Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 12
Believe it or not, we only have three full weeks of college football left until a short break followed by the six-month long bowl season (only slightly joking). That makes me kind of sad, as I will miss the sport that I happen to enjoy the most. That being said, we still have three weeks of fun to go, and it all culminates with DraftStreet’s second “Big Score” tournament on the final big week of the regular season… so there’s still that to look forward to. Week twelve should be an interesting one, as we have some good games and some shootouts on tap for the weekend.
I have researched more heavily this week than I have for any other week this season, and hopefully it pays dividends for all of us!! Without further ado, let’s get to the picks! Based on the feedback from last week, I will be using the new format for this week’s picks.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
12 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
West Virginia at Kansas (+6 1/2, 48 1/2)
Iowa State at Oklahoma (-24, 50)
Indiana at Wisconsin (-24, 69 1/2)
Ohio State at Illinois (+33, 67)
Purdue at Penn State (-21 1/2, 45 1/2)
UCF at Temple (+16 1/2, 56 1/2)
This is an interesting slate of games to start the day. I think there are some unheralded fantasy potential guys in the list as well. Paul Millard came in for an injured Clint Trickett and didn’t perform poorly last week, which makes him a success given the current state of affairs in Morgantown. He’s on the radar this week simply because they play Kansas. Don’t go nuts over him but I think he’s a viable cheap QB2 on some sites. Charles Sims is definitely an option because Kansas is dreadful on defense. For the Jayhawks, if you’re playing anyone it would be RB James Sims. I think this is the week to play him as this game might actually be competitive. The other Big XII game in this set will probably be just the opposite. Iowa State has been ravaged by injuries so I won’t take anyone there. Oklahoma’s skill guys are definitely in play – Blake Bell if you are feeling frisky, and perhaps leading receivers Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard. I wouldn’t touch the RB committee there.
The noon games are spearheaded as always by a trio of Big Ten tilts. They should all be blowouts. Fire up your Badgers, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions at will. I expect a huge bounce-back performance from Melvin Gordon this week as Indiana is not equipped to stop him at all. Be careful with James White as he is now WAY overpriced on some sites after his last few games. Jared Abbrederis makes a great WR2/3 also. Keep your eye on Stephen Houston for Indiana, who might make a nice value play if Tevin Coleman is forced to sit with an injury. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen how terrible the run defense is at Illinois. They have no chance at stopping Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde. That one will get ugly. I am lukewarm on Penn State simply because we have zero clue how their RB carries will shake out, and their QB Christian Hackenberg is below average. The only playable component there is every-week machine Allen Robinson.
Rounding out these games is an intriguing battle between UCF and Temple. A lot of players were on the UCF bandwagon last week, and they played a surprisingly low scoring game with Houston. I expect their offense to perform much better against an undermanned Temple team. Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson make for good fantasy plays. If your game set includes Temple, rising QB PJ Walker might be a sneaky GPP option as well.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Charles Sims, Stephen Houston, Melvin Gordon, Jared Abbrederis, Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles, Storm Johnson |
| | Paul Millard, James Sims, Blake Bell, Jalen Saunders, Sterling Shepard, Joel Stave, James White, PJ Walker |
| | Christian Hackenberg, Bill Belton, Zach Zwinak, Nathan Scheelhaase, all players from Purdue and Iowa State |
12:30 TO 3:30 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Maryland at Virginia Tech (-16, 42 1/2)
North Carolina at Pittsburgh (PK, 53)
NC State at Boston College (-7 1/2, 53 1/2)
Washington State at Arizona (-11, 66)
Miami (FL) at Duke (+3 1/2, 61)
Syracuse at Florida State (-38, 55 1/2)
Oklahoma State at Texas (+3, 63)
Michigan at Northwestern (-2 1/2, 52)
Michigan State at Nebraska (+5 1/2, 42)
Georgia at Auburn (-3, 63 1/2)
There are several mid-afternoon starts this week, so I’ll dismiss some of them off the bat. There are a few of these games that scream “no thanks” for fantasy purposes due to their lack of offensive talent or their wealth of defensive talent, and they all have low totals. Maryland/Virginia Tech is the first. Virginia Tech has the best corners in college football, so don’t get cute with any of Maryland’s newfound receivers this week. Don’t take anyone on the Hokies as they are only listed in game sets to frustrate you (ask us all about Logan Thomas). UNC/Pitt also has a fairly low total, so I am staying away outside a possible flyer on new UNC QB Marquise Williams if he is still cheap on any sites. He had a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown last week and is a dynamic talent. I am also not rostering anyone from the Michigan State/Nebraska game as that one has the lowest total of the week.
