Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 13
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only six points. I finished 4th by five points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 12
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-11 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 9.67 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.44 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.40 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.98 FD Points
All Teams- 7.04 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 12- Buffalo (18 FD pts), Philly (17 FD pts), Bears (17 FD pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had its best week so far with all four picks reaching at least 11 FD pts. The Bills were probably my favorite defense of the week, and they did not disappoint. They completely shut the Jets down and put up 18 FD points, good for the top scoring defense of the week. On DK, they were even better, putting up 24 DK points. Seattle, San Diego, and San Francisco all lived up their matchups by producing 14, 13, and 11 FD points respectively.
My other defense to target was the Philadelphia Eagles who were also very strong. As I mentioned last week, the Eagles have been very opportunistic this year despite not having that strong of a defense overall. Their special teams have been very strong as well and they led off the game with a kickoff return TD. They added three turnovers and five sacks to finish with a very strong 17 FD points, trailing only the Bills for the top score of the week.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
St. Louis ($5200 FD, $3200 DK) vs Oakland – St Louis is a 7-point favorite with a total of 43. Again this column goes back to picking against the Raiders, who have been one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They are last in total offense and second to last in points per game. The Raiders have turned the ball over 21 times so far this year. The Rams, despite having a pretty bad offense of their own, have been pretty solid the last few weeks defensively. They have produced 10 and 15 FD points over the last two weeks, and one of those games was against Peyton Manning.
Houston ($5100 FD, $3100 DK) vs Tennessee- Houston is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Tennessee is another below average offense, coming in at fifth worst in total offense and fourth worst in points per game. They’ve turned the ball over 17 times while giving up 30 sacks. The last three weeks they’ve given up an average of 13 FD points. The Houston defense has been a “bend but don’t break” type defense this year. They give up some yards but not a ton of points. A lot of this is due to their league leading 24 takeaways. I think J.J. Watt may be due for another defensive TD this week.
Turkey Day Special
Detroit ($5200 FD, $3400 DK) vs Chicago- On Turkey Day, many people may gravitate to the Seahawks or Niners defenses. That game is likely to be a grind it out, defensive struggle. That being said, neither the Niners nor Seahawks turn the ball over very much. In terms of opportunity, I like Detroit the best. They face a Bears team that has turned the ball over 21 times this season, 5th worst in the NFL. Overall, the Detroit defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season. They are third in total defense and first in points allowed per game. On Turkey Day, I’ll be using the Lions on most of my teams.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Miami ($4900 FD, $3200 DK) at New York Jets- Whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith starts, this Jets offense is awful right now. The Bills just dominated them in every facet of the game on Monday night. They are currently fourth worst in total offense and third worst in points scored per game. But to me, they are the worst offense in the NFL right now. The Dolphins defense is currently fifth in total defense and 8th in points allowed per game. They are tied for sixth in the NFL in takeaways with 21 this season. For the price, which is depressed, especially on FD, they are my favorite play this week for cash games and GPP’s.
Minnesota ($4500 FD, $2900 DK) – My last pick of the week is a cost savings pick if you want an option even cheaper than Miami this week. Minnesota faces a Carolina offense that is in the bottom third of the league in both total offense and points scored per game. Carolina is in the top third of the league in giveaways and sacks allowed. Minnesota’s defense has been pretty good in the right matchups this year, and I think Carolina may present one of those matchups this week.