Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 13
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPP’s, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPP’s, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 12 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 12:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.41
Other Defenses to Target: 7.74
All Favorites: 8.35
All Home Teams: 7.40
All Teams: 6.96
Week 12 Top Scoring Defenses: Cincinnati Bengals (17 pts), Baltimore Ravens (14 pts), Minnesota Vikings (12 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had another up and down week. The highlight of Week 12 was the Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Bengals were the top scoring defense of the week holding the Rams to seven points scored, forcing three turnovers, getting one sack, and turned one of the turnovers into a touchdown for a total of 17 fantasy points. The Jets did about what I expected, but their point total was hurt a little late because they were up big and the Dolphins were able to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against soft coverage. The Jets did force two turnovers and got three sacks and put up a solid eight fantasy points. The one disappointment was the Chiefs defense. Coming off a string of strong performances, the Bills were able to move the ball better than I expected. The Chiefs did forced two turnovers, but ended with a mediocre five fantasy points.
The other defense to target was the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were also a solid, safe option, putting up eight fantasy points. The 49ers moved the ball a little better than I expected as well, but they managed only 13 points scored. The Cardinals forced two turnovers and recorded two sacks. The 49ers continue to provide a solid floor for fantasy defenses.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Let me start by saying this is the strangest week I can remember since I started doing this column. All four of the teams that “fit the criteria” this week are cheaper options that most people wouldn’t mention in their top-five defenses of the week. Therefore, I will likely recommend all four as good GPP options but maybe a little risky for cash games.
Chicago Bears ($4400 FD, $2600 DK) vs San Francisco – The Bears are 7-point favorites with a total of 43. The Bears get the matchup that we have been picking on all year in the 49ers. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense. The Bears defense has been fairly mediocre ranking in the middle of the pack in both total defense and scoring defense. For this reason, the Bears are risky, but they make a fine GPP play based on the matchup. The 49ers have scored 3, 6, 17, 13, and 13 points over the last five weeks, and I don’t expect that trend to end this week.
Washington Redskins ($4400 FD, $2300 DK) vs Dallas – The Redskins are 4-point favorites with a total of 42. The Redskins present another situation where they are an average/mediocre defense facing a bad offense. The Cowboys again have to go back to Matt Cassel at QB who threw five interceptions in his four starts, and the Cowboys only averaged 16.3 points scored. The Redskins are coming off a strong week of forcing Eli Manning into three interceptions, and the Redskins defense now has at least two turnovers in three of their last four games. The Cowboys have been very friendly to defenses this year and I think the Redskins make a high upside GPP play this week. At their price on DK, I don’t hate them in cash games either.
Buffalo Bills ($4500 FD, $2600 DK) vs Houston – The Bills are 3-point favorites with a total of 41.5. The Bills defense barely makes the cutoff this week as three-point favorites. The Texans are projected to score 20 points here and I think this should be a good matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls. The Bills defense has been somewhat of a disappointment this year as they were drafted as a top-three defense in many season long leagues, yet they’ve been middle of the pack in terms of total defense and scoring defense. Houston’s offense has been mediocre to below average as well; I just don’t know how much I trust the Bills offense to win the field position battle. For me, the Bills are a contrarian GPP play this week.
Miami Dolphins ($4500 FD, $2300 DK) vs Baltimore – The Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites with a total of 43.5. Continuing the trend of the week, we have another below average defense in a good matchup. The Dolphins defense has been really bad recently, surrendering 30 points scored per game since Week 7. The saving grace this week is that they face a Ravens team led by Matt Schaub at QB. Throughout his career, Matt Schaub has been a walking pick six. Last week against the Browns, he did not disappoint. He turned the ball over twice, and one of them was returned for a touchdown. Miami is risky due to the talent on their defense and their recent performance, but facing Schaub puts them in play for GPP’s.
Other Defense to Target
New England Patriots ($4800 FD, $3400 DK) vs Philadelphia – I was prepared to write up the Arizona Cardinals in this spot (and I think they make a great play against the Rams), but then I noticed the price disparity between them and the Patriots. The Patriots come in at $500-600 cheaper than Arizona on both sites, and for that reason, I like them slightly better this week. The Patriots defense is facing an Eagles offense this week that is struggling, as they have only scored 20 or more points once since Week 6. Whether Sanchez or Bradford have been at QB, they’ve both been very inconsistent. The Patriots are strong against the run and if they can force the Eagles to pass, they should be able to capitalize on an Eagles offense that has thrown 14 interceptions in 11 games, which is second-worst in the NFL. The Patriots make a good cash or GPP play this week.