Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 2
Welcome back to CFB Week 2’s edition of CFB “Traffic Lights” plays. I’m going to change the format up a bit this week and break things down by the early game slate and the late game slate – these picks will be primarily based on only the games that are included on BOTH Fanduel and Draftkings. Be sure to know your game sets as there are some games available on 1 site but not the other. For example Arizona St/New Mexico and Colorado State/Boise are only on Fanduel and you’ll want to take a long look at Ajayi, Foster, Strong, Kelly and even Dee Hart.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate CFB Games
| Akron at Penn State(-14,52.5) | Fresno State at Utah (-10.5, 64) |
| CMU at Purdue (-3, 54) | Ball St. at Iowa (-17, 53.5) |
| FAU at Alabama (-40, 48) | Maryland at South Fla (+12.5, 50) |
| Kansas State at Iowa State (+12, 58) | MTSU at Minn (-16, 51.5) |
| Missouri at Toledo (+6, 61) | NIU at Northwestern (-7, 57.5) |
| Oklahoma at Tulsa (-23, 57) | Ohio at Kentucky (-12.5, 52.5) |
| Western Kentucky at Illinois (-6, 64) | USC at Stanford (-2.5, 55) |
| Navy at Temple (+3, 55) | Georgia Tech at Tulane (+10, 52.5) |
| UAB at Miss. State (-28, 57.5) | Mississippi at Vanderbilt (+20, 50.5) |
Kansas State at Iowa State
Iowa State got hammered on the ground by an FCS team, albeit the defending FCS national champion and one who also beat KSU last year, but allowing an FCS team to rush for 302 yards and 4 TD’s on 44 carries is alarming. ISU also struggled on the ground in 2013 and in last year’s game KSU attacked ISU with 48 rush attempts for 226 yards, including 20 rush attempts by the quarterback tandem of Sams and Waters (Sams has since transferred so this is all Waters this year). The KSU backfield is a running back by committee (RBBC) so they can be avoided. The Kansas State QB, Jake Waters, is an under the radar dual threat and led KSU in rush attempts last week with 17. He’s probably your best bet to take advantage of the ISU run D. When Waters isn’t having success on the ground he’ll be throwing to one of the best in the country in Tyler Lockett.
The ISU offense didn’t look great in the opener and is searching for playmakers after losing top WR, Quenton Bundrage, to a torn acl in the first quarter of last week’s game. The top candidates are pre-season Big 12 TE, EJ Bibbs, who was MIA in week 1, and top 50 national recruit, Allen Lazard, who is replacing Bundrage. Iowa State’s running back, Aaron Wimberly, scored 2 td’s but only received 9 carries in Week 1. It’s probably best to take a wait and see approach with the ISU offense against a solid KSU defense.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Jake Waters, Tyler Lockett |
| | EJ Bibbs |
| | Rest of ISU offense, KSU Running Backs |
Missouri at Toledo
Vegas likes this game to be one of the higher scoring games in the early slate and projects a close game so it’s a good game to target. The Toledo QB, Philip Ely, is a transfer from Alabama and had a nice Week 1 throwing for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns against New Hampshire. Alonzo Russell is probably the top option at WR for Toledo but they spread it around in Week 1 with 9 different receivers catching a pass. Kareem Hunt had a strong finish to 2013 after taking over for David Fluellen and started off strong last week with 136 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. Missouri won 38-23 last year but Toledo had success on the ground averaging 5.4 ypc and return 4 of 5 OL. Hunt should be in a good spot.
