Daily Fantasy CFB Traffic Light Plays: Week 9
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of my weekly college football plays. Week eight was a MONSTER week for me, and was buoyed by the huge games from Devin Gardner, Jeremy Gallon, Jameis Winston, and Rashad Greene. It was also the best college football week for me this season. I’m on a pretty good hot streak, so hopefully that will translate into good picks for this week too. In addition, I’m writing this directly after a big World Series Game 2 win for the Cardinals, so everything is going just fantastic right now. Conference games are still in full swing, and there’s some pretty good action to break down, so let’s get right down to business!
To make this article different than other daily plays articles, and also different from what Dan will bring to you on Fridays, I decided to do this column in a ìtraffic lightî format. I will dissect the major games of the week by giving you a brief overview of the game and Vegas odds, and then I will put the major players into three categories. They should be self-explanatory, but just to be safe, here they are.
Traffic Light Tiers
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or under-priced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the ìplayabilityî of the player in general. If you have a site-specific question, feel free to shoot me a message on twitter @stlcardinals84 and I will do my best to get back to you.
As a general note, I will try to pick the most competitive games of the week in this column, and I will avoid games with spreads greater than 20 or 25 points as the plays in those games are relatively obvious. Now let’s get to the week seven edition of traffic light plays!
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Vegas Odds: Oklahoma -6 1/2 / O/U 59
Quietly, very very quietly, Texas Tech is 7-0 and in the top ten. They will get their biggest test of the season to date as they travel to Norman this weekend. With all the easy games they have had, their offensive skill players are priced very high on most sites. With this being a true road game with an inexperienced quarterback, I expect some bumps in the road this weekend. I’ll hesitate to use anyone outside of TE Jace Amaro because he is a matchup-proof beast. Be careful with everyone else. The Red Raiders don’t even try to establish the run so you can completely ignore that position for them. As for Oklahoma, the consensus is becoming that Blake Bell can thrive against weak competition but stinks against good competition. I’ll hold off on that until we have a bigger sample size. This will be an important game for him, and I think they’ll give him the green light to run more. If they do, he gets a green light in my book too. The only other player I would consider for the Sooners would be Sterling Shepard as he seems to be Bell’s go-to target. Jalen Saunders could be in play but he’s a little more risky. Their running back situation seems to be muddled these days too, and Bell steals some goal line carries, so avoid that mess.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Jace Amaro, Blake Bell, Sterling Shepard |
| | Davis Webb, Eric Ward, Jalen Saunders |
| | All running backs |
Texas at TCU
Vegas Odds: TCU -2 1/2 / O/U 51
Texas finally seems to be turning a corner defensively. They shut down Blake Bell a couple weeks ago and are fresh off a well-deserved bye week. We already know that TCU’s defense is top-notch, and it’s tough to take players against them. This game will has the feel of a clunker, and I even think the projected total is a bit too high. The only player I am really comfortable rostering is Texas RB Johnathan Gray. He continues to fly under the radar despite great stats, and TCU tends to defend the pass better than the run. Mike Davis would be the only Texas receiver I would target this week. If any of them break a big play, it’s going to be him. For TCU, I am basically avoiding the whole team. Casey Pachall has been cleared to return and should play with Trevone Boykin struggling. I’m not touching either guy. Their running back situation is a committee with Waymon James and B.J. Catalon, and there’s nothing special there. Good luck finding a consistent receiver on the team — you won’t find one. Just pass on the whole Horned Frogs mess this week. I expect a 20-14 type game.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Johnathan Gray |
| | Mike Davis |
| | Case McCoy, Trevone Boykin, Casey Pachall, BJ Catalon, Waymon James, all TCU receivers |
Arizona at Colorado
Vegas Odds: Arizona -13 / O/U 58
When I was trying to decide which games to write up this week, for some reason I knew I was going to include this one. I think this is going to be one heck of a football game, and I think there are quite a few guys that are going to be relevant for fantasy purposes. Let’s start with the Wildcats. Quarterback B.J. Denker has looked light years better the past two weeks, and he is starting to run and throw the ball with confidence. This opens up the whole offense and makes life a lot easier for Ka’Deem Carey. I love both guys this week against a weak Colorado defense, and I expect Arizona to roll up 300 yards rushing in this game. Avoid the receivers as Denker is a run-oriented QB at heart, and Arizona should have lots of success on the ground. For Colorado, there’s some evidence out there to suggest that they can keep this game competitive. True freshman QB Sefo Liufau will be given the authority to throw the ball more this week after getting his feet wet last week, and it never hurts when you have a stud receiver like Paul Richardson. If Arizona decides to bracket Richardson, #2 wideout Nelson Spruce has proven to be a capable asset. New starting RB Michael Adkins scored four touchdowns and ran for 137 yards last week. The Buffaloes have enough weapons to keep this thing interesting.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | B.J. Denker, KaDeem Carey, Paul Richardson |
| | Sefo Liufau, Michael Adkins, Nelson Spruce |
| | Christian Powell, all Arizona receivers |
UCLA at Oregon
Vegas Odds: Oregon -23 / O/U 71 1/2
The chatter has begun. Oregon vs. Baylor. I want to see it. We all want to see it. That game would ooze fantasy points. Guys would score fantasy points at halftime. I know, I’m getting way ahead of myself here.
