Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 10
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 9
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-9 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 8.57 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.00 FD Points
All Favorites- 7.62 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.43 FD Points
All Teams- 6.65 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 9- Miami (22 FD pts), Houston (17 FD pts), St. Louis (16 FD pts)
Week 9 was a little bit of a different week for the defenses that fit the criteria. All 5 picks scored at least 7 FD points this week, but only Seattle broke double digits. Therefore, none of the teams hurt you, but they failed to produce any of the top 3 scores of the week that can lead to big GPP wins. That being said, I still saw a lot of SF, Cleveland, and Cincy in the top 10 of GPP’s this past week.
A few statistics on defenses that fit the criteria through 7 weeks tracking (started in Week 3):
Double Digit Points- 11 for 23 (47.8%)
8 FD Points or More- 15 for 23 (65.2%)
7 FD Points or More- 17 for 23 (73.9%)
5 FD Points or Less- 6 for 23 (26.1%)
Defense and ST TD’s- 3 for 23 (13%)
In terms of cash games, the defense that fits the criteria has been very solid by producing at least 7 FD points 73.9% of the time. For GPP’s, it has produced double digit points 47.8% of the time. The one thing that has been missing is the coveted defensive/special teams TD’s. As shown above, only 3 teams that fit the criteria (out of 23) have produced touchdowns (Lions in Week 5, Chiefs in Week 8, and Seahawks in Week 9). It just goes to show that defense and special team touchdowns can still be pretty random. You can only try to put yourself in the best situations to possibly get them.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle ($5400 FD, $3000 DK) vs New York Giants- Seattle is a nine point favorite with a total of 44.5. Despite giving up 24 points to the Raiders, the Seahawks did force 3 turnovers and turn one in to a TD this past week. The Giants offense looked like a mess on Monday night, and I don’t think traveling to Seattle is going to help them suddenly turn things around. Eli Manning has always been prone to some big turnover games. Seattle comes at a little bit of a discount on DK this week.
Arizona ($5100 FD, $3300 DK) vs St. Louis- Arizona is a seven point favorite with a total of 43. Arizona is top five in the NFL in both points allowed per game and turnovers forced. St. Louis is bottom five in the NFL in total offense and points scored per game. The Rams had less than 200 total yards against SF this past week while giving up eight sacks. I do not expect them to have much success against Arizona this week.
Detroit ($5000 FD, $2900 DK) vs Miami- Detroit is a three point favorite with a total of 43.5. By most measures, Detroit has been the best defense in the NFL this year. They lead the league in total defense and are allowing a NFL low 15.8 points per game. I think some people may be scared away this week as they face a very hot Miami offense. But Miami has faced a pretty favorable schedule over the last few weeks. I think this Detroit defense is for real and can slow down Miami on Sunday.
Baltimore ($5300 FD, $3200 DK) vs Tennessee- Baltimore is a 10 point favorite with a total of 44. Baltimore has been a pretty good defense this year giving up the 4th least points per game in the NFL. They face a Tennessee offense that is 6th worst in the NFL in total offense and tied for 3rd worst in points per game. Mettenberger looked pretty good in his first NFL start, but he is still a rookie, and Baltimore is a very tough place to play.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Dallas ($5200 FD, $3300 DK) vs. Jacksonville- I really couldn’t decide whether I wanted to put Dallas or Denver here. But Dallas is $100 cheaper on FD and they face everyone’s favorite offense to target, Jacksonville, this week in London. Jacksonville has been better the last two weeks, but they are still 3rd to last in total offense and last in points per game. They have the 2nd most turnovers in the NFL and have given up the most sacks. One thing to note, if Tony Romo does not start this week (I think he does); I probably would switch to Denver over Dallas in this spot.