Toledo struggled against the pass in 2013 allowing 251 ypg (#92 nationally) and struggled in Week 1 vs New Hampshire allowing 338 passing yards. With the close Vegas spread and Toledo’s struggles vs the pass, Maty Mauk makes a solid play, and could be extra juiced for this one as he returns to his home state of Ohio for this matchup. Darius White, a former heralded recruit and transfer from Texas, was the big play guy in Week 1 for Missouri with 2 receptions for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Mauk spread it around with no WR over 3 receptions. Toledo was average vs the run in 2013 and wasn’t tested in Week 1, but will get a strong test from Missouri’s spread rushing attack. Missouri was thought to be a RBBC but Hansbrough had 20 carries for 126 yards and a TD in Week 1 while Marcus Murphy only had 9 carries, as Missouri is also using Murphy as their kick and punt returner.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Maty Mauck, Russell Hansbrough, Kareem Hunt |
| | Phillip Ely, Darius White, Bud Sasser, Alonzo Russell |
| | None |
Western Kentucky at Illinois
Illinois was a bottom 5 defense in 2013 allowing 240 passing ypg and 239 rushing ypg. They were better in Week 1 but allowed over 200 yards rushing to Youngstown State. Enter Western Kentucky, an uptempo offense, fresh off 708 yards of total offense against Bowling Green in Week 1. All of the Western Kentucky skill players are in play. The QB, Brandon Doughty, was 46/56 for 569 yards and 6 touchdowns in Week 1, while the RB, Leon Allen, had 28 carries for 93 yards and a TD. Doughty’s top targets are Taywan Taylor and Jared Dangerfield, who both had monster week 1 games, and TE Mitchell Henry who had 6 receptions for 77 yards.
Western Kentucky allowed 465 yards of offense in Week 1, including 313 yards passing. Illinois came out throwing the ball in Week 1 with Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt, who had a solid debut of 285 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. Illinois was pass heavy in Week 1 so RB Josh Ferguson only had 11 carries, but he’s a great receiver out of the backfield and had 4 receptions for 37 yards and a TD. I’ll be taking a wait and see approach with the Illinois wide receivers as Lunt spread it around in Week 1, but it’s expected the Barr and Allison will eventually be the top guys. The Illinois TE, Jon Davis, had a receiving TD in week 1 and is a cheap option at TE.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Wes Lunt, Josh Ferguson, Brandon Doughty, Leon Allen, Taywan Taylor, Mitchell Henry |
| | Jon Davis |
| | Illinois WR’s |
Fresno State at Utah
Fresno State was the #117 ranked pass defense in 2013. The struggles continued in Week 1 as they got obliterated by USC and Cody Kessler allowing 394 yard passing and 4 touchdowns (not to mention 277 yards rushing), including 5 passing plays over 20 yards in the first half alone. Utah WR Dres Anderson is a big play guy and he exhibited that in Week 1 with only 4 receptions but they accounted for 113 yards for a 27.8 average. In 2013, he averaged 18 yards per reception. The combination of Fresno’s propensity to give up big plays, and Dres’ big play ability set up perfect for a big yardage night for Dres. Travis Wilson threw for 265 yards and a TD in the first half in the Week 1 blowout and added a rush td. Westlee Tonga is a solid target at TE. The Utah running game is RBBC between Devontae Booker and Bubba Poole and is best avoided for the time being.
Fresno State played 2 quarterbacks in Week 1 rotating between Connette and Burrell. I’ll be avoiding the Fresno State passing game. Josh Quezada is banged up and Marteze Waller is listed as the starting RB. He was the lone bright spot against USC rushing 16 times for 97 and adding 3 receptions for 25 yards. Utah allowed 179 yards rushing and 4 ypc against Idaho State so Waller is a solid play.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Dres Anderson |
| | Marteze Waller, Travis Wilson, Westlee Tonga |
| | Utah Running Backs |
USC at Stanford
USC’s offense was fantastic in Week 1 running a Pac 12 record 105 plays and totaling 700 yards of total offense with Cody Kessler, Javorious Allen, Nelson Agholor, and true freshman JuJu Smith leading the way, but now comes the Stanford defense. This game has been low scoring the past 2 years with USC winning 20-17 last year and Stanford winning 21-14 in 2012. The Stanford run defense has been stout in recent years, but they were vulnerable against the pass last year allowing 253 ypg (#96 nationally) so if you want to target the USC offense I would target Agholor. Cody Kessler underwent a toe procedure on Tuesday but is expected to play. Monitor the situation just in case.
