Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 1
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup.
Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPP’s, often the difference between a top 10 finish and top 100 or much worse finish may come down to your defensive selection. Even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play.
Last week I wrote defensive preview columns for both the NFC and AFC highlighting key offseason additions and losses for every NFL team, the projected impact of those changes, and also my own outlook for each defense this season. I think it is important to be up to date on these offseason changes not only for picking a DFS defense but also for what matchups you can exploit when selected offensive players early in the season.
Last year, I started tracking and highlighting defenses that “fit the criteria.” What is the “criteria” you may ask? To recap, defenses that fit the criteria are all about the Vegas point spread. We are looking for teams that are at home, favored by 3 or more points, with an over/under of 45 points or less. This may seem a little arbitrary, but there is a method to this madness. In general, we are looking for defenses in a good situation (at home) that are projected by Vegas to hold their opponents to 21 points or less. The idea behind this is that if a defense is in a good situation to limit their opponents scoring/stop the opposing offense, they should also be in a good situation to force sacks, turnovers, and have opportunities at the coveted defensive touchdown(s).
2014 Recap
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.81
Other Defenses to Target: 7.43
All Favorites: 8.46
All Home Teams: 7.77
All Teams: 7.18
Overall, I think tracking the defense that fit the criteria was a success in 2014. The defense that fit the criteria finished with an average FD points per game of almost 10 points per game. Out of a total of 52 teams that fit the criteria, 28 of them scored double-digit FD points in 2014. While it may not have produced a lot of the highest scoring defenses on a week to week basis, double-digit points is great for cash games, and certainly won’t hurt you in GPP’s either. Often the difference between a solid fantasy defense and GPP winning fantasy defense is whether they score a touchdown or two, which is very unpredictable. All we can do as DFS players is put ourselves in the best possible situations to capitalize on opportunities for sacks and turnovers that can lead to defensive touchdowns.
In terms of comparing the defense that fit the criteria to the other “control” groups, you can see it outscored all favorites by about 1.35 points per game, all home teams by 2.04 points per game, and all teams by 2.63 points per game. While we are still dealing with a small sample size, I think this exercise is worth following. This season, I will continue to use a similar format, but am certainly open to any other suggestions, ideas, or other things that readers may like to see tracked.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Let me start by saying this is shaping up to be a fairly strange Week 1. We have 8 road favorites in Week 1 out of 15 games on Sunday/Monday. The largest point spread on Sunday/Monday is only 6.5 points. Good luck to everyone trying to make their suicide pool picks this week. It should be very interesting as Week 1 is shaping up to have a lot of close games.
In terms of DFS defenses, it also seems as if the sites priced all the teams fairly close together. There is not a very large gap between the highest priced defenses and lowest priced defenses.
New York Jets ($4400 FD, $2900 DK) vs. Cleveland Browns – Vegas has installed the Jets as three-point favorites in this game with the lowest total on the board at only 39.5 points. As noted in my AFC Defense Preview column, the Jets was one of the most active teams this offseason. They added Leonard Williams to an already very good front seven that finished 5th in the NFL against the run last year and had 45 sacks. Their weakness last season was in the secondary, but they signed one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Darrelle Revis, and also added Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, and Marcus Gilchrist. The secondary is now a strength and the Jets are shaping up to have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. Their Week 1 opponent is Cleveland who finished last season 23rd in the NFL in total offense and 27th in scoring offense. The Browns offense does not look to have improved at all for 2015. Dollar for dollar the Jets are one of the very best cash game and GPP defensive plays this week, as they come at a several hundred dollar discount this week on both sites from the top priced defenses.
Tampa Bay Bucs ($4500 FD, $2800 DK) vs. Tennessee Titans – The Bucs are three-point favorites in this game with a total of 42. Let me start by saying I do not think the Bucs defense is going to be very good overall this season, especially due to a weak secondary. But, as DFS players, we only need them to be good for one week. The reason to target the Bucs this week is simple; they face a rookie QB in Marcus Mariota, starting his first NFL game on the road. By all reports, Mariota has looked very good in camp and he had a strong preseason. But again, I’ll take my chances against a rookie QB starting his first NFL game on the road. The Titans do not have much of a running game to take some pressure off of Mariota, and they do not really have a great group of WR’s/TE’s for him to throw to either. I think the Bucs make one of the better contrarian GPP plays in Week 1. Their price is not necessarily cheap, so I do not expect them to be highly owned. They certainly present downside as Mariota has a lot of talent, but I also think they present a lot of upside this week in his first NFL start.
Other Defense to Target
Miami Dolphins ($4700 FD, $3000 DK) at Washington Redskins – Overall, I do not think the Dolphins’ defense will be quite as good as the Jets, but they were another team that made a big signing this offseason in Ndamukong Suh. Suh is one of the best defensive linemen in football and should make an immediate impact. The main reason the Dolphins make the defenses to target this week is their opponent, the Washington Redskins. The Redskins continue to be a bit of a mess of a franchise and I do not think Kirk Cousins is the answer to their QB problems. He owns an 18 to 19 career TD to INT ratio, with only a 59% completion percentage, and over the last four starts he made last season, he had a five-turnover game and a three-turnover game. He also was very shaky in his last preseason start. I think Miami is set up nicely here with the upside for a big defensive fantasy output.