Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 11
The mind-numbing, hardcore time for college football is in full swing now. Injuries have hit some teams hard, guys are getting benched for struggling at a rapid rate, tons of sports are in full swing, and it’s just so hard to keep up with college football. Believe it or not, if you do your research, this actually gives you more of an edge over the competition who may now be doing less. That’s what this column is here for!! I’m going to guide you through the CFB landscape for week 11. Bowl season is drawing near, and that should mean more fun times for college football.
I’m going to do the article a little differently this week. Please leave comments at the bottom and let me know whether you prefer this format or the old format. User feedback will determine how I format it going forward.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
12 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-2, 60)
Florida State at Wake Forest (+35, 54 1/2)
Missouri at Kentucky (+13 1/2, 56 1/2)
Iowa at Purdue (+15, 45)
Penn State at Minnesota (-1 1/2, 48)
Vanderbilt at Florida (-10, 42 1/2)
Auburn at Tennessee (+7 1/2, 55)
A couple of these games are just hands-off for fantasy purposes. Those games are Iowa at Purdue and Vanderbilt at Florida. All four teams struggle mightily on offense and the upside is just not there for those teams. I think Jordan Matthews is a perfect fade this week against a solid Gators D. For the most part, I am not touching the Missouri/Kentucky game either. It sounds like James Franklin might return this week, and he could end up splitting time with Mauk in a potential blowout. Their running backs are unpredictable, so I wouldn’t go there either.
The other games have some nice fantasy implications. The usual suspects for Texas Tech are good options this week, as Davis Webb, Eric Ward, and Jace Amaro should be in line for good games against K-State. Don’t sleep on Tyler Lockett for the Wildcats, as he has had several fantastic games this year. Comeback mode late in the game for K-State would actually mean good prospects for Lockett since they like to run the ball so much. Florida State will blow the doors off Wake Forest and I expect Winston and Greene to be more involved this week after the run game dominated last week. The blowout will give the running backs some nice breathing time in the 2nd half after that grinding performance last week, so I am avoiding them.
Penn State and Minnesota should have a nice run-oriented contest with emerging studs Bill Belton and David Cobb going head to head. I’ll give the slight edge to Belton there, going against a worse defense. Allen Robinson is an every-week potential start at this point. He gets a TON of targets. Auburn and Tennessee will also feature two run-oriented offenses built around feature backs Tre Mason and Rajion Neal. I like both of them this week. Tennessee will need Neal to perform well to have any chance in this game.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Tyler Lockett, Davis Webb, Eric Ward, Jace Amaro, Jameis Winston, Rashad Greene, Bill Belton, Allen Robinson, Tre Mason, Rajion Neal |
| | Daniel Sams, Kenny Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Nick O’Leary, Jake Rudock, Mark Weisman, David Cobb, Nick Marshall |
| | Maty Mauk, James Franklin, Devonta Freeman, James Wilder, Christian Hackenberg, Jordan Matthews, Tyler Murphy |
12:30 TO 4:00 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Virginia at North Carolina (-13 1/2, 52)
USC at California (+16, 55 1/2)
Nebraska at Michigan (-6, 57 1/2)
Illinois at Indiana (-9, 78)
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-19, 66 1/2)
BYU at Wisconsin (-8, 55)
Kansas at Oklahoma State (-31, 53 1/2)
All of these games have playable options, so let’s start from the top. The name to know in the first game is UNC QB Marquise Williams. With Bryn Renner out for the season, this will be Williams’ team to run. He gets a good matchup, is a dual threat QB, and he has talent. He’s pretty cheap across the industry and makes for a great play. In the weekly target-Cal-defense game, fire up your USC Trojans. Marqise Lee has a great chance to bust out this week, along with running backs Silas Redd and Javorious Allen. Even Cody Kessler is in play on multi-QB sites. Devin Gardner is the best option from the Nebraska/Michigan game. I could see rostering Jeremy Gallon or Devin Funchess, but I wouldn’t pay top dollar for Gallon. Nebraska is pretty well hands off in a tough road game with a banged up offense.
Look at that total in the Illinois/Indiana game! The problem is that both teams are hard to figure out because they rotate backs and Indiana rotates QB’s. The safest options are Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase and both Indiana running backs, Tevin Coleman and Stephen Houston. Illinois is awful defending the run. The MSU/Texas A&M game will be fun as well. Beware of the QB situation at Mississippi State. Dak Prescott’s mother passed away and it is not known whether he will play this week. Jameon Lewis is the only other playable option from that team. Feel free to play any of the usual Texas A&M weapons.