Kelsey Young is listed as the starting Stanford RB but didn’t receive the bulk of the carries in Week 1 and it looks like it could be a RBBC with Young and Barry Sanders Jr. Ty Montgomery is Stanford’s big play guy in the passing game and on special teams. Both defenses look to very solid this year so I’ll be mostly staying away as I think there are other games that present lower hanging fruit.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | None |
| | Nelson Agholor, Ty Montgomery |
| | Javorius Allen, Stanford Running Backs |
Florida Atlantic at Alabama
You’re probably wondering why I’m discussing a game with a 40 point spread. I think it presents an interesting dilemma as Alabama has a high point total and is facing a FAU team that got absolutely GASHED on the ground by Nebraska last week for an insane 498 rushing yards. That would seem to point towards Yeldon and Henry who dominated the RB touches with 23 and 17 carries respectively. However, we’ve got a BIG spread and I think that could change this week due to the opponent as Saban has used these type of games to get a ton of guys touches, getting as many as 6 running backs carries in recent years. Here are the past 2 years of Alabama’s blowout non-conference games with the most carries any RB had listed in parentheses. 2013 – Colorado State (7), Georgia Southern (6), Chattanooga (11 – Yeldon DNP). 2012- Florida Atlantic (15),Western Kentucky (9), W. Carolina (10).
FAU’s horrific run defense jumps off the page but you’re probably looking at a highwater mark of 15 carries for Yeldon and Henry and more likely in the 9-10 range so there is a lot more risk than one would think given the matchup. If I’m taking anyone it would be Henry if he is still cheap and just hope he makes every carry count and goes 8/100/2. Amari Cooper looks to be in for a big year under New OC Lane Kiffin but I do worry about the blowout. Kiffin was an unmitigated disaster as headcoach at USC but his offenses produced big years for Robert Woods and Marqise Lee. Cooper was a beneficiary in Week 1 as he totaled 12 receptions for 130 yards (he had more than 5 receptions only twice all of last year). Both Sims and Coker should see time so avoid the Alabama quarterbacks.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | None |
| | Derrick Henry, Amari Cooper, TJ Yeldon |
| | Coker and Sims, FAU |
Other Early Slate Green Lights: Christian Hackenberg, Geno Lewis, DaeSean Hamilton, Raheem Mostert, Thomas Rawls (sleeper), Trevor Knight, Sterling Shephard, Dak Prescott, Josh Robinson, CJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell
Other Early Slate Yellow Lights: Kevonte Martin-Manley, PJ Walker, Keenan Reynolds, Tony Jones, Justin Sinz, Tony Jones, DeAndre Smelter, Justin Thomas
Other Early Slate Red Lights: Akron, FAU, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, Ball State, Middle Tennessee, Northern Illinois, and Ohio. There are some guys on these teams like Jordan Howard, Keevan Lucas, Dane Evans, Marlon Mack who had monster games last week but they are facing better competition, have projected lower team over/unders, and their price has risen in some spots so they would be site specific plays at best.
Late Slate CFB Games (Note: MSU/ORE and ODU/NC State are included in the FD early set)
| Old Dominion at NC State (-16, 64) | Virginia Tech at Ohio St. (-11.5, 48) |
| Michigan State at Oregon (-12, 58) | Memphis at UCLA (-24, 54) |
| East Carolina at South Carolina (-16.5, 63) | Oregon St. at Hawaii (+10.5, 59) |
| BYU at Texas (-3.5, 48) | Texas Tech at UTEP (+20.5, 64) |
| Michigan at Notre Dame (-4.5, 54.5) | San Diego State at UNC (-15, 60) |
Michigan State at Oregon
Michigan State is built similar to Stanford with their strong rushing attack and physical defense, and I expect them to try to emulate what the Cardinal did to Oregon the past 2 years by pounding the rock. In Stanford’s 2013 win over Oregon, Tyler Gaffney had 46 carries and in their 2012 win, Stepfan Taylor had 33 carries. Langford only carried it 13 times in the Week 1 blowout as I imagine they were saving him for a big workload in Eugene. I think we’ll see a ton of volume for Langford this week and he should double the 13 carries he received last week. Tony Lippett finished 2013 strong and had a huge Week 1 with 4 receptions for 167 yards and 2 tds.
