Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 12
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup.
Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over.
BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So, picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 11
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-11 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 9.07 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 6.80 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.24 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.89 FD Points
All Teams- 6.95 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 11- Green Bay (30 FD pts), Tampa Bay (22 FD pts), San Francisco (16 FD pts)
The defensive that fit the criteria had a pretty mediocre/below average week in Week 11. San Diego did produce a solid 11 FD points on the week mainly due to holding the Raiders to only 6 points scored. San Diego surprisingly failed to create many turnovers or sacks though. The Browns defense looked to be in a good spot with Ryan Mallett making his first start, and then when the news broke that Arian Foster would not play, I really like Cleveland in Week 11. But they failed to produce. The Browns couldn’t stop Alfred Blue, and Ryan Mallett performed very efficiently.
The biggest surprise of the week not just in terms of fantasy production, but also in the game score, was the Denver Broncos. No one thought Denver would lose to St. Louis as big favorites. I thought the Denver defense was also in a very good spot to produce. But the whole Denver team played flat, and they produced a very below average 3 FD points. Finally, the Vikings were another team that I thought could be in a good position to produce facing a struggling Bears offense and the turnover prone Jay Cutler. But the Bears offense seemed to find some of their form again in this game. That being said, Cutler did still throw 2 interceptions, but the Vikings were unable to convert either of them in to a defensive score.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Editor’s Note: The Bills/Jets game has been moved to Monday and will be played in Detroit.
Buffalo ($5200 FD, $3300 DK) vs New York Jets- Buffalo is a 4-point favorite with a very low total of 39. The Bills are probably my favorite defense this week. They have been very solid at 6th in total defense and 8th in points allowed. They are 3rd in the NFL in takeaways with 21. They lead the NFL in sacks with 39. They face a Jets offense that is 7th worst in total offense and 4th worst in points scored per game. The Jets have 18 turnovers on the year and have given up 29 sacks. Fire up the Bills this week in both cash games and GPP’s as Michael Vick has always been prone to making mistakes.
San Francisco ($5300 FD, $3100 DK) vs Washington- San Francisco is a 9-point favorite with a total of 44. The Redskins offense has really struggled over the last couple weeks since RG3 returned. In their last 2 games with RG3 back, they have turned the ball over 4 times while allowing 11 sacks. The Niners defense looked even stronger this past week with the return of Aldon Smith. He helps their pass rush tremendously and should be able to apply pressure on RG3 this week. The Niners have a very nice price on DK this week.
Seattle ($5000 FD, $3200 DK) vs Arizona- Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 42. This Seattle defense has been tough to pick this year as they have not been the same dominant defense they were last year. That being said, they are still 3rd in the NFL in total defense. Arizona on the other hand is a very good football team overall, but I do think they’ve been a little lucky at times. Their offense is still in the bottom half of the NFL. Drew Stanton is still a journeyman QB. I think Seattle makes a nice contrarian option from the two teams listed above. Their price is a little cheaper on FD.
San Diego ($5100 FD, $2900 DK) vs St. Louis- San Diego is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. San Diego makes this list again with another strong matchup. The Rams are 4th worst in total offense and 6th worst in points per game. The Chargers defense is 9th in total defense and 6th in points allowed per game. I do not think the Chargers have as much upside as some other teams this week, but they look like a solid option, especially at under $3k on DK if you need to save a little on defense.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Philadelphia ($5100 FD, $3400 DK) vs Tennessee- The Eagles defense has not been that strong overall this year as they are in the bottom half of the league in both total defense and points allowed per game. But, they lead all defenses this year in fantasy points per game, which is all we really care about (well except me because I’m an Eagles fan). The Eagles defense has been very opportunistic this year. In 10 games, they have a ridiculous 2 fumble return TD’s, 2 interception return TD’s, 2 punt return TD’s, 2 blocked punt return TD’s (only applicable on DK), and 1 kickoff return TD. They have been somewhat boom or bust, but when they boom, it seems like the defensive and special team TD’s come in bunches. I think they make a nice GPP play against a Titans offense that is 2nd worst in total offense and 3rd worst in points per game.