Nothing sticks out to me in the BYU/Wisconsin game outside of Melvin Gordon on sites where he is cheap. James White is priced above Gordon on almost every site and I won’t pay top dollar for him. Gordon is more explosive and makes the better play. Feel free to take any of the Oklahoma State skill players. Clint Chelf, Desmond Roland, and Josh Stewart all have fabulous matchups this week, and they are super cheap on some sites.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Marquise Williams, Silas Redd, Javorious Allen, Marqise Lee, Devin Gardner, Devin Funchess, Nathan Scheelhaase, Tevin Coleman, Stephen Houston, Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans, Melvin Gordon, Clint Chelf, Desmond Roland, Josh Stewart |
| | Eric Ebron, Cody Kessler, Nelson Agholor, Jameon Lewis, James White, Jeremy Gallon |
| | Dak Prescott, Taysom Hill, Cody Hoffman, Jared Abbrederis, James Sims |
7 PM AND LATER STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Virginia Tech at Miami (-6 1/2, 44)
Texas at West Virginia (+6, 56)
Colorado at Washington (-28 1/2, 60 1/2)
LSU at Alabama (-12 1/2, 55)
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (+4 1/2, 51)
UCLA at Arizona (-1 1/2, 56 1/2)
Fresno State at Wyoming (+9, 79)
This slate is not as interesting as the mid-afternoon slate, but there are some hidden gems. Let’s filter this by starting with what to not waste your time on. Virginia Tech is hands off due to their inconsistent offense. Plus, I think they get a motivated and ticked off Miami team this week. West Virginia is also a stay away as they are a mess. Charles Sims is their only player worth considering. The Notre Dame/Pitt game also has the feel of a 21-17 stink-fest for fantasy purposes, especially since neither team has a great QB or clear lead back. Despite these warnings, there are some guys to target in these games….
… And that starts with Dallas Crawford. Remember when Duke Johnson got hurt a few weeks ago? Crawford went nuts against a pretty solid defense. With Duke out for the year, Crawford will get a full load to prove what he is capable of yet again. He’s also pretty cheap everywhere. Stephen Morris is a shaky QB2 option on multi QB sites. Texas is playing better, but it’s hard to trust anyone totally since their offense is inconsistent. They have several guys (Johnathan Gray, Malcolm Brown, Mike Davis) in the yellow zone. Washington will blow out Colorado, and Bishop Sankey has to be drooling over yet another cupcake matchup. He has the highest ceiling of any fantasy player this week. Colorado’s Paul Richardson might be in play with the team certain to be playing from behind after the first quarter.
The LSU/Alabama showdown is always fun to watch, and there might be some more scoring this year. Neither defense is as good as it has been in the past, and both offenses are improved. I’m still not going to take anyone from LSU, but Alabama guys such as McCarron and Yeldon are viable options. Just don’t overpay for them. The UCLA/Arizona game will be fun, and I like three guys from this one. Both QB’s (Hundley and Denker) make good plays, and don’t expect Ka’Deem Carey to be held out of the end zone for a second straight week.
The last game on this list is appointment television, everyone. Yes, Fresno State and Wyoming is appointment television. This game will feature TONS of points and ZERO defense. Fire up anyone you want if this game is in your game set. You can’t go wrong. Derek Carr, Marteze Waller, Davante Adams, Josh Harper, Brett Smith, Domonic Rufran, you name it. They’re all green…. easily. You would have a green light if you were a starting skill player in this game. I’ll be shocked if the game doesn’t come close or exceed 80 total points.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Dallas Crawford, Bishop Sankey, Paul Richardson, Brett Hundley, BJ Denker, KaDeem Carey, Derek Carr, Marteze Waller, Davante Adams, Josh Harper, Brett Smith, Domonic Rufran |
| | Johnathan Gray, Malcolm Brown, Mike Davis, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, AJ McCarron, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper, Tommy Rees |
| | Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, Tyler Boyd, Devin Street, Zach Mettenberger, Jeremy Hill, Arizona and UCLA WR’s |
Best of luck this week, and don’t forget to comment on this vs. the old format!! Thanks for reading!
-STL