Michigan State was the #2 rush defense in 2013 and is expected to field one of the top defenses in the country again. It’s not often you see an Oregon game with an over/under below 60. The tough matchup with Michigan State makes it tough to stomach Mariota’s price tag, but I can’t blame you for playing the top dual threat QB in the country. One interesting note is that with the loss of top WR, Bralon Addison, and the addition of 5 star freshman RB, Royce Freeman and fellow top RB, Thomas Tyner, Byron Marshall saw a lot of time in the slot in Week 1 and had 8 receptions for 138 yards in first half alone. The Ducks are loaded at RB with Marshall, Tyner and Freeman. We didn’t get a lot of info on the how the carries will be divided as last week’s game got out of hand early. Final tally for Week 1 was Tyner (11), Freeman(10) and Marshall (8 – including 1 in which he pulled a DeSean Jackson and dropped the ball before crossing the goal line). Marshall is your safest bet due to his increased use in the passing game and Vegas does project Oregon to score 35 points.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Jeremy Langford, Byron Marshall(preferably on PPR) |
| | Marcus Mariota, Tony Lippett |
| | Oregon WR |
Virginia Tech at Ohio State
JT Barrett started slow but picked it up in his 1st start last week but OSU only threw the ball 15 times. I’ll wait to see how he fares against a tougher Virginia Tech defense before using him in a matchup like this. Ezekiel Elliott was thought to be the top RB but he’s working his way back from a wrist injury and last week was RBBC. The VT backfield is also still RBBC with no back getting more than 12 in the opener. Virginia Tech’s QB Michael Brewer, a transfer from Texas Tech, had a solid week 1 but nothing that knocks your socks off. Due to the low Vegas over/under and RBBC I’ll be fading this game entirely.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | None |
| | None |
| | Both Offenses |
BYU at Texas
The big news is that David Ash is out vs BYU, and possibly done for his career. To make matters worse, they also lost their starting center for the year. The backup QB is Tyrone Swoopes, who is not ready as a passer, but offers some running ability. I expect Texas to run the ball a ton and try to shorten the game and rely on their defense. The only 2 Texas players I would consider would be Malcolm Brown and Jonathan Gray. I worry that they will see a ton of 8 man boxes though due to the lack of a passing threat.
Last year, the BYU offense embarrassed Texas rushing for 550 yards with Taysom Hill running for 259 yards and 3tds, and Jamaal Williams running for 182 yards. Not surprisingly, the Texas DC got fired. You can bet new defensive minded head coach Charlie Strong has not let his defense forget about last year, and they’ll be looking for redemption. Texas returns 2 very good DL in Reed and Brown and the Texas defense is the strength of the team. I could see Taysom as a GPP play due to his big game last year together with his dual threat abilities but his high price tag and a quality Texas front 7 have me staying away. In general, I think this entire slate presents a good opportunity to fade the higher profile matchups like VT/OSU, Texas/BYU, and Mich/ND (especially on a site like Fanduel which has included CSU/Boise, and ASU/UNM plus others) as in year’s past the players in high profile games tend to have higher ownership. In this instance none of the high profile games are even in the top 5 projected scoring games.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | None |
| | Taysom Hill, Jonathan Gray, Malcolm Brown |
| | Swoopes and Texas wide receivers |
Other Late Slate Green Lights: Jacoby Brissett, DJ Foster, Jaelen Strong, Taylor Kelly, Marquise Williams, Justin Hardy, Davis Webb, Bradley Marquez, Jakeem Grant, Aaron Jones, Connor Hamlett, Sean Mannion, Brett Hundley,Jay Ajayi, Dee Hart,
Other Late Slate Yellow Lights: Devin Gardner, Devin Funchess, Everett Golson, Brandon Wilds/Dylan Thompson (if Mike Davis is confirmed out then bump Wilds and Thompson up), Shaq Roland, Shane Carden, DeAndre Washington, Storm Woods, Victor Bolden, Donnell Pumphrey, Ezell Ruffin, Taylor Heinicke
Other Late Slate Red Lights: Memphis
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you.