Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 14
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 14
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-11 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 10.06 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.83 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.49 FD Points
All Home Teams- 8.03 FD Points
All Teams- 7.05 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 13- St Louis (32 FD pts), Jacksonville (22 FD pts), Minnesota (14 FD pts)
The defensive that fit the criteria had another very strong week, led by 32 FD points from the St. Louis Rams defense. As mentioned last week, the Raiders have a bad offense. Well the Rams were able to shut them out, get 6 sacks, create 5 turnovers, and turn one of them into a defensive TD. This was the defense that won GPP’s last week. The Texans weren’t near as good but they put up a very solid 11 FD points this past week. The Texans were able to get 4 turnovers in this game but were unable to convert any of them into a defensive score. The defense that fits the criteria has now broken the 10 FD point average for the year.
My other picks for the week weren’t too bad either, although I expected more from Miami. Early in the game, the Jets were able to just run the ball at will. When Miami finally tightened up and forced them to pass, their defense was able to dominate. Their upside was limited because Geno Smith only threw 13 passes all night. Minnesota put up the 3rd best score of the week with 14 FD points, and for those of us playing on DK, they put up a whopping 26 DK points. The difference was obviously the 2 punt block TD’s that FD doesn’t count. Luckily for all of us, they are changing this rule next year, and it really didn’t make much sense to begin with.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Detroit ($5300 FD, $3400 DK) vs Tampa Bay – Detroit is a 9-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Tampa offense has been below average this year, ranking in the bottom half of the league in total offense and 5th worst in points scored per game. They also are tied for 3rd worst in the league in giveaways. The Lions defense is currently 2nd in total defense and are allowing a league best 17.3 points per game. This is another situation of good defense facing a bad offense, and they are not one of the highest priced teams on either site this week.
Minnesota ($5000 FD, $3400 DK) vs New York Jets – Minnesota is a 6-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Miami was unable to produce a big score last week against the Jets, but this is still a bad Jets offense. They are 4th worst in total offense and 3rd worst in point scored per game. They also have given up 38 sacks and have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Minnesota continues to be a defense that produces in the right matchups. Last week they put up 14 FD points (26 DK points) against Carolina, and this Jets offense has been worse than Carolina.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
San Francisco ($5600 FD, $3600 DK) at Oakland – It is hard to not to continue to pick against the Raiders, who have fallen below the Jaguars as the league’s worst offense, and also the best team to target defenses against. The Rams just put up a whopping 32 FD points against the Raiders. The Raiders are last in total offense, last in points scored per game, and 2nd worst in turnovers. The Niners again have a top 5-10 defense this year. They are one of the highest priced defenses on both sites this week, but I think they will pay off. They should be heavily owned in cash games as well.
Houston ($5300 FD, $3700 DK) at Jacksonville – Jacksonville’s offense has improved a little bit since Blake Bortles took over, but they are still one of the worst in the NFL. They rank only ahead of the Raiders in total offense and points scored per game. They also lead the NFL pretty easily in sacks allowed, while ranking 4th worst in giveaways. The Texans defense currently leads the NFL in takeaways, and this looks like a good spot to add to that total. JJ Watt only scored an offensive TD last week, so he might be due for a defensive TD this week. Houston comes at a discount from some of the top teams on FD this week.