Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 15
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 14
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-14 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 10.22 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.60 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.38 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.73 FD Points
All Teams- 7.05 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 14- St Louis (27 FD pts), NY Giants (24 FD pts), Cleveland (17 FD pts)
The defensive that fit the criteria had another strong week with both of the picks (Detroit and Minnesota) scoring 13 FD points. The defense that fits the criteria has been extremely solid for cash games this season, averaging 10.22 FD points. It hasn’t necessarily produced a ton of the highest scoring defenses of the week though. As mentioned before, defense can be somewhat random at times because it largely driven by defensive and special teams TD’s, which are very difficult to predict.
My other picks had one solid output in Houston scoring 10 FD points and one complete miss in San Francisco, who were considered one of the top defensive plays of the week. It just seems like this San Francisco team has quit on its coach, and I have a feeling this past week’s awful loss will ensure that Harbaugh won’t be back next year, although that looked likely anyways. The Niners look like a team to avoid for all fantasy purposes these last 3 weeks.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle ($5500 FD, $3500 DK) vs San Francisco- Seattle is a 10-point favorite with a total of 38. As I mentioned above, this San Francisco team seems to have quit on its coach. They allowed the Raiders defense to put up 13 FD points against this last week. Seattle on the other hand is starting to look similar to the defense that was by far the best defense in the league last year. They held a very good Eagles offense to under 200 yards last week. I’m not going to add any stats in here, because Seattle is just a good play. If you are paying up for a defense, they seem like one of the top options this week.
Baltimore ($5300 FD, $3400 DK) vs Jacksonville- Baltimore is a 14-point favorite with a total of 45. Jacksonville’s offense has slightly improved under Bortles, but they continue to be 2nd to last in total offense and last in points scored per game. They are in the bottom 3rd of the league in giveaways and worst in sacks allowed. Baltimore’s defense has been pretty mediocre this year, as they are strong against the run but weak against the pass. I could see Jacksonville scoring 14-17 points in this game, but I think Baltimore should have some opportunities to create turnovers as well.
Detroit ($5400 FD, $3600 DK) vs Minnesota- Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Detroit’s defense continues to lead the league in points allowed per game and they are 2nd in total defense. Minnesota’s offense has improved under Bridgewater, but they still rank 5th worst in total offense and are 8th worst in points scored per game. Detroit is probably my 3rd favorite of the team’s listed so far, but they make a nice contrarian option from Seattle and Baltimore. They should be low owned in GPP’s.
Kansas City ($4900 FD, $3300 DK) vs Oakland- Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 41.5. Kansas City looks like the best cost savings option on FD this week. They face an Oakland offense that is last in total offense and 2nd to last in points scored per game. The Raiders are also tied for 3rd worst in the NFL with 26 giveaways. The Chiefs defense has been pretty solid this year ranking 8th in total defense and are tied for 4th in points allowed per game. The last time these teams played, the Raiders did shock the Chiefs with a 24-20 win. But this time I expect the Chiefs to get revenge at home.
Carolina ($4800 FD, $2600 DK) vs Tampa- Carolina is a 3-point favorite with a total of 41. The final defense that fits the criteria this week looks like the best cost savings option this week on DK, but are also a cheap option along with KC on FD. Tampa Bay is another offense that has struggled this week, ranking 4th worst in total offense and 5th worst in points scored per game. This Carolina defense has been pretty mediocre this year, but they did have a strong game last week against the Saints. They are mainly a matchup play and cost savings option this week on both sites.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
The defense that fits the criteria has produced 5 strong picks this week that range from the top priced options to also some cheaper priced options. Seattle, Baltimore, and Detroit are probably my three favorite picks of the week if you are paying up for a defense. KC and Carolina both look like solid options if you are looking for some cost savings this week. I do not want to force any other picks in this space if the “criteria” seems to have my thoughts covered. If you want an additional pick for this week, plug St. Louis in as your defense in Thursday night contests, although I suspect many others may do that as well. They would also fit the criteria if this column included Thursday games.