Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 1
Welcome back to CFB “Traffic Lights” plays! I get the privilege of trying to follow in the large footsteps of @STLCardinals84. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, this week I am focusing on the major matchups of the week but will also hit on some of the other green light plays from other games around the country. Once conference play gets going and we get a greater number of games that will be competitive, I’ll hit on more games and will change the format up a bit. Now let’s get to the week one edition of traffic light plays!
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Vegas Odds: South Carolina -10, O/U 57
Full disclosure: my wife goes to A&M veterinary school and we have season tickets, but I’ll do my best to keep this one unbiased! Steve Spurrier is not the same “ fun n gun” coach he was when he was at Florida. He’s built this SC program on defense and a strong running game that sets up play action passing. The A&M defense was terrible last year ranking 95th in the country in passing yards allowed per game (253 ypg) and 110th in rushing (222 ypg and 5.38 ypc). Dylan Thompson takes over as SC’s starting QB. He had big games vs East Carolina and Clemson in 2012, but was pedestrian in 2013. I think he makes a solid cash game play but don’t love him for GPPs as he could be just a game manager as the focal point of the SC offense is pre-season all SEC RB Mike Davis. Davis has missed some practice with a rib injury but recently tweeted that he would play in the game. I expect him to play as this is an important conference game but it’s definitely a situation to monitor. He’s my clear No. 1 RB for the Thursday night game set if he plays and should be in for a monster night. Damiere Byrd is the leading returning WR for SC and will be joined in the starting unit by Shaq Roland, Pharoah Cooper, and Nick Jones.
The SC defense should be solid eventually but they graduated their 2 best DL and 2 best defensive backs so there could be some growing pains early. There isn’t a proven pass rusher and the secondary lacks experience so I like the A&M passing game as a sneak GPP play as most people will see the South Carolina defense along with no Manziel/Evans and fade the A&M offense. Kenny Hill gets the distinction of taking over for Johnny Football as QB of Kevin Sumlin’s high tempo offense. Hill has a good pedigree coming out of Texas high school powerhouse Southlake Carroll and was a 4 star recruit- he can run but it’s not his strength. Despite the loss of Manziel, the A&M offense isn’t going to change – they are still going to play fast and throw it a ton. It remains to be seen if Hill can handle a tough road environment in his 1st start so he is a GPP play only. Outside of senior Malcome Kennedy, the starting WRs for A&M lack experience but are a very talented group. True Freshman Speedy Noil was a top 20 recruit in the country and redshirt freshman Ricky Seals Jones was a top 30 recruit. Kennedy is the leading returning WR. The A&M rushing game is expected to be more productive this year but will be a running back by committee between Trey Williams, Tra Carson and Brandon Williams with Tra Carson being the goaline back.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Mike Davis |
| | Dylan Thompson, Kenny Hill, Shaq Roland/Damiere Byrd, Kennedy/Noil/Seals-Jones |
| | A&M Running Backs |
West Virginia at Alabama (in Atlanta)
As I write this article, Alabama still hasn’t named a starting QB out of Blake Sims and Jacob Coker. Typically the Alabama QB has only been a game manager in Saban’s offense and it’s the running backs you want to target anyway. West Virginia struggled against the run in 2013 ranking 90th in the country and allowing 191 ypg and 4.43 ypc in the pass happy Big 12. Enter Alabama’s premier running attack led by pre-season all SEC RB TJ Yeldon and backup Derrick Henry. Yeldon returns after rushing for 1200 yards and 14 tds last year. The only worry with Yeldon is fumbles as he has struggled with them throughout his career and was benched for Henry in the bowl loss vs OU. Derrick Henry took full advantage rushing for 100 yards on only 8 carries and has built on the bowl game with a strong offseason. Henry carries the most risk as the number of his carries are still uncertain but that risk is somewhat built into his price as he is pretty cheap on some sites. At WR, Amari Cooper is a premier deep threat off of play action. I expect him to get behind the WV secondary at least once but he is probably best used on a non-PPR as he won’t rack up the receptions in Alabama’s run based offense.