The other games all have a few guys you could consider playing. Running backs should dominate the NC State/Boston College game, as both teams love to run and can’t really pass. This puts both Shadrach Thornton, who has quietly seen a ton of carries the last three weeks, and Andre Williams, who always sees tons of carries, in play for sure. The only other player I would consider is Boston College WR Alex Amidon, and even that I am lukewarm on. The weekly Arizona weapons, BJ Denker and KaDeem Carey, are clearly viable options against a leaky Washington State defense, but it’s hard to trust anyone else in that game.
Miami and Duke is setting up to be a really good ball game. Miami is overrated in my opinion, and Duke is a little underrated. That being said, I still think you have to look at either Stephen Morris or Dallas Crawford for Miami if you can find them cheap. I love Jamison Crowder for Duke this week, and if Brandon Connette starts at QB after coming in late last week and leading them to victory, he is most certainly in play due to his running ability. Florida State will roll over Syracuse, and pretty much all their weekly options are good to fire up this week. Winston, provided he is not too distracted, Freeman, Greene, Shaw and O’Leary are all options at their positions this week.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas features my two favorite mid-tier plays of the week in RB’s Desmond Roland and Malcolm Brown. Roland continues to be underpriced despite three straight multi-touchdown games, and Brown is the undisputed starter for Texas due to the injury to Johnathan Gray. I wouldn’t really consider anyone else from this game. The Michigan vs. Northwestern game has a weird unknown feel to it, and I’m not overjoyed to take anyone from this game. Devin Gardner is turning the ball over more than ever, and you never know what to expect from Northwestern these days. Gallon and Funchess are the only good options, and even they aren’t “great” plays this week.
Capping off the mid-afternoon slate is an SEC clash that should be a good one between Georgia and Auburn. Nobody is talking about Aaron Murray, but he has a lot of his weapons back now and I think he has his biggest game of the season against a defense that can be exploited. Todd Gurley also appears fully recovered and should be in for a nice day. On the Auburn side, I think Nick Marshall is a little too pricey on most sites. If you’re paying up for an Auburn player, it had better be emerging star RB Tre Mason. I don’t trust Sammie Coates on a week-to-week basis, and he’s such a boom or bust player that I would only touch him in a GPP.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Shadrach Thornton, Andre Williams, BJ Denker, KaDeem Carey, Jamison Crowder, Jameis Winston, Devonta Freeman, Rashad Greene, Desmond Roland, Malcolm Brown, Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, Tre Mason |
| | Alex Amidon, Stephen Morris, Dallas Crawford, Brandon Connette (if he starts for sure), Nick O’Leary, Kenny Shaw, Jeremy Gallon, Devin Funchess, Chris Conley, Arthur Lynch, Nick Marshall |
| | Chase Rettig, Connor Halliday, Clint Chelf, Case McCoy, Devin Gardner, Fitzgerald Toussaint, players from the stay-away games |
4 PM AND LATER STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Utah at Oregon (-26, 64)
California at Colorado (-2 1/2, 66 1/2)
Florida at South Carolina (-12 1/2, 41 1/2)
Houston at Louisville (-15, 57 1/2)
Texas Tech at Baylor (-27 1/2, 85 1/2)
Alabama at Mississippi State (+23 1/2, 52)
Stanford at USC (+4, 46)
Oregon State at Arizona State (-14, 64)
Oregon’s offense looked slow when finally matched up against a solid defense. Stanford is legitimate. While I think they “get right” in this game, I think they’ll look somewhat lethargic in doing it. Marcus Mariota is banged up and I don’t think he’s worth his hefty price tag this week. We have no idea how the backfield will shake out carry-wise, and the receivers are unpredictable since they run so much. No thanks for me on Oregon this week. The LOL game of the year might actually have some fantasy players to target. Cal and Colorado are both completely disinterested on the defensive side of the ball, and this total actually seems way too low. The problem is figuring out who to target. Do you take a shot with inconsistent Cal QB Jared Goff or boom or bust WR Chris Harper? What about PPR machine Bryce Treggs? Can you trust Sefo Liufau to get Paul Richardson the ball? I don’t know who to trust the most, but I know points will be scored. If I had to guess, Harper and Richardson are the safest options.
