Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 13
Carlos Hyde was the fixture of the plays last week, and boy did that decision ever work out! Five touchdowns and over 250 yards later, his absence became an absolute killer if you did not have him on your week twelve teams. Thankfully, a lot of people did, and they were handsomely rewarded for it. Next week is actually the last full week of regular season college football, so we need to make these count! I’ll try to bring a similar type of article to bowl season, but we’ll have to see how the sites set those games up to figure out what works best. It’s still too early to worry about that – we have a full slate of games to break down this week!
In case you need a reminder, here are the tiers for my picks:
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
12 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Virginia at Miami (FL) (-19 1/2, 58)
Oklahoma at Kansas State (-4, 54)
Illinois at Purdue (+7, 56 1/2)
Michigan State at Northwestern (+7, 41)
Cincinnati at Houston (-2 1/2, 58)
Memphis at Louisville (-23, 43)
Michigan at Iowa (-6, 45 1/2)
Mississippi State at Arkansas (+1 1/2, 50 1/2)
This is pretty much a garbage set of games to start the day. Look at those matchups and tell me one game that’s anything remotely close to “must see” television. Two of the Big Ten games are ones that you should totally avoid. There’s no reason to roster a single player from Michigan State, Northwestern, Michigan, or Iowa this week. All these offenses have been struggling and the projected game totals tell you everything you need to know. The other Big Ten game on this list will be an interesting one for fantasy purposes, as terrible Illinois faces terrible Purdue. Any opposing running back with a pulse needs to be rostered against Illinois, and Akeem Hunt does have some talent. The problem is that the Boilermakers are always behind by so much that they have to stop running. That won’t be the case this week. Be careful with anyone on the unpredictable Purdue offense outside of Hunt. For the Illini, they are almost impossible to predict stat-wise. QB Nathan Scheelhaase is extremely inconsistent but tends to perform a lot better against weaker competition. This would definitely qualify as such a matchup.
Transitioning to the other games in this slate, I like Virginia to be able to keep the game close against Miami by using the talents of solid RB Kevin Parks. He is single handedly capable of at least keeping the Cavaliers in the game against a suspect Miami defense. On the Miami side of the ball, their receivers are impossible to predict every week, but I wouldn’t mind using Stephen Morris or Dallas Crawford this week. Remember, Duke Johnson is out for the year. Oklahoma and Kansas State will probably be one of the best games on this list. Trevor Knight should start this week after Blake Bell was concussed last week, and he certainly couldn’t do any worse. He’s an option as a cheap QB on multi-QB sites. Nobody else is consistent enough on these two offenses to be worth serious consideration outside of Kansas State RB John Hubert, who has been surprisingly relevant this season.
The Cincinnati/Houston game rightfully fields the highest total on this list. Brendon Kay is an intriguing option for a GPP as he has been playing really well of late. His top two receivers, Anthony McClung and Shaq Washington might also be worth a look. With Houston projected to hit 30 points, I think their weapons make decent plays. Top wide receiver Deontay Greenberry is questionable with a concussion, so avoid him. His absence would make Daniel Spencer a borderline must-play. QB John O’Korn also makes for a good option this week. Their timeshare at RB should be avoided. The Mississippi State/Arkansas game does not inspire much confidence fantasy-wise. If LaDarius Perkins were to finally get 15-20 carries, he would be viable. He’s been a major disappointment this season. Your best option for this game is probably Mississippi State wideout Jameon Lewis, who will easily be the most explosive player on the football field.
