Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 10
As we hit November, NBA kicks off and the NFL and NHL are in full swing. This is when a lot of users start to fade away from college football, and the games become littered with more of the “hardcore” college players. I’ll be interested to see how this month goes given that college football has exponentially grown in popularity this season. DraftStreet’s Big Score was a rousing success last week, and DraftKings $109 GPP is now double the size of what it was in the opening weeks with 120 players. To me, it’s still a great time to play college football, and this Saturday will be no different. With that being said, let’s see how the traffic light plays will perform this week after a mixed bag of picks in week nine.
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a ìtraffic lightî format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to this week’s edition of traffic light plays!
Northwestern at Nebraska
Vegas Odds: Nebraska -6 / O/U 58 1/2
I can’t remember a team that’s had a more precipitous mid-season fall than Northwestern has this season. Just a month ago, they were playing Ohio State in primetime on ABC and both teams were undefeated. That seems like ages ago because Northwestern has now lost four straight, including losses to Minnesota and Iowa. It sounds like Venric Mark might try and get a redshirt season and come back healthy next year. Obviously, don’t roster him. Their current committee approach in the backfield isn’t fantasy friendly, either. To pile on, hybrid QB/WR Kain Colter is banged up, and Trevor Siemian hasn’t been passing well. There’s really nobody you can count on for fantasy production given the current state of the Northwestern offense. If you use anyone, TE Dan Vitale has been playing well recently. For Nebraska, Taylor Martinez came back but looked extremely rusty last week. As of Friday morning, he has officially been ruled out this week. Tommy Armstrong will start and makes an iffy play in Saturday leagues. Ameer Abdullah is finally becoming the bell cow RB as Imani Cross only got two carries last week. He’s probably the safest fantasy option in this game. I’m indifferent on the Nebraska receivers — the matchup is average and their upside is limited by Nebraska’s run-oriented approach. If you want to take a flyer on Kenny Bell or Quincy Enunwa, just use whichever guy is cheaper.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Ameer Abdullah |
| | Dan Vitale, Tommy Armstrong, Kenny Bell, Quincy Enunwa |
| | Kain Colter, Trevor Siemian, Venric Mark (injured), Taylor Martinez (injured), Imani Cross |
Arizona at California
Vegas Odds: Arizona -16 / O/U 67 1/2
Arizona gets the pleasure of destroying the worst defense in college football this week. If Ka’Deem Carey is anywhere close to affordable on your site of choice, you absolutely must roster him. He scored four times against Colorado last week and the Cal defense is worse. He’s virtually a lock for 150-200 yards and multiple touchdowns. B.J. Denker is also in play, as he has been running and throwing with significantly more confidence over the past few games. I would not target any Arizona wideouts as they do not throw the ball enough to make any of the receivers consistent week-to-week options. Cal will be the same offensive team they have been all year, chucking the ball all over the place. Although Jared Goff did look decent last week, I still worry about the quick hook they seem to have when he struggles. If I’m playing any Golden Bear, it’s one of their top two wideouts, Chris Harper or Bryce Treggs. #3 WR Richard Rodgers is only in play if your site lists him as a tight end. If he is listed there, he carries significantly more value.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | B.J. Denker, KaDeem Carey, Chris Harper, Bryce Treggs |
| | Jared Goff, Richard Rodgers |
| | Arizona WR’s and California RB’s |
Georgia vs. Florida (in Jacksonville)
Vegas Odds: Georgia -3 / O/U 47 1/2
Georgia limps into this rivalry game in more ways than one. They are physically and mentally banged up and have lost their last two games. Luckily for them, it appears that stud RB Todd Gurley is close to 100% and will be back for this game. He’s one of the best backs in college football when healthy, so take advantage of his discount this week on a lot of sites. The Georgia receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, and it’s hurting Aaron Murray in a big way. Their whole passing attack gets the yellow light. Florida’s offense has gone back to its sputtering ways. Tyler Murphy has alternated good and bad games and might make a decent GPP flier against an exploitable Georgia defense. Outside of that, I believe Florida’s best offensive player is freshman RB Kelvin Taylor. He’s light years ahead of Mack Brown and I wouldn’t hesitate to use him on any sites where he is cheap.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Todd Gurley |
| | Aaron Murray, Chris Conley, Arthur Lynch, Tyler Murphy, Kelvin Taylor |
| | Mack Brown, Florida WR’s, J.J. Green, Brendan Douglas |
Tennessee at Missouri
Vegas Odds: Missouri -10 1/2 / O/U 55
