Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 3
Welcome to the Week 3 edition of my weekly college football plays. Week 2 was a mixed bag as I totally whiffed on the USC offense and Taysom Hill. I was shocked to see BYU roll over Texas like that. However, the Oregon picks were golden and Jeremy Gallon was a beast for Michigan. He’s going to have a monster year hooking up with Devin Gardner. Anyway, let’s move on to week 3 and try to hit some picks out of the park! There are quite a few solid matchups on the table this week, so we should have some entertaining football as opposed to the cupcake fest from last week.
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a “traffic light” format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Traffic Light Tiers
- Green Light – All systems go, feel free to plug this player safely into all lineups.
- Yellow Light – No real feeling for or against the player, feel free to use the player in some lineups but don’t go all out to get him.
- Red Light – Avoid the player at all costs.
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to the week three edition of traffic light plays!
UCLA at Nebraska
Vegas Odds – Nebraska -4 ½ / O/U 70
Hello, fantasy goodness. This game should be easy pickings for some fantasy points on Saturday. Both teams deploy electric offenses with suspect defenses. Remember, Wyoming put up solid offensive numbers in week one vs. Nebraska and their defense is not what it once was. This game will feature two quarterbacks that can move the ball through the air and on the ground in Brett Hundley and Taylor Martinez, and they could both easily rank among the top five quarterbacks in fantasy scoring on Saturday. The running back situation is a little more unclear. Jordan James appears to have wrestled the starting job at UCLA and took a lion’s share of carries in the opener. For Nebraska, Ameer Abdullah is the feature back but Imani Cross has become a nice change of pace and goal line back. The receivers leave a little bit to be desired on both sides. Nebraska tends to run the ball too much to make any receivers relevant, whereas UCLA uses so many guys that it’s hard to know who to count on outside of Shaquelle Evans. I love him as a potential sleeper pick this week.
Green Light – Brett Hundley, Taylor Martinez, Shaquelle Evans
Yellow Light – Jordan James, Ameer Abdullah
Red Light – Nebraska WR’s
Alabama at Texas A&M
Vegas Odds – Alabama -7 ½ / O/U 60
Nothing like having the “game of the year” in week three. You better believe that Nick Saban and the Tide have had this game circled on their calendars for a year now. They’re bitter about losing to Johnny Football last year and nobody plays the motivational card better than Nick Saban. At first glance, I was surprised at how high the total was. Then I realized that A&M gave up chunks of yards and points to Rice and Sam Houston State. Their defense is very leaky and they have to count on the offense to pick up the slack. Against Alabama, though, that might be a problem. I love all the Alabama weapons this week and am extremely high on TJ Yeldon and Amari Cooper. Even McCarron could be in play if he’s cheap enough on your site. As for Texas A&M, Manziel is so highly priced that this is the week to pass on him. He will get his numbers but won’t pay off his lofty price tag. The Aggies use 3 running backs on a regular rotation, so it’s hard to peg which of those will have a good day. The only guy I like on that team is Mike Evans, because they should have a hard time running on Alabama and look to air it out more.
Green Light – TJ Yeldon, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans
Yellow Light – AJ McCarron
Red Light – Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M RB’s
Washington at Illinois
Vegas Odds – Washington -9 ½ / O/U 62
Keith Price looked like the 2011 Keith Price and not the 2012 Keith Price in Week 1. That’s good news for Washington fans and fantasy owners alike. Throw in a matchup against a horrific Illinois defense and you have a great spot for Keith Price here. Washington’s offense is easy to predict on a week to week basis, which is great for fantasy players. Bishop Sankey is a workhorse RB that should gash the Illinois defense. Kasen Williams is a true #1 wideout, and tight end Austin Sefarian Jenkins is the best in college football. Just watch the injury reports as he was dealing with a little injury in camp, and he missed week one due to suspension. All these guys are free to fire away this week and I expect a blowout here. As for Illinois, Nathan Scheelhaase has progressed into a decent QB this year. He is looking to throw more often and seems more confident in the pocket. Their running backs are solid in Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young, but they split time evenly. The wide receivers are too inconsistent to count on.