The WV offense was uncharacteristically bad for a Dana Holgorsen offense. Clint Trickett returns in his 2nd year in the system and Mario Alford came on strong down the stretch in 2013. Along with Kevin White, they both could be potential sleepers/value plays LATER on in the season. I never target players against Alabama and won’t be this week. WV is an ease fade.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | TJ Yeldon |
| | OJ Howard, Amari Cooper, Derrick Henry |
| | Entire West Virginia offense, Alabama QB |
Cal at Northwestern
Vegas Odds: Northwestern -10, O/U 62
Cal was one of the top defenses to target last year as they were hit hard by injuries and finished 86th vs run allowing 4.9 ypc and DEAD LAST in pass defense allowing 341 ypg. With the return of several key starters on defense that missed all of last year, the Cal defense is expected to be improved. However, Vegas isn’t fully buying that as they still have NW pegged for around 35 points. These two teams played last year with NW winning in a shootout 44-30. The past 2 years NW employed a 2 QB system but Kain Colter graduated leaving Trevor Siemian with the opportunity to run the show. In the 2 games that Colter missed with injury last year, Siemian averaged 45 pass attempts per game and lit up a bad Illinois secondary for 414 yards and 5 TD’s. I like him as a GPP play vs a suspect Cal D. Venrik Mark transferred leaving the starting RB job to Treyvon Green. Green was only average filling in for Mark last year, but did have 129 yards and 2 tds in last year’s matchup. Leading WR Christian Jones is out for the year so expect Tony Jones to step in as the top target and TE Dan Vitale is a nice option at TE.
As a true freshman in 2013, Jared Goff was great during the first half but really faded down the stretch. Cal throws the ball a TON and with an extra year of experience Goff could put up some big numbers. Northwestern was bad vs the pass in 2013 finishing 99th in the country allowing 256 ypg but does return the majority of their secondary. Goff did have success in this matchup last year as he was 39/64 for 450 yards and 2 td’s but threw 3 picks. Harper had 11 receptions for 148 yards and 2 td’s while Treggs had 13 receptions for 145 yards. Harper and Treggs are nice mid-level options in PPR leagues as they see a ton of targets. Kenny Lawler is the other WR to know as he had a strong finish to 2013. Cal is a pass first team and wasn’t effective running the ball last year so I won’t be targeting any of their RB’s.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Dan Vitale |
| | Trevor Siemian, Tony Jones, Treyvon Green, Jared Goff, Treggs/Harper/Lawler |
| | Cal running backs |
Clemson at Georgia
Vegas Odds: Georgia -8, O/U 58
The Clemson Offense has been one of the top offenses to target in recent years. This year though I’ll be taking a wait and see approach. Senior Cole Stoudt will get the nod at QB but highly regarded freshman Deshaun Watson could see some snaps as well. Zac Brooks injured his foot and is out for the year and the Clemson running back situation looks to be a running back by committee. Charone Peake, Adam Humphries, and Mike Williams are the top wideouts but there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut #1 WR at the moment. It’s tough to fade a Chad Morris offense but with the uncertainty regarding touches and a tough road matchup in Athens that’s what I’ll be doing.
Clemson has one of the top DL in the country, led by Vic Beasley, who is coming off a 13 sack season. However, Georgia is led by arguably the most talented back in the country, Todd Gurley. Before leaving with an injury, Gurley had 12 carries for 154 yards and 2td in this matchup last year. The issue with Gurley has always been injuries- if he’s healthy he’s proven to be matchup proof. Hutson Mason takes over at QB for Aaron Murray. He started the final 2 games of 2013 and averaged 310 yards passing a game but only threw for 3 td’s to go with 3 int’s. Chris Conley and Michael Bennett should be his top 2 WR targets as Malcolm Mitchell could miss the game with a knee injury. Mason, Conley and Bennett are all fairly cheap but I think there are better matchups out there with more upside as this Clemson defense looks to be a solid unit.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Todd Gurley |
| | None |
| | Clemson offense, rest of Georgia offense |
Florida State at Oklahoma State (in Arlington)
Vegas Odds: Florida State – 17.5, O/U 63
At times last year Jameis Winston was a victim of his own team’s strong defense and running game as his numbers took a hit in several blowouts. The good news is that OSU should be good enough to keep it somewhat close for 3 quarters but probably aren’t good enough to keep FSU below 40. OSU only returns 4 starters on defense and graduated almost their entire secondary – fire up Jameis. Karlos Williams steps in as the starting RB role after scoring 11 td’s last year and averaging 8 ypc, although a lot of that came in blowouts. Jimbo Fisher has typically employed a running back by committee so it remains to be seen how many carries Williams will get. Even if he only gets 15 carries, Williams is way too cheap around the industry and is one of the top value plays. With Kelvin Benjamin off to the NFL, Rashad Greene is a premier #1 WR as he should get even more targets coming off 1100 yard receiving year in 2013. Nick O’Leary is a solid target at TE.
