Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 11
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week.
Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 10
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-10 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 9.26 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.31 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.23 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.93 FD Points
All Teams- 6.90 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 9- Philadelphia (31 FD pts), Arizona (25 FD pts), Green Bay (20 FD pts)
Week 10 was a pretty high scoring week overall for defenses, mainly due to the huge scores produced above by the top scoring D/ST of the week. If you didn’t have any of those three D/ST in GPPs, your chances probably weren’t too good for real high cashes in GPP’s. Those teams produced a total of five D/ST touchdowns, which is often the key to the high scoring defensive weeks.
The defense that fits the criteria nailed one of the top scoring defenses of the week in Arizona. Arizona produced 25 FD points this past week thanks to two defensive TDs. Until six minutes to go in the game, the Arizona defense was sitting on a very mediocre six FD points. Then what is usually garbage time for the offense turned in to garbage time for the defense. Arizona forced two turnovers, three sacks, and two defensive TD’s in those last six minutes, propelling them to one of the best defensive fantasy days. Sometimes it’s better to be a little lucky than good.
The other defenses that fit the criteria were Seattle, Detroit, and Baltimore. They put up solid outputs of 7 FD pts, 8 FD pts, and 13 FD pts, respectively. The defense that fits the criteria continues to produce solid cash game options that won’t hurt you, but many not always propel you to the top of GPPs.
My other defense to target was Dallas. Dallas put up a solid 11 FD points and continued the trend of defenses producing solid points when facing the Jaguars. Dallas forced three turnovers and four sacks, but they were unable to convert them in to any TD’s. Dallas also gave up a late garbage time TD and two-point conversion that decreased their output from 14 FD pts to 11 FD pts.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
San Diego ($5300 FD, $3200 DK) vs Oakland- San Diego is a 10-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Let me start by saying I think this is a pretty tough week for defenses overall, which is evidenced by only 2 defenses that fit the criteria this week. San Diego is a pure matchup play going against an Oakland offense that is last in the NFL in total offense and 3rd to last in points scored per game. Oakland has also given up 19 turnovers, which is tied for 3rd worst in the NFL. Without Jacksonville to pick on this week, this presents one of the better matchup plays of the week.
Cleveland ($5200 FD, $3300 DK) vs Houston- Cleveland is a three-point favorite with a total of 42. Cleveland has quietly been an above average defense this year, giving up only 19.1 points per game, good for 6th best in the NFL. They also have been pretty good at forcing turnovers with 17, tied for 7th best in the NFL. The matchup with Houston this week looks like a solid one mainly because Ryan Mallett will be making his first NFL start. Mallett has 9 NFL attempts in his 3+ year NFL career. He has always had some accuracy issues. I expect Houston be conservative and pound Arian Foster, but I still think Cleveland will be given some chances to force Mallett in to turnovers.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Denver ($5200 FD $3000 DK)- This may be the best matchup play of the week and I think Denver is probably the defense many people will gravitate to in their cash games. Their price on both sites is pretty reasonable. This week they face a Rams team that is making another QB change and switching back to Shaun Hill. The Rams are 3rd worst in the NFL in total offense and 5th worst in points per game. The Rams have given up 30 sacks this year and have 17 turnovers. I think Denver will be very heavily owned in all formats this week. They should grab a quick lead and force Shaun Hill to throw a lot, which should lead to turnovers and defensive TD opportunities.
Minnesota ($4900 FD, $3000 DK)- If you are looking for some salary relief on FD this week (or a contrarian option to Denver on DK), look no further than the Vikings this week. As mentioned above, this isn’t a great week for defensive matchups in my opinion. I wouldn’t blame anyone for just completely punting the position this week. But if you are looking for some salary relief but also a little more upside, I like Minnesota this week. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense are a mess right now. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed defenses to score 10, 13, and 20 FD points. Over that same span they have given up eight turnovers, 10 sacks, and two defensive TD’s. I think Minnesota provides nice upside this week and I do not think they will be very heavily owned.