Daily CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 2
Welcome to the second edition of my weekly college football plays. Hopefully you are reading this because you were able to profit from the picks from week one! The picks did fairly well for the first week, outside of the mysterious “injuries” to Cody Hoffman (who did not play at all) and Venric Mark (who played sparingly). That tends to happen in college football, especially in the first week or two. Coaches are coy with their injury news and the surprise scratch will pop up from time to time, especially when teams are facing lesser competition.
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a “traffic light” format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
- Green Light – All systems go, feel free to plug this player safely into all lineups.
- Yellow Light – No real feeling for or against the player, feel free to use the player in some lineups but don’t go all out to get him.
- Red Light – Avoid the player at all costs.
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to the week two edition of traffic light plays!
Florida at Miami
Vegas Odds – Florida -3 / O/U 49
I expected Florida’s offense to click out of the gate, but they really struggled against a bad Toledo defense. If not for the great play of Mack Brown, they may have had trouble winning the game. Unfortuantely, preseason starter Matt Jones is expected to return for this game, which makes the Florida RB situation very dicey. We have no idea of knowing how the carries will be split. Jeff Driskel couldn’t even play well against Toledo, so I would hesitate to use him or any of the Florida receivers here. As for Miami, Duke Johnson and Stephen Morris looked fantastic in the opener. Johnson is a darkhorse Heisman candidate this year, and Morris looks more polished. However, they rotate so many receivers that it’s hard to know who to trust on that end. Watford makes for a decent TE option if he’s cheap. The low O/U has me a bit cautious on this game as a whole, however.
- Green Light – Duke Johnson
- Yellow Light – Stephen Morris, Clive Watford, Matt Jones, Mack Brown
- Red Light – Jeff Driskel, Miami WR’s
Oregon at Virginia
Vegas Odds – Oregon -22 / O/U 60
The Oregon offense clicked right out of the gate against an overmatched Nichols State squad. It appears as though they won’t miss a beat without Kenjon Barner. Marcus Mariota and DeAnthony Thomas are every week options, but their WR’s are hard to trust as they seem to be boom or bust. Oregon relies on its run game a lot. As for Virginia, they are likely going to be blown out in this game. However, I do like their starting RB Kevin Parks. If you can get him for cheap, I wouldn’t be against using him. He is versatile and has the best chance of anyone on the team to score a touchdown.
- Green Light – Marcus Mariota, DeAnthony Thomas
- Yellow Light – Kevin Parks, Oregon WR’s
- Red Light – Everyone else on Virginia
Texas at BYU
Vegas Odds – Texas -7 / O/U 55
Well, maybe David Ash is a competent college quarterback. The Texas offense clicked into gear during the 2nd half of their cupcake opener, and freshman Daje Johnson looks like a budding superstar, do-it-all wideout. As for the run game, you can never guess which guy out of the 3-headed monster will have the best day. Meanwhile, BYU flopped against Virginia without star wideout and playmaker Cody Hoffman, who is questionable for this game. The good news is that BYU has a workhorse back in Jamaal Williams. He carried the ball 33 times in the opener. This is valuable in CFB because so many teams use multiple backs. I love him this week, especially if he’s at a discounted price due to the opponent. QB Taysom Hill struggles throwing the ball and Williams should get plenty of chances again.
- Green Light – David Ash, Daje Johnson, Jamaal Williams
- Yellow Light – Cody Hoffman (check injury status)
- Red Light – Taysom Hill, Texas RB’s
Notre Dame at Michigan
Vegas Odds – Michigan -3 1/2 / O/U 52
I never understand why this game gets so much hype. Both teams always seem to be overrated early in the season and the media makes a huge deal about this game; then both teams flop to a 7-5 season. Well, here we are again with both teams ranked in the top 20. I expect this to be a defensive game, and although I recommended Tommy Rees last week against Temple, I wouldn’t expect similar results this week. Expect more runs out of Notre Dame, where they will lean on George Atkinson and Amir Carlisle. Carlisle is a speed back that I like to compare to C.J. Spiller, and I think he has the best chance of breaking one against the Michigan defense. As for Michigan, it’s hard to tell what to make of Devin Gardner. I think he’s overrated and he didn’t do much in the opener against Central Michigan to convince me otherwise. Fitzgerald Touissaint and Jeremy Gallon are the best bets to meet value this week as Gardner’s price is way too high all across the board for a game that should be relatively low scoring.
- Green Light – Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jeremy Gallon, Amir Carlisle
- Yellow Light –Devin Gardner
- Red Light – Tommy Rees, George Atkinson
Washington State at USC
Vegas Odds – USC -15 / O/U 53
You know Lane Kiffin was seething after that performance in the opener. His quarterbacks were terrible and USC had to resort to the run game. What does that mean for week two? I think USC will come out looking to throw and throw some more to work the kinks out before the tough part of the schedule arrives. I love Marqise Lee and Nelson Algohor and even Xavier Grimble this week, though I would avoid the quarterbacks since you never know which one will see more snaps. Also, it’s hard to know which running back will see more carries since Madden and Davis split evenly in the opener and Silas Redd might return. Avoid Washington State entirely. They actually scored some points in the opener against Auburn but all that did is serve to inflate the player prices too much to even consider using them against USC.
- Green Light – Marqise Lee, Nelson Algohor
- Yellow Light – Xavier Grimble
- Red Light – USC QB’s/RB’s and the whole Washington State squad
South Carolina at Georgia
Vegas Odds – Georgia -3 ½ / O/U 55 ½
This should be a dandy of a week two game. Unfortunately I was a little disappointed when I tried to break it down fantasy-wise. South Carolina could switch from Connor Shaw to Dylan Thompson at any time at QB. Their two RB’s split carries in the opener. Their WR’s and TE’s aren’t overly talented and the Gamecocks don’t throw enough to warrant usage. As for Georgia, Aaron Murray is always an option but South Carolina may have the best defense in the country. Todd Gurley was banged up in the opener and may likely split carries evenly in this game with Keith Marshall. A WR will have to step up with Malcolm Mitchell out for the year, but it’s hard to tell who that will be at this point. Someone will have a great game here, but it’s virtually impossible to tell who it’s going to be and I would avoid most guys if you can.
- Green Light – Nobody
- Yellow Light – Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, Connor Shaw
- Red Light – Everyone else
Other Green Light plays from games I did not break down include:
1) Braxton Miller, Ohio State (QB)
2) Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (QB)
3) Dak Prescott, Mississippi State (QB) – SLEEPER SPECIAL – Bare minimum price on some sites and should start with Russell injured. They are favored by 40+ against Alcorn State.
4) Jordan Hall, Ohio State (RB)
5) Lache Seastrunk, Baylor (RB)
6) Prescott Line, SMU (RB) – SLEEPER SPECIAL – Brother of Zach Line, will start for SMU Saturday
7) Mike Evans, Texas A&M (WR)
8) Tevin Reese, Baylor (WR)
9) Stefon Diggs, Maryland (WR)
10) Jesse James, Penn State (TE)