Back to the task at hand, Oregon still has business to take care of before worrying about a BCS game. This week they get a UCLA team that is banged up to no end on offense. A lot of people will target Hundley this week, but I would suggest using caution. The Bruins have three injured offensive linemen, their starting running back is out, and their receiving corps isn’t lighting the world on fire. Plus they get an Oregon defense that’s actually pretty good. Sure, they give up some points, but they are on the field a ton because their offense always scores so fast. I don’t expect a big offensive day out of a banged up UCLA team. Hundley will be highly owned, especially on DraftStreet, but I’m not going to use him very much this week. For the rest of their offense, I’m not using anyone. Oregon’s offense is also going to be tricky to predict. Marcus Mariota is obviously a stud, and I would also feel comfortable rostering number one wideout Josh Huff. The running back spot is tricky because De’Anthony Thomas should return this week but we don’t know how carries will be divided between him and Byron Marshall. Both will get the yellow light treatment because of it. A blowout could also mean significant work for Thomas Tyner.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Marcus Mariota, Josh Huff, Bralon Addison |
| | Brett Hundley, Shaquelle Evans, Jordan Payton, De’Anthony Thomas, Byron Marshall |
| | Jordon James (injured), Paul Perkins, Thomas Tyner |
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
Vegas Odds: Texas A&M -17 1/2 / O/U 69
From a fantasy perspective, I was stoked when I saw that Austyn Carta-Samuels was going to sit out this week. I’m a big fan of Patton Robinette’s skill set, and he is the type of quarterback that can give the Aggies fits. On the sites where he is still dirt cheap, you HAVE to roster him this weekend. He’s a great running quarterback and can make enough throws to keep a bad Texas A&M defense honest. I think he adds a whole new dimension to their offense, and will open things up all over the field. This improves the outlook for Jerron Seymour, Jordan Matthews, and even Jonathan Krause this week. I like the prospects for all of them in a guaranteed shootout. Seymour has become a real threat in the backfield for Vandy. The usual weapons are in play for Texas A&M. The Manziel to Evans connection should keep on humming as it seems to every week. Their running back situation is a mess, though. They used three guys last week and combined they had fewer carries than Johnny football. Avoid it. Also avoid any receiver not named Evans. They’re too inconsistent. Don’t read anything into the fluke seven catch day from Travis Labhart last week.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Patton Robinette, Jerron Seymour, Jordan Matthews, Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans |
| | Jonathan Krause |
| | Texas A&M RB’s, Travis Labhart |
Stanford at Oregon State
Vegas Odds: Stanford -3 / O/U 57 1/2
I’m willing to bet that Oregon State sees those Vegas Odds and has been playing the no respect card all week. Frankly, I’m not sure what else Brandin Cooks has to do in order for them to get that respect. That being said, there are holes on the defense that Stanford can exploit. I expect the Cardinal to ask Kevin Hogan to do a little bit more this week because of that. He gets the green light, as does matchup-proof running back Tyler Gaffney, who ran all over UCLA last weekend. Their wide receivers are inconsistent because they don’t throw the ball a ton, but Ty Montgomery is always a decent play. As far as Oregon State goes, I’m done trying to tell people not to take Brandin Cooks because of his price. The guy is a freak, an absolute and total freak. It’s a joy to watch him play football on Saturdays. If you want to take him, go for it. Caleb Smith is starting at tight end with Connor Hamlett’s injury. He scored a touchdown last week and fumbled while trying to go for another. He could be a sneaky cheap option this weekend. I keep waiting for Storm Woods to take off this year, but it hasn’t happened yet. It’s probably not going to happen against Stanford, either. It’s probably best to look elsewhere this week.
| Traffic Light | Player(s) |
|---|---|
| | Kevin Hogan, Tyler Gaffney, Brandin Cooks, Caleb Smith |
| | Ty Montgomery, Sean Mannion, Storm Woods |
| | Devon Cajuste, Terron Ward |
Other Green Light plays from games I did not break down include:
1) Jordan Lynch – Northern Illinois QB
2) Bryce Petty – Baylor QB
3) Dylan Thompson (Sleeper) – South Carolina QB
4) Lache Seastrunk – Baylor RB
5) Bishop Sankey – Washington RB
6) Roderick McDowell (Sleeper) – Clemson RB
7) Jeremy Johnson – SMU WR
8) DeVante Parker – Louisville WR
9) TJ Jones (Sleeper) – Notre Dame WR
10) Eric Ebron – North Carolina TE
Good luck in your games!!