Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 1
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
For those that are unfamiliar with this column, two years ago I started using a system which I called “Defenses that Fit the Criteria.” The general premise was to use the Vegas lines to find defenses that should be in good spots to be successful. The criteria were looking for teams that are favored by 3 points or greater, playing at home, with an over/under of 45 or less. The criteria was a little bit arbitrary but at the time I felt that being at home, favored, and having an opponent’s team total of 21 points or less was a very good starting point to start tracking the results.
Over the last two years, I have received a lot of feedback and questions. For example, this team is favored by 10 points with a total of 48 points (opponent team total of 19 points), why would you not want to include it? My answer was simply that it does not fit the criteria. But after further consideration, it should, and I feel now is the time to change/simplify the criteria. Going forward, the criteria will be a defense whose team is at home, favored and opponent’s team total is 21 points or less (instead of favored by 3 or more and total of 45 or less). I will also continue to highlight any other defenses I like in the “Other Defenses to Target” section.
2014-2015 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the 2014 and 2015 season:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.15
Other Defenses to Target: 7.98
All Favorites: 8.58
All Home Teams: 7.41
All Teams: 7.01
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5000 FD, $3900 DK) vs Miami – Seattle is a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 44. Miami’s team total is only 16.75 points. If you are looking to pay up at defense for a cash game staple, the Seahawks are usually not a bad place to look. They ranked second in total defense and first and scoring defense last season. They face a Miami team that finished 26th in total offense and 27th in scoring offense. I think this is all reflected in a very low team total of 16.75 for Miami. So I think Seattle provides a very nice base of points in cash games should they hold Miami to 10-13 points, get a few sacks and maybe a turnover or two. That being said, Seattle is probably not where I would go in tournaments. They ranked only T-17th in sacks and T-18th in takeaways last season. They face a Miami team that was in the top third of the league in terms of limiting giveaways. I think you can bank on 2-3 points from sacks, 2-4 points from turnovers, and 1-4 points from points against, which should give you a nice base of points in cash games. In tournaments, there are a few spots I like better for upside.
Philadelphia Eagles ($4800 FD, $3300 DK) vs Cleveland – Philadelphia is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 41. Cleveland’s team total is 18.75. One of those spots I think we can look for upside is with the Eagles. First let me state that this Eagles defense was not very good last year, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in scoring defense. That being said, I think the addition of Jim Schwartz and the switch to the 4-3 should make this a much improved unit. The Eagles did still rank around middle of the pack in takeaways and in the top 1/3rd of the league in sacks. I think the biggest reason for optimism in Week 1 is their opponent. The Browns ranked 25th in total offense and 30th in scoring offense last season. They also allowed the second most sacks and were T-5th in terms of the most giveaways. I do not think the change at QB to RG3 changes much for the Browns either. I think this game sets up well for the Eagles opportunistic defense. Remember, this was a defense that finished first in fantasy points just two years ago. They are one of my favorite places to look in GPPs, especially at a cheaper price on DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs ($5100 FD, $3600 DK) vs San Diego – Kansas City is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45. San Diego’s team total is 19.25. Another spot I like this week for both cash games and GPPs is the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs had a very solid unit last season ranking seventh in total defense, third in scoring defense, fourth in sacks, and fifth in takeaways. Their opponent this week, the Chargers, ranked 26th in scoring offense and were in the bottom half of the league in sacks allowed and giveaways. Another reason I like the Chiefs this week is looking back to the two matchups between these teams last season. The first matchup the Chiefs held the Chargers to three points scored, had two turnovers, three sacks, and a defensive TD on the way to 20 fantasy points. In the second matchup, the Chiefs held the Chargers again to only three points scored, forcing a turnover, and had five sacks on the way to 14 fantasy points. The Chiefs make one of my favorite GPP plays this week, and even a nice pivot off Seattle in cash games.
Houston Texans ($4900 FD, $3200 DK) vs Chicago – Houston is a 5-point favorite with a total of 44. Chicago’s team total is 19.5. Let me start by saying I think the Texans may end up having the best defense in the NFL this season. Although I guess it’s not much of a stretch to say that when they finished third in total defense and tied for seventh in scoring defense last year. They already have the best defensive player in the NFL in JJ Watt but I think the biggest news is that Jadeveon Clowney finally seems to be healthy. Pairing Clowney with Watt and outside LB’s Whitney Mercilus and John Simon makes them maybe the most feared pass rush in the NFL. They already finished fifth in the NFL in sacks last season and I would not be surprised at all if they are first this season. Their Week 1 opponent is a below average Bears offense that finished 21st in total offense and 23rd in scoring offense last season. Bears QB Jay Cutler has always been someone we felt we could pick on in DFS. Last year, he finally improved his efficiency under Adam Gase. But now Gase is gone, and I would not be surprised if Cutler regresses to his more turnover prone ways. I think Houston makes another fine GPP play, especially at their price on DraftKings. On DraftKings they do not make a bad cash game play either if you need to save $400-700.
Arizona Cardinals ($5000 FD, $3500 DK) vs New England – Arizona is a 7-point favorite with a total of 44. New England’s team total is 18.5. Well we are over 1300 words into this article and I still have another couple teams to write up. Going forward, this article will likely be shorter, but without doing a defense preview column this year, and with the criteria change, I went a little more in depth. I will now move on to maybe the toughest defense to project this week in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals defense itself is great finishing fifth in total defense, T-7th in scoring defense, and second in takeaways last season. The reason I feel they are tough to project is their opponent, the Patriots. All the Patriots numbers get thrown out the window here from last season with Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the suspended Tom Brady. Garoppolo has only thrown 31 passes in NFL regular season games, with most of them coming in 2014. I do not expect the Patriots to scale back their game plan here and I think they stick to their usual short, quick passing game. The Cardinals defense is strong and I think they make another intriguing GPP play this week, but I do not love them. SUNDAY UPDATE: Arizona has gone from a 6-point favorite to 7-point favorite. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 44. New England team total has dropped from 20.75 to 18.5. Arizona defense is looking like an even stronger play.
Baltimore Ravens ($4300 FD, $2700 DK) vs Buffalo – Baltimore is a 3-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Buffalo’s team total is 20.75. I will not spend as much time here as this is definitely my least favorite option that fits the criteria this week. This game seems like a slow, grind it out affair which is why we have a lower projected team total. Overall this Baltimore defense is solid but not spectacular. I think the addition of Eric Weddle should help in the passing game to eliminate some of the big plays they were susceptible to last season. The Bills are not a high volume passing offense. They will likely try to run the ball a lot here and they did a pretty good job of protected the ball last season. At this price point, you could certainly do worse, I just do not love the upside for Baltimore against a run heavy scheme.
Other Defenses to Target
We are almost 1700 words in here and I already wrote up six defenses to target that fit the criteria. I will likely be focusing on the first four or five across my cash games and GPP lineups. If you are looking for an intriguing cheaper option, the one place I may go is Tennessee. The Vikings will probably try to run the ball 30+ times with Peterson here and play defense, but if the Titans can force Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill to throw it, there could be some potential upside there. SUNDAY UPDATE: Shaun Hill is starting. Tennessee remains by favorite cheaper play.
That is all for this week. Feel free to add any thoughts or questions in the comment section and I will try to check in to reply. Enjoy the return of the NFL and Week 1 this Sunday! Happy Grinding!