Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 10
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
So how about that election? I’m just kidding. On the bright side, we have DFS. This weekend we have EPL Soccer on Saturday and UFC 205 on Saturday night. You will see me in GPPs for both as I think they are fun sports for DFS. Give them a shot if you have not done so already. College Basketball is about to start (RIP CBB DFS) which is always exciting. And we got Week 10 of the NFL. Despite statistics that show lower viewership, there is no better feeling that sitting back on a Sunday to watch your favorite team, or season long fantasy team, or DFS team, or multiple DFS teams. It’s just what we like to do as Americans.
Week 9 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 9 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.83
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 10.80
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 7.20
Other Defenses to Target: 8.09
All Favorites: 8.22
All Home Teams: 7.29
All Teams: 6.87
Week 9 was a pretty good week for this column. The Chiefs as a “Top Play” may not have produced the GPP ceiling we were looking for, but they again reach double digit fantasy points. The Dolphins were listed as a good GPP play considering the matchup, and they came through with 13 fantasy points. Finally, the “Other Defense to Target,” Carolina, produced a double digit effort as well.
The Seahawks, Vikings, and Giants also fit the criteria and only produced 7, 3, and 6 fantasy points, respectively. But considering the matchups, and the trepidation I mentioned in the column last week, these results did not surprise me. In hindsight, I should have bumped the Seahawks down to a “Secondary Play” as well. Remember, the “Defense that Fit the Criteria” is used as a guide that is open to change/suggestions, and I try to add my own additional thoughts on each picks for the week, and usually let it be known if I am not very high on a certain pick that fits the criteria.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less
Top Plays
Arizona Cardinals ($5200 FD, $3700 DK)
Opponent: San Francisco at Home
Spread: -13.5
Team Total: 17.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.88 (10th highest)
A Cardinals defense that has been in this article often in the past year or two has not found their way into this column much this season. But when we look at the numbers, they currently rank first in total defense and tied for fourth in scoring defense. They also rank top ten in the NFL in sacks and takeaways. This alone is enough to make the Cardinals a top play this week, but then we they are favored by almost two touchdowns against the 49ers who ranked in the bottom ten in both total offense and scoring offense. The 49ers are also tied for third in the NFL in giveaways. They have not been as generous as some teams to opposing defenses but they have not been stingy either, giving up just under eight fantasy points per game, which ranks tenth highest in the NFL. The Cardinals are my top play this week for both cash games and GPPs if you can fit them in.
EDIT TO ADD: The Jets no longer fit the criteria as the Rams are favored.
Secondary Options
Carolina Panthers ($5000 FD, $3200 DK)
Opponent: Kansas City at Home
Spread: -3
Team Total: 20.50
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 5.13 (26th highest)
The Panthers defense has come back to life since their Week 7 bye. Over their last two weeks, they have put up 30 fantasy points. This has been helped by racking up 12 sacks in those two games. If the Panthers have a weak spot on defense, it is their pass defense. But Kansas City is a middle of the pack offensive team overall but in the bottom third of the league in pass offense. Kansas City does not turn it over a lot, but the way the Panthers defense is playing right now, I think they are worth a shot in GPP’s. This is especially true at their price on DraftKings. The price on FanDuel is a little tougher as I would likely just pay up another $200 for Arizona.
Washington Redskins ($4400 FD, $3000 DK)
Opponent: Minnesota at Home
Spread: -2.5
Team Total: 19.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 6.63 (17th highest)
The Redskins defense is in the bottom half of the league in both total defense and scoring defense. But prior to their bye, they did rack up 14 sacks in their previous four games. Their opponent this week, the Minnesota Vikings, have offensive line issues. They have allowed seven sacks in their last two games. The Vikings offense ranks last in the NFL in total offense and are bottom ten in scoring offense. Even though they do not turn it over a lot, giving up under seven fantasy points per game to opponent defenses, I think this is a good spot for Washington where they should have a nice floor due to the handful of sacks they should get in this game. If they can force a turnover or two, their upside increases. I think they make a contrarian GPP play this week.
EDIT TO ADD: Patriots also no longer fit the criteria as the team total for Seattle is over 21 points now.
Other Defense to Target
St. Louis Rams ($4600 FD, $2900 DK)
Opponent: New York Jets on the Road
Fantasy Points Allowed: 11.78 (highest in NFL)
This article would not be complete without suggesting the defense that faces the New York Jets, who are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses in the NFL. This matchup (the Jets were already recommended above) actually pits the two teams that allow the most fantasy points to opposing defenses against each other. I would not say either of these defenses is even above average, but both of these offenses have struggled and turn the ball over a lot. The Jets lead the NFL in giveaways with 19 so far this season. As we saw last week with Miami, those turnovers give the opposing defense a lot of upside due to the chances to return one of them for a touchdown. I like this Rams as a GPP play this week, especially at their price on DraftKings.