I’m surprised the Memphis/Louisville game has such a low total. I actually love the rebound potential of Teddy Bridgewater and company this week. They have not been playing well and this should be a “get right” game. I think they will win this going away. Bridgewater and his top receiving threats are in play for sure, including emerging WR DeVante Parker and TE Gerald Christian. Don’t even waste a breath on anyone from Memphis.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Kevin Parks, Dallas Crawford, Akeem Hunt, Brendon Kay, Daniel Spencer, Teddy Bridgewater, DeVante Parker, Gerald Christian, Jameon Lewis |
| | Stephen Morris, Allen Hurns, Jake McGee, Trevor Knight, John Hubert, Nathan Scheelhaase, Shaq Washington, Anthony McClung, LaDarius Perkins |
| | Sterling Shepard, Jalen Saunders, Jake Waters, Daniel Sams, Michigan State/Northwestern game, Michigan/Iowa game, Deontay Greenberry (injured) |
1 TO 4 PM STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
East Carolina at NC State (+6, 55)
Boston College at Maryland (PK, 54)
Nebraska at Penn State (-2, 48 1/2)
Indiana at Ohio State (-35, 81)
Oregon at Arizona (+20 1/2, 67 1/2)
Texas A&M at LSU (-5, 71)
BYU at Notre Dame (PK, 53 1/2)
California at Stanford (-31 1/2, 56)
Believe it or not, East Carolina and NC State players are available in a lot of game sets this week. Yes, the line on that game is correct, too. ECU should win this game, and they are led by an explosive trio of players in QB Shane Carden, WR Justin Hardy, and RB Vintavious Cooper. I really love the Carden/Hardy combination this weekend. If you don’t know who they are, watch this game and find out. NC State is a mess, and it sounds like Brandon Mitchell will start at QB this week. That’s generally going to be a no thanks for me, but his running ability gives him a hint of upside. Shadrach Thornton is easily their safest play despite his poor game running the ball last week. Boston College and Maryland is a straight forward game. Andre Williams is a great option as one of the top backs in the country. CJ Brown is a good option as he looked good in his return last week. Don’t even think about anyone else. Nebraska and Penn State is mainly a stay-away game for me. We don’t know how the Penn State running back situation will shake out on a weekly basis these days, so the only players I would consider are the safe options on both sides. That would encompass Ameer Abdullah for Nebraska and Allen Robinson for Penn State. Check Robinson’s status on Saturday to make sure he is active, as he has been nursing some minor injuries.
The next few games in this set have boatloads of rosterable players. Fire up any Buckeyes you want, as they follow a matchup with the horrible defense of Illinois with a game against an equally putrid defense in Indiana. Miller and Hyde will beast yet again. Be somewhat careful with the wideouts as this game could get out of hand early. Wisconsin didn’t have to throw at all against the Hoosiers last week. Oregon and Arizona should be an entertaining game, but think twice before plugging in Marcus Mariota. He didn’t look healthy last week and struggled against an average Utah team. Byron Marshall appears to have a stranglehold as the top back now, and he’s the safest play the Ducks have at the moment. For Arizona, you know they’ll give Carey the ball a ton to try to keep it away from the explosive Oregon offense. I actually really like him this week, but would hesitate to use anyone else on their team.
Texas A&M and LSU will play what should be a mighty entertaining football game. Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans always show up for these types of games and are A+ options. The running game and other receivers are too unpredictable to count on. LSU’s offense will revolve around Jeremy Hill, as Texas A&M struggles to stop good backs. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry should be able to break a few big plays too. This is a great game to target with your teams. The BYU/Notre Dame game is a tricky one to pinpoint, and that will lead to quite a bit of yellow light action here. Anyone could go off as these defenses are not fabulous, but the only person to consider easily a safe play is Notre Dame WR TJ Jones. He’s really come on over the past month as the top target for Tommy Rees.
