in the opener, as Coach Mike Gundy has announced that both Clint Chelf and JW Walsh will play in the opener. That is a nightmare for daily fantasy players. Josh Stewart will be the top target for whoever is throwing the ball for the ‘Pokes, and he has the potential to be a top 3 wideout in college football this year. For Mississippi State, this is not the best matchup for them. They are replacing their top three wide receivers from a year ago, and the best bet for offensive production will be from standout RB LaDarius Perkins.
- Green Light – Josh Stewart, Jeremy Smith
- Yellow Light – LaDarius Perkins, Desmond Roland
- Red Light – Clint Chelf, JW Walsh, everyone else on MSU
Alabama at Virginia Tech
Vegas Odds – Alabama -20 / O/U 45 ½
Over the past few years, Alabama has been known as a defensive juggernaut with a play it safe, run-oriented offense. Although that could easily be true again this year, Alabama should have a much improved passing game. A.J. McCarron has a year of experience under his belt, and Amari Cooper is an emerging star at wide receiver. T.J. Yeldon should be a beast this year while having more carries with the departure of Eddie Lacy. Virginia Tech’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and this game could get very, very ugly.
- Green Light – T.J. Yeldon, Amari Cooper
- Yellow Light – A.J. McCarron
- Red Light – The whole Virginia Tech squad
BYU at Virginia
Vegas Odds – BYU -1 / O/U 50
This game should be one of the best games of the opening weekend, although not too many people will probably care about it. Since it should be a close game, it holds quite a bit of daily fantasy relevancy with so many blowouts on tap this weekend. BYU’s offense is led by superstar wideout Cody Hoffman. Taysom Hill will be under center for the opener as BYU breaks in a new quarterback. A decent stable of backs is led by Jamaal Williams and Michael Alisa. On the Virginia side, they will be led by running back Kevin Parks. David Watford has been named the starting quarterback, and Virginia has a stable of average receivers that nobody knows about. They are to be ignored against a solid BYU secondary.
- Green Light – Cody Hoffman
- Yellow Light – Kevin Parks, Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill
- Red Light – David Watford, Virginia WR’s
Georgia vs. Clemson
Vegas Odds – Georgia -1 ½ / O/U 72
Here we have come to our first track meet of the season. The projected total of 72 is surprising given the caliber of these two teams, but it speaks to the skill on offense for both squads. Both have superstar quarterbacks; Georgia has the pure passer in Aaron Murray and Clemson has the do-it-all Tajh Boyd. Both teams also have talent in the backfield. Everyone knows of Gurley and Marshall for Georgia, but Clemson has some underrated backs as well in Roderick McDowell and D.J. Howard. However, Boyd does take a lot of rushing yards away from the RB group. As far as wide receivers go, Clemson has the proven stud in Sammy Watkins, but don’t sleep on potential playmaker Charone Peake. He could be a breakout star in 2013. Georgia’s receiving corps is headlined by another breakout candidate in Malcolm Mitchell.
- Green Light – Tajh Boyd, Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins
- Yellow Light – Charone Peake, Malcolm Mitchell, Keith Marshall
- Red Light – Roderick McDowell, D.J. Howard
LSU vs. TCU
Vegas Odds – LSU -4 ½ / O/U 50
To me, this could be the most intriguing week one game. It pits two average offenses against two pretty good defenses, so scoring could be hard to come by. From a fantasy perspective, this game doesn’t offer too much. LSU is led by game-managing quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Their most experienced WR is Odell Beckham, and he is an intriguing option if LSU were to throw the ball a little more. LSU also relies on 3 or 4 running backs to split time. TCU, on the other hand, does not even know who is starting at QB yet. They do get their best RB back from injury in Waymon James, but a date with LSU does not set up well for success here.
- Green Light – Nobody
- Yellow Light – Odell Beckham
- Red Light – Everybody else. There are better options.
Boise State at Washington
Vegas Odds – Washington -3 ½ / O/U 52 ½
There’s nothing better than west coast college football. It caps off a nice 12 hour day of doing nothing. This game should be a dandy to close out the evening. Boise State returns QB Joe Southwick, but I think the breakout star for the Broncos this year is RB Jay Ajayi. Unfortunately, they seem committed to using a three-back approach to start the season, which will limit his carries. The receiving corps is led by Junior Matt Miller. Washington has several players who are fantasy-relevant. Quarterback Keith Price enters his third year as starter and has the capability to put up a big game at any time. Receiver Kasen Williams is his go-to target, along with tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, who is doubtful for the opener with a hand injury. The real stud here is RB Bishop Sankey, who carried the ball 30 times for over 200 yards in last year’s bowl game against……. Boise State.
- Green Light – Bishop Sankey, Kasen Williams, Matt Miller, Keith Price
- Yellow Light – Jay Ajayi, Joe Southwick
- Red Light – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Northwestern at California
Vegas Odds – Northwestern -5 ½ / O/U 57
Northwestern is a team to watch this year, as I believe they are capable of cracking the top 10 in the country. The Vegas odds for this game reflect a similar level of respect, with this being a road game for the Wildcats. They are led by sensational talent Venric Mark at RB, along with the 1-2 punch of Trevor Siemian and Kain Colter at QB. Siemian is the passer and Colter is the runner, but they split reps. Colter also will line up some at wide receiver, which is the weakness of Northwestern’s offense. This will be a transition year for Cal as they adjust to life without Keenan Allen and a host of other offensive weapons who departed. True freshman Jared Goff will start at QB, and Cal will lean on some talented running backs to take the pressure off him, namely playmaker Brandon Bigelow.
- Green Light – Venric Mark
- Yellow Light – Kain Colter, Brandon Bigelow
- Red Light – Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff, other skill players not mentioned
Good luck in your week one games!