Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 4
Welcome to the Week 4 edition of my weekly college football plays. Outside of completely whiffing on my “avoid Manziel” pick from last week, it was the best week yet for the plays. Hopefully we can keep that train rolling this week. There aren’t very many good football games on the slate this week, but I’ll try to dissect some of the better ones.
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a ìtraffic lightî format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Traffic Light Tiers
- Green Light – All systems go, feel free to plug this player safely into all lineups.
- Yellow Light – No real feeling for or against the player, feel free to use the player in some lineups but don’t go all out to get him.
- Red Light – Avoid the player at all costs.
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the playability of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now letís get to the week three edition of traffic light plays!
Kansas State at Texas
Vegas Odds – Texas -5 1/2 / O/U 58
Boy this Texas defense is just awful. They have been lit up — especially on the ground — by BYU and Ole Miss over the last two weeks. Now they get a team in Kansas State that runs a similar offense to BYU. Unfortunately, Kansas State is splitting drives at their QB position. Their running back John Hubert is easily the best fantasy play on the team, while the receivers are pretty much off limits because they don’t throw often. Tyler Lockett is the best of the bunch if you are desperate. As for Texas, QB David Ash is questionable to return from his injury this week. Assuming he sits out again, I really like the way Johnathan Gray has been running the football. He is becoming their lead back, and although he loses goal line touches, he’s done well enough to be serviceable at a cheap salary. Wide receivers Daje Johnson and Mike Davis are both questionable for the game, so it’s best to avoid them. The Texas passing game hasn’t been strong enough to consider anyone outside of Davis at the moment.
- Green Light – John Hubert, Johnathan Gray
- Yellow Light – Tyler Lockett
- Red Light – Kansas State QB’s, Mike Davis (injury), Daje Johnson (injury)
Missouri at Indiana
Vegas Odds – Missouri -1 / O/U 71
This is one of the best fantasy games of the weekend. It’s expected to be close and neither defense can stop anyone. Missouri is led by dynamic dual-threat QB James Franklin. Finally healthy again, he is proving to be a great weapon for the Tigers in 2013 both running and throwing the football. His running takes away the value of his team’s RB’s (similar to Texas A&M), but he has an emerging WR stud in Dorial Green-Beckham. As for Indiana, their offense has been a lot better since the reins have been handed to Nate Sudfeld at the QB position. He’s been given the go ahead to sling the ball a lot, mainly because Indiana’s defense can’t stop anyone. They have two decent RB’s in Stephen Houston and Tevin Coleman, but it’s hard to know which one to trust on a weekly basis. Their receiving corps is led by three guys, none of whom is better of an option than the other, in Cody Latimer, Kofi Hughes, and Shane Wynn. Even TE Ted Bolser is becoming a weapon this year. The problem becomes guessing who’s going to be the top dog in a given week.
- Green Light – James Franklin, Nate Sudfeld, Dorial Green-Beckham
- Yellow Light – Ted Bolser, Tevin Coleman, Stephen Houston, Indiana WR’s
- Red Light – Missouri RB’s
SMU at Texas A&M
Vegas Odds – Texas A&M -29 / O/U 78
I know my instructions state that I avoid games with this high of a spread, but I couldn’t resist writing this one up. SMU is led by June Jones and his “air raid” offense, and they love to pass the ball upwards of 60 times a game. The good news for them is that Texas A&M can’t stop anyone. Even Rice and Sam Houston State have scored points against the Aggies this year. This puts everyone from SMU’s passing game in play, including QB Garrett Gilbert and both of his top wideouts, Jeremy Johnson and Darius Joseph. Don’t be fooled by the 29 point spread as that just means they’ll be throwing more. Vegas expects the final score to be in the 54-25 range. If SMU scores four touchdowns, these guys will be worth their price tags. As far as Texas A&M goes, I don’t really need to break this down. Vegas expects them to score 54 points. Their offense revolves around Manziel and Evans. If you can fit them in your lineup, do it. Ben Malena is their lead back and might also be a good play if you can get him cheap.