As for the last game in this slate, Stanford will get to be the weekly Cal Bear punching bag. Tyler Gaffney and Ty Montgomery are elite options, and even Kevin Hogan might have a pretty solid game this week. Cal struggles to run the ball and now gets to face one of the best run defenses out there. Passing is their only option, but I still wouldn’t recommend anyone outside of explosive WR Chris Harper, who has been quiet for a few weeks now. Stanford isn’t great against opposing wideouts, and Harper might be able to break one at some point.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Shane Carden, Justin Hardy, Andre Williams, CJ Brown, Ameer Abdullah, Allen Robinson, Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, Byron Marshall, KaDeem Carey, Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans, Jeremy Hill, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, TJ Jones, Kevin Hogan, Tyler Gaffney, Ty Montgomery |
| | Vintavious Cooper, Shadrach Thornton, Cody Latimer, Devin Smith, Corey Brown, Marcus Mariota, Bralon Addison, Josh Huff, BJ Denker, Zach Mettenberger, Taysom Hill, Cody Hoffman, Tommy Rees, Davaris Daniels, Chris Harper |
| | Brandon Mitchell, Chase Rettig, Alex Amidon, Zach Zwinak, Bill Belton, Nate Sudfeld, Tre Roberson, Stephen Houston, Cam McDaniel, Jared Goff |
7 PM AND LATER STARTS
Vegas Odds of note:
Arizona State at UCLA (+2 1/2, 62)
Kentucky at Georgia (-24 1/2, 62 1/2)
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-3, 54 1/2)
Missouri at Ole Miss (+2 1/2, 57 1/2)
Kansas at Iowa State (-5, 45 1/2)
USC at Colorado (+22 1/2, 54)
Baylor at Oklahoma State (+10, 78)
A lot of folks will be scared off Taylor Kelly due to his poor game last week, but I wouldn’t let that discourage you. He remains a top option along with RB Marion Grice. Jaelen Strong remains their top wideout and is still priced way too cheaply on some sites now that his ankle is fully healed. UCLA is a tough team to predict, but you can never go wrong with taking Brett Hundley in a potential shootout. Just don’t overpay for RB/LB Myles Jack thanks to his four touchdowns last week. He doesn’t get all the carries because he plays both sides of the ball, and he’s not going to score four times again. The other Pac-12 night game pits a suddenly surging USC team against a Colorado team that actually won a game last week. Cody Kessler and Javorious Allen are very solid options against a putrid defense, while the USC wideouts are decent mid-range plays. You have to wonder if this is FINALLY the week for Marqise Lee. Just in case it’s not, don’t play him everywhere. He’s too risky at this point. Colorado is pretty easy to avoid, but as always Paul Richardson is a decent option if you feel the need or are playing a limited game set.
The evening SEC slate features two games that nobody will watch and one game that should be fine. Georgia should handle Kentucky with ease, and it’s a decent spot for Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley. Gurley finally looks healthy and saw the most touches he’s had all season last week. Their receiving game is a tough call on any given week, and I’m lukewarm on trying to choose one. The Vanderbilt/Tennessee game is a cruddy one, but it may have some fantasy potential. The return of Austyn Carta-Samuels is fabulous news for Jordan Matthews. For Tennessee, their usage of a freshman quarterback is a short-term struggle for them, but expect a lot of chances for underrated RB Rajion Neal in this one. The best game from this set is Missouri vs. Ole Miss. James Franklin is back for the Tigers and I expect him to pick up where he left off. As many may have forgotten, I’ll remind you that he was posting Heisman-worthy numbers before he got hurt. I also really like Ole Miss WR Donte Moncrief, as this feels like a game where he might go nuts for the first time in a while. Laquon Treadwell has been doing the heavy lifting of late and is still way too cheap on some sites. Both teams have some other guys who are targetable-but-not great, and you can see them in the list below.
Outside of Kansas RB James Sims, the game in Ames, Iowa is one to avoid. It’s a fantasy wasteland. On the other hand, the Baylor/Oklahoma State game has the most fantasy potential of the weekend. That’s becoming a trend in Baylor games, isn’t it? Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin are doubtful again, so fire away with Shock Linwood again. The rest of the Baylor weapons are green lights too, especially WR Antwan Goodley and QB Bryce Petty. Don’t be fooled into overpaying for Levi Norwood after last week. Goodley is still the top dog here. For Oklahoma State, I wouldn’t shy away from their skill players either. Like last week with Texas Tech, I expect the Cowboys to at least stay competitive in this one. Clint Chelf and Desmond Roland are definitely worthy of consideration, but steer clear of the unpredictable WR rotation.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Taylor Kelly, Marion Grice, Jaelen Strong, Brett Hundley, Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, Jordan Matthews, Rajion Neal, James Franklin, Donte Moncrief, James Sims, Cody Kessler, Javorious Allen, Bryce Petty, Antwan Goodley, Shock Linwood, Clint Chelf, Desmond Roland |
| | Chris Coyle, Shaquelle Evans, Arthur Lynch, Chris Conley, Austyn Carta-Samuels, Henry Josey, Dorial Green-Beckham, Bo Wallace, Laquon Treadwell, Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Paul Richardson, Levi Norwood |
| | Myles Jack, Devin Fuller, Jordan Payton, Joshua Dobbs, Marcus Lucas, L’Damian Washington, rest of Kansas/Iowa State game, Sefo Liufau, Christian Powell, Oklahoma State WR’s |