Green Light – Keith Price, Bishop Sankey, Kasen Williams
Yellow Light – Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (check injury status), Nathan Scheelhaase
Red Light – Illinois RB’s and WR’s
Mississippi at Texas
Vegas Odds – Texas -2 ½ / O/U 65
I think BYU just scored ANOTHER rushing touchdown against Texas last week. That was one of the most disgraceful defensive performances from a decent team that I have seen in a long time, and you know that Ole Miss is watching film on that game. The problem is that Ole Miss doesn’t have the caliber of running backs that BYU does. I think it puts Jeff Scott in play, but doesn’t make him a must play. Bo Wallace should be good to roll in this game, and I love Donte Moncrief to bounce back from a poor week one showing. As for Texas, WR Daje Johnson is out for the game with an injury, which will put more of a burden on Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis to step up. The three-headed monster still exists at RB, so I will be avoiding that. David Ash is a decent play but his good start to the season probably has him priced too highly on a lot of sites. Don’t overpay for him this week.
Green Light – Bo Wallace, Donte Moncrief, Mike Davis
Yellow Light –David Ash, Jeff Scott, Jaxon Shipley
Red Light – Daje Johnson
Wisconsin at Arizona State
Vegas Odds – Arizona State -5 ½ / O/U 52
Wisconsin is impossible to gauge at this point because they’ve played two ridiculously easy opponents and have barely had to throw the ball. Although that’s Wisconsin’s bread and butter, they will have to throw more this week against Arizona State. Joel Stave will have to prove that he can effectively pass the ball to prevent Arizona State from stacking the box to stop the two headed beast that is John White and Melvin Gordon. If ASU tries to take away the run, look for an absolutely monster game from Wisconsin’s only receiving threat in Jarred Abbrederis. As for the Sun Devils, they are led by redshirt junior Taylor Kelly at QB and the versatile Marion Grice at RB. I expect Arizona State to run the ball a lot more this year and use Grice similar to how the Lions are going to use Reggie Bush this year. Their best receiving option is TE Chris Coyle, who is a definite target if he’s at a low salary.
Green Light – Jarred Abbrederis, Marion Grice, Chris Coyle
Yellow Light – John White, Melvin Gordon, Taylor Kelly
Red Light – Joel Stave
Notre Dame at Purdue
Vegas Odds – Notre Dame -20 / O/U 49
When I recommended Tommy Rees and the Notre Dame offense in week one, I only did it because they were playing Temple. I did not expect them to become an offensive juggernaut. Although the offense looked great against Michigan, that’s a second opponent that has a relatively weak defense. The good news is that Notre Dame gets yet another terrible defense here in Purdue. Expect another big game out of Tommy Rees and some of his targets in TJ Jones, DaVaris Daniels, and Troy Niklas. Just be careful as Niklas has become WAY overpriced on a lot of sites thanks to his huge game last week. The RB situation is still too cloudy to make an educated guess on who will come out on top, but I love the passing game. Avoid everyone from Purdue as they are terrible and the only reason for this write-up was to note the success Notre Dame should have throwing the ball.
Green Light – Tommy Rees, TJ Jones, DaVaris Daniels
Yellow Light – Troy Niklas
Red Light – Everyone on Purdue
Other “ Green Light “ plays from games I did not break down include:
1)Jameis Winston – Florida State QB
2)Marcus Mariota – Oregon QB
3)Blake Bell (Sleeper) – Oklahoma QB
4)DeAnthony Thomas – Oregon RB
5)Jordan Hall – Ohio State RB
6)Tre Madden (Sleeper) – USC RB
7)Marqise Lee – USC WR – if he’s gotten really, really cheap
8)Jamison Crowder – Duke WR
9)Bryce Treggs (Sleeper) – Cal WR – don’t be scared by matchup, Cal throws a ton
10)Jake Murphy – Utah TE
Good luck this week!