- Green Light – Garrett Gilbert, Jeremy Johnson, Darius Joseph, Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans
- Yellow Light – Ben Malena
- Red Light – SMU RB’s
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Vegas Odds – Georgia Tech -6 / O/U 60
I am very surprised to see how little respect North Carolina is getting in this game, despite the fact that it’s on the road. They have a seasoned QB in Bryn Renner who has all the talent in the world despite two subpar games to start the season. His DFS price is ridiculously low across the industry this week and I think this is the time to take advantage. If UNC happens to be playing from behind, that’s even better. The running back situation is muddled but seemingly led by Romar Morris. I would avoid the mess until we get some more clarity. Expect a breakout game from TE Eric Ebron or WR Quinshad Davis this week as well. For the Yellow Jackets, it is interesting to see them throwing the ball a bit more with Vad Lee at the helm. He attempted 16 passes last week and also ran the ball 22 times. He’s a dynamic weapon and a huge upgrade over Tevin Washington, especially through the air. Although they love to run the ball, nine different backs got carries last week and your guess is as good as mine about who to target there. Avoid the receivers as they still don’t throw enough to make that worth it.
- Green Light – Bryn Renner, Vad Lee, Eric Ebron
- Yellow Light – Quinshad Davis
- Red Light – Georgia Tech RB’s and WR’s, Romar Morris, A.J. Blue
Tennessee at Florida
Vegas Odds – Florida -16 / O/U 47
Tennessee decided to hang with Oregon for a quarter last week before settling in to get absolutely blasted. Justin Worley looks completely overmatched at the QB position and drags all their receivers down with him. Their running backs (Marlin Lane and Rajion Neal) are both solid and the main bright spot on the offense. The problem is that they split carries and are going against one of the best run defenses in college football. Their whole offense is getting the stay away from me this week. For the Gators, I expected a decent year out of their offense. Jeff Driskel has a year under his belt and has some play-making talent at running back with Matt Jones. To this point, I couldn’t have been more wrong. They’ve looked bad. Driskel is off limits until they prove something. Matt Jones and WR/wildcat QB Trey Burton are the only plays I would consider this week — and that’s only because the Gators are such large favorite. I think there’s plenty of value elsewhere in college football this weekend and this game is best left alone.
- Green Light – Nobody
- Yellow Light – Matt Jones, Trey Burton
- Red Light – The rest of this mess
West Virginia at Maryland
Vegas Odds – Maryland -5 / O/U 53
West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen finally got tired of Clint Trickett and Paul Millard and gave Ford Childress the keys to the offense last week. Although he ripped off a 300 yard day, it was against a bad FCS team in Georgia State. Expect the Mountaineers to go with a run-heavy game plan this week, and I love Charles Sims as a fantasy option. He should get close to 20 carries this week and the running back options are very slim across the industry. They haven’t shown a consistent enough threat at WR to make any of them worthwhile at this time. For the Terrapins, they are 3-0 primarily due to the play of C.J. Brown and his stud WR Stefon Diggs. They are hooking up for big yardage on a weekly basis and Brown has been running the ball very well when given the opportunity. Remember, this West Virginia pass defense was dreadful a year ago. Although they have better stats this year so far, they haven’t played anyone that can throw (2 FCS teams and Oklahoma before Blake Bell came along). Fire away on Brown and Diggs this week. Even their running back situation is clearing up as Brandon Ross received 18 carries last week to just 5 for Albert Reid.
- Green Light – Charles Sims, CJ Brown, Stefon Diggs
- Yellow Light – Brandon Ross
- Red Light – West Virginia WR’s
Other * Green Light plays from games I did not break down include:
1) Bryce Petty – Baylor QB
2) Baker Mayfield – Texas Tech QB (make sure he’s good to go after injury last week)
3) John O’Korn (Sleeper) – Houston QB
4) Odell Beckham – LSU WR
5) Eric Ward – Texas Tech WR
6) DeVante Parker – Louisville WR
7) Ty Montgomery (Sleeper) – Stanford WR
8) Chris Coyle – Arizona State TE
9) Austin Seferian Jenkins – Washington TE
10) Dan Vitale – Northwestern TE
Good luck in Week 4!