Tennessee has been terrible all year, and now they’ve lost their quarterback who was just starting to play a little better. Justin Worley is out indefinitely, so Josh Dobbs will take the reins this weekend. I don’t know a whole lot about him, but he might be a total GPP flier if you can find him somewhere for minimum salary. The biggest beneficiary of this is RB Rajion Neal, who should get as many carries as he can handle. He has rocketed ahead of Marlin Lane as the Vols lead horse. I wouldn’t bother with any Tennessee receivers. They weren’t very good even with Worley at the helm. It will be interesting to see how Missouri responds from the 4th quarter and overtime collapse against South Carolina last week. This should be a nice “get well” game for them, and QB Maty Mauk should finally have a big statistical day against what is easily the worst defense he has seen so far. The first two tough matchups have kept his price down everywhere. James Franklin has surprisingly been upgraded to “questionable” for this game, although the news as of Friday morning says Mauk will still start. This increases his risk, but I still love the matchup assuming he gets a full game of reps. Keep your eyes peeled for additional news. Running back Henry Josey is an OK option, but I wouldn’t touch Marcus Murphy. Murphy had just four carries combined the previous two games before last week’s explosion, so I’m going to continue to stay away from him. The Missouri receivers are explosive but unpredictable. Pick them at your own risk and good luck grabbing the right one.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Rajion Neal, Maty Mauk |
| | Josh Dobbs, Henry Josey, Marcus Lucas, Dorial Green-Beckham, L’Damian Washington |
| | Justin Worley (injured), Marlin Lane, Tennessee WR’s, Marcus Murphy |
Nevada at Fresno State
Vegas Odds: Fresno State -20 1/2 / O/U 73 1/2
Hello, shootout of the week! Nevada’s all around defense is pathetic. Fresno State’s defense is middle of the road, and their pass defense is below average. Both offenses are dynamic. Fireworks will abound in this one. There’s not too much that you can’t target here. Nevada dual threat QB Cody Fajardo is a solid play, as are top wideouts Richy Turner and Brandon Wimberly. They don’t hand the ball off a ton, but RB Kendall Brock might be a good play if he’s underpriced. Virtually all of the Fresno weapons are playable. QB Derek Carr has the potential to throw six touchdowns in a game if they let him, and superstar wideout Davante Adams seems to score every week. Josh Harper and Isaiah Burse are also decent options this week given the matchup. I like Harper a bit better because he is the better pure pass catcher. Fresno doesn’t run the ball enough to make their running backs studs, but Marteze Waller is a plausible option given the fact that they should win this game easily and be able to run more after halftime.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Cody Fajardo, Brandon Wimberly, Richy Turner, Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Josh Harper |
| | Kendall Brock, Marteze Waller, Isaiah Burse |
| | Josh Quezada |
Miami at Florida State
Vegas Odds: Florida State -21 1/2 / O/U 61 1/2
If you look at the odds for this game, you would have no idea that it pits two top ten teams against each other. That’s what happens when Miami struggles with Wake Forest while Florida State blows the doors off of N.C. State and Clemson. The Seminoles probably could have put up 100 points last week had they not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the second half. All of their offensive weapons are firing on all cylinders, and feel free to roster virtually any of them this week. Freshman QB Jameis Winston is the real deal and is proving to be one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Stud WR Rashad Greene is emerging this year, but he’ll cost you a bit more. Running back Devonta Freeman and #2 wideout Kenny Shaw are a little bit cheaper and therefore good value-type plays on most sites. Some might be concerned that Karlos Williams got some carries over Freeman last week, but they were likely just preserving Freeman for this game. I’ll even give #3 WR Kelvin Benjamin a yellow light in this game. Nick O’Leary at tight end is a boom-or-bust option that can be used if you need to fill out your roster. As for Miami, I’m a little bit higher on them this week than most people are. I think they will put up some points to keep the game competitive, but the FSU defense is tough to target players against. Stephen Morris is in play on 2 QB sites where he’s gotten cheap, but otherwise I would pass. Duke Johnson is the only other Hurricane worth considering given his home run potential. If I had to make a call, I’d say the Seminoles win this game by two touchdowns.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Jameis Winston, Devonta Freeman, Rashad Greene, Kenny Shaw |
| | Stephen Morris, Duke Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin, Nick O’Leary |
| | Dallas Crawford, Miami WR’s |
Other Green Light plays from games I did not break down include:
1) Jordan Lynch – Northern Illinois QB
2) Johnny Manziel – Texas A&M QB
3) Rakeem Cato – Marshall QB
4) Melvin Gordon – Wisconsin RB
5) Bill Belton (Sleeper) – Penn State RB
6) David Cobb (Sleeper) – Minnesota RB
7) Sammy Watkins – Clemson WR
8) Eric Ward – Texas Tech WR
9) Mike Evans – Texas A&M WR
10) Devin Funchess – Michigan TE
Good luck in your games!!