The next game is an ideal contrast to the previous one. Florida and South Carolina are both known for their defense, and the projected total of 41 1/2 proves that out. I won’t be targeting anyone from this game for fantasy purposes. If there’s any playable option, Florida’s Kelvin Taylor might be a sneaky cheap option against a South Carolina defense that has weakened against the run in the second half of the year. Houston and Louisville has a chance to be a sneaky shootout, but I don’t like the matchup for Houston on the road coming off a big game last week. Teddy Bridgewater is in play, but is a bit too expensive for my tastes. If I take anyone from the Cardinals, it will be WR Devante Parker, who has played better in recent weeks.
You MUST find a way to get a piece of the Texas Tech vs. Baylor game. This is the highest total of the season and it might be competitive. There will be points. Lots of points. I don’t love the QB situation at Texas Tech, but they will be slinging. Ward and Amaro are safe plays. Baylor has been riddled by injuries on offense. Keep an eye on the RB situation. If Martin and Seastrunk are ruled out, Shock Linwood is a must play. Petty and Goodley are very safe options too, and Levi Norwood will step into the #2 WR role replacing the injured Tevin Reese. Please, take SOMEONE from this game. It’s a requirement this week.
Alabama will blow out Mississippi State and there isn’t much to see here. The Alabama skill players are decent options if you can find them at a reasonable price, but don’t overpay for them. Amari Cooper makes a good boom or bust GPP play, and OJ Howard is emerging as a legitimate force at tight end. In the Stanford/USC game, expect some letdown from Stanford going on the road after a big win. I actually like USC to pull the upset here. They have no chance of running on Stanford’s stout defense, so expect a full fledged effort to get Marqise Lee the ball this week. I’ll go down in flames again if he stinks like he did against Cal last week. Stanford doesn’t have a lot of high upside guys, but Tyler Gaffney and Ty Montgomery are solid cash game plays.
The last game of the evening will feature fireworks. Oregon State has no shot at stopping the machine that is the Arizona State offense, especially after the Sun Devils didn’t perform that well last week. Fire up Kelly, Grice, Coyle, and Strong (if healthy) this week. For Oregon State, Sean Mannion has fallen of late but could be an option in this one, especially if they are playing catch up. I think Brandin Cooks will have his first huge game in a while, too.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Paul Richardson, Chris Harper, Devante Parker, Eric Ward, Jace Amaro, Bryce Petty, Shock Linwood, Antwan Goodley, Levi Norwood, Marqise Lee, Tyler Gaffney, Brandin Cooks, Taylor Kelly, Marion Grice, Chris Coyle |
| | Josh Huff, Bralon Addison, Jared Goff, Sefo Liufau, Kelvin Taylor, John O’Korn, Deontay Greenberry, Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield, AJ McCarron, TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper, Ty Montgomery, Jaelen Strong (check injury status), Sean Mannion |
| | Marcus Mariota, DeAnthony Thomas, Byron Marshall, Connor Shaw, Mike Davis, Mack Brown, Lache Seastrunk (injured), Glasco Martin (injured), Dak Prescott, Kevin Hogan, Javorious Allen |