Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 5
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of my weekly college football plays. Last week was a pretty solid week for the plays, outside of the mess that became the West Virginia/Maryland game. That was primarily due to bad weather, so we’ll chalk a point up to mother nature there.
This week has a slate of games that’s about ten times better than last week, plus conference play is starting in a lot of leagues this week. That should make the “surprise” scratches total dwindle a little bit. Also, we have a little more concrete data to start basing predictions on. As a result of these factors, this starts to be the time of year where college football becomes quite a bit easier to play.
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a “traffic light” format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas Odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to the week five edition of traffic light plays!
Colorado at Oregon State
- Vegas Odds – Oregon State -11 / O/U 59 1/2
It’s the Paul Richardson and Brandin Cooks show! This game is going to be simple to break down.
1) Both teams LOVE to throw.
2) Both teams HATE to run.
3) Both teams AVOID playing much pass defense, especially Oregon State.
Load up on the passing weapons in this game. Then sit back and watch the aerial raid begin. This game is the sneaky must-watch game of the week for me. The only guy I would be cautious with is either QB if they are too expensive on your site. Also, Cooks is unplayable on DraftStreet because he’s priced like the next coming of Johnny Manziel.
| Colorado at Oregon State Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
 | Connor Wood, Paul Richardson, Sean Mannion, Brandin Cooks |
 | Terron Ward 1 |
 | All other running backs in the game |
1 – Like Terron Ward if he’s still cheap on your given daily fantasy site
Oklahoma at Notre Dame
- Vegas Odds – Oklahoma -3 1/2 / O/U 49
This game has all the makings of a slugfest. It’s about as close as you will come to an NFL-style game played at the collegiate level, especially with the increase in passing at the pro level. Notre Dame’s defense is pretty darn good, and this will certainly be a much tougher test for Blake Bell than Tulsa was. A case can be made for starting him again because he’s so successful running the ball, but I think there’s better choices this week.
I think the upside for the entire Oklahoma offense is just “average” this week, and I’m staying away. Notre Dame is much the same way. Oklahoma’s defense is pretty good too, and they’ve shut some teams down so far this year. Their WR’s could make for decent plays, but I don’t like Rees or any of the running backs this week.
| Oklahoma at Notre Dame Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
| | Nobody |
| | Blake Bell, TJ Jones, Davaris Daniels, Troy Niklas |
| | Oklahoma RB’s, Notre Dame RB’s, Tommy Rees |
LSU at Georgia
- Vegas Odds – Georgia -3 / O/U 62
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen an LSU game with a total this high. This is a testament to the fact that LSU’s defense is a little bit worse than the past few years, and also to the fact that LSU’s offense is MUCH improved over a year ago. Zach Mettenberger looks light years better than he did last year, and their running backs come at you in waves – led by emerging star Jeremy Hill. Odell Beckham is one of the most underrated receivers in the country, too. I am expecting a huge game from him this week.
As for Georgia, you know where their production is going to come from. It’s pretty much Murray, Gurley, and then everyone else. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will lead the ‘Dawgs in receiving this week. I think the total is too high, and I’m probably not as bullish on this game as a lot of other people are.
| LSU at Georgia Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
| | Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Todd Gurley |
| | Zach Mettenberger, Aaron Murray, Arthur Lynch |
| | Georgia WR’s |
Arizona at Washington
- Vegas Odds – Washington -10 / O/U 64
The Pac-12 is full of fantasy goodness this year, and that benefits us because the casual player tends to ignore the west coast games. The conference is full of offense outside of USC and has no interest in learning defense (see: Utah, Oregon State, California, and these two teams, among others). I actually think this total is a touch low, and I expect some fireworks. The ten point spread means there is less worry about guys getting pulled late.
Ka’Deem Carey is back for Arizona and bulldozing opponents like always. He’s a threat to be the top scoring RB every week, especially with Arizona’s decimated WR corps. B.J. Denker is a decent value option at QB this week if you need to go that route. For Washington, their fantasy guys are very consistent, and I love taking them. Keith Price is back to his 2011 form, Bishop Sankey is an every week workhorse, Kasen Williams is the #1 wideout, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is one of the best tight ends in the country. I expect a breakout game from him this week. Fire away.
| Arizona at Washington Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
| | Ka’Deem Carey, Keith Price, Bishop Sankey, Austin Seferian-Jenkins |
| | B.J. Denker, Kasen Williams |
| | Arizona WR’s |
Wisconsin at Ohio State
- Vegas Odds – Ohio State -7 / O/U 54 1/2
All of a sudden there’s a quarterback controversy in Columbus. Kenny Guiton has burst onto the scene and played great in Braxton Miller’s absence, but Urban Meyer has been quick to point out that Miller is 13-0 as his starting quarterback. He’s steadfast that this is Miller’s job. If you believe him, Miller can be found at a great bargain this week on several sites. The quote is out there that he “will probably start” this week. Be very, very careful with this. I think there’s too many good options this week to risk it. You can’t afford a zero score at QB in a week where points will be plentiful.
Jordan Hall has established himself as the Buckeye’s consistent running back this year, and their receivers (Corey Brown and Devin Smith) have both been great with Guiton at the helm. If Miller plays, I knock them down a peg because he tends to look to run more than Guiton does. For the Badgers, their QB Joel Stave is off limits. They run too much to make anyone from the passing game relevant outside of Jared Abbrederis, who is a borderline play this week. However, Melvin Gordon has been fantastic and seems to be wrestling the title of #1A back away from James White. This should be a great ball game.
| Wisconsin at Ohio State Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
| | Jordan Hall, Melvin Gordon |
| | Devin Smith, Corey (Philly) Brown, James White, Jared Abbrederis |
| | Braxton Miller, Kenny Guiton, Jacob Pedersen, Joel Stave |
California at Oregon
- Vegas Odds – Oregon -36 / O/U 84
This game has a monstrous spread for me to be covering, but it’s easily the most fantasy-relevant game of the weekend. If you think Cal can hang in the game long enough to keep both teams’ starters in the game, load up. If you agree with Vegas and think Oregon will win by five scores, be careful. Last year there was a similar scenario in the Arizona/Oregon game… and this happened.
Credit headchopper for reminding me of this game.
In my opinion, Cal can sling the ball just enough to keep this game interesting. (But I thought the same thing about Arizona last year). I wouldn’t load up on Cal players but I can see taking some of their big play receivers. The running game will be scrapped early as the Bears will be playing from behind. I love every Oregon weapon in this game. Mariota is the best fantasy player not named Manziel, both running backs should get their touches, and I expect Huff to make some big plays. Even Lyerla is in play assuming he’s recovered from his illness that kept him out of the last game.
| California at Oregon Traffic Light Plays | |
|---|---|
| | Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, Marcus Mariota, De’Anthony Thomas, Byron Marshall, Josh Huff |
| | Jared Goff, Colt Lyerla |
| | Brandon Bigelow |
Added Green Light Plays for CFB Week 5
- 1) J.W. Walsh – Oklahoma State QB
- 2) James Franklin – Missouri QB
- 3) Kevin Hogan (Sleeper) – Stanford QB
- 4) Duke Johnson – Miami RB
- 5) Akeem Hunt (Sleeper) – Purdue RB
- 6) Jamison Crowder – Duke WR
- 7) Sammy Watkins – Clemson WR
- 8) Josh Stewart – Oklahoma State WR
- 9) Eric Ebron – North Carolina TE
- 10) Xavier Grimble (Sleeper) – USC TE
Good luck in Week 5 everyone!