Florida State should have one of the top defenses in the country again so I’ll be avoiding the entire Oklahoma State offense. Keep an eye on how OSU utilizes Big 12 pre-season newcomer of the year Tyreek Hill and how many touches he gets as a RB vs WR, as well as if Walsh looks to have a #1 WR he likes to target as OSU has some good matchups in the coming weeks.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Jameis Winston, Rashad Greene, Nick O’Leary, Karlos Williams |
| | None |
| | Oklahoma State offense |
Wisconsin at LSU (in Houston)
Vegas Odds: LSU – 4, O/U 50
As of this article LSU had yet to name a starting QB out of Anthony Jennings or Brandon Harris. Both are very inexperienced and the LSU offense will probably be run heavy so I won’t be using either. Wisconsin graduated their entire front 7 so I expect LSU to run the ball a ton with their talented backs. At RB, Terence Magee is still listed at #1 on the depth chart ahead of top recruit Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard could see some time as well. It’s a nice matchup for the LSU RB’s but it’s hard to determine who will get the production so it’s a GPP only play for me. LSU is very inexperienced at WR and with the QB uncertainty I’ll be taking a wait and see approach there.
Wisconsin is also a very run heavy team so I won’t be targeting their QB, Tanner McEvoy, or any of their WR’s as they lost Abbrederis to graduation and it’s uncertain as to who will step up- not to mention the LSU secondary is loaded with talent. At RB, Melvin Gordon is in the conversation with Gurley as the best RB in the country. This is a tough matchup for me as I typically avoid the LSU D, but LSU lost both DT’s to the draft and the 2 starting DT’s have accounted for only 20 career tackles. Gordon averaged 7.8 ypc last year while splitting time with James White, who graduated. Wisconsin has already said that this will still be a two back system as Gordon’s backup, Corey Clement is very talented and averaged 8.3 ypc last year. I’m expecting something like 70/30 split in favor of Gordon so it’ll be interesting to how the carries are divided. I like Melvin Gordon this week but don’t love him due to the matchup. Depending on the number of carries Clement gets he’s one to watch for later in the season.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | None |
| | Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Terence Magee |
| | LSU QB, McEvoy, LSU and Wisc. Wr’s, Corey Clement |
Other Green Lights
NOTE: A lot of the sites have included games vs FCS teams which can be quite tricky as it’s obviously a good matchup but it’s almost TOO good of a matchup as things can get out of hand really quick. In the majority of these games, you’re probably only looking at 2 to 2.5 quarters of playing time for the starters so there is some risk involved, especially if there are defensive and/or special teams td’s. I’ve included some of the green light plays from these games but haven’t hit on all of them as there are a ton of these matchups. Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you..
QB’s – Davis Webb (Texas Tech), Shane Carden (ECU), Rakeem Cato (Marshall), JT Barrett (OSU- value play), John O’Korn (UH- Friday), Taysom Hill (BYU – Friday), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Brett Hundley (UCLA), Connor Halliday (Washington State- Thursday), Anthony Boone (Duke – value play)
RB’s- Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska), Josh Ferguson (Illinois), Javorius Allen (USC), Ezekiel Elliot (OSU- double check health status), Malcolm Brown (Texas), Myles Willis (Boston College)
WR’s – Justin Hardy (ECU), Tommy Shuler (Marshall), Jamison Crowder (Duke), Deontay Greenberry (UH- Friday), Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss – thurs), Shane Wynn (Indiana), Tyler Lockett (Kansas State), Tyler Boyd (Pitt)
TE’s: Funchess(Michigan – top TE where he is still TE eligible), EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Max Williams (Minnesota), Randall Telfer (USC- value play), Jake McGee (Florida- value play), Dan Vitale (Northwestern), Blake Bell (OU), O’Leary (FSU), Hamlett (Oregon St.), Tyler Kroft Rutgers- thursday). As pointed in stlcardinals84’ article, TE is not a spend position in daily CFB. If you don’t have salary for higher priced TE, just punt the position and don’t even sweat it.