Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 16
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 15
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-15 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 10.45 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.60 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.51 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.83 FD Points
All Teams- 7.12 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 15- Patriots (18 FD pts), Bills (17 FD pts), Bengals (17 FD pts)
The defensive that fit the criteria had another very strong week. All five teams that met the criteria put up at least nine FD points, with four of them reaching double digits. Baltimore and Kansas City led the way with 16 FD points each. Baltimore scored even higher on DK with 22 points due to the blocked punt return TD. Again, the defense that fit the criteria did not have any of the top scores of the week, but they were all right in that next grouping of defenses, and would have been very strong for both cash games and GPP’s.
For the year, the defense that fits the criteria has now produced double digit points on 26 out of 42 picks, and is averaging a very strong 10.45 FD points on the year. This has been a very fun experiment this year with the criteria, but ultimately I would say it’s been a success. It may not have produced a lot of the biggest defensive scores of the year, but it has consistently churned out solid options that have been strong for cash games and would certainly not hurt you in GPP’s either.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
St. Louis ($5300 FD, $3600 DK) vs New York Giants- St Louis is a five point favorite with a total of 43.5. Let me start by saying that this is the first week I can remember in a long time where I feel some of the best defensive options are on the road. That being said, the Rams are probably the best option that fit the criteria this week. Despite having a very weak offense, their defense still ranks in the top 12 in both total defense and points allowed per game. The Giants offense has been mediocre overall, and they’ve given the ball away 27 times, which is 5th worst in the NFL.
Carolina ($4900 FD, $3000 DK) vs Cleveland- Carolina is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 39.5. Carolina finds their way on this list again this week with another matchup play. I’m not one to make a determination on a player after his 1st NFL start, but Johnny Manziel may have put up one of the worst performances I’ve seen on Sunday. I really thought he would at least make 2-3 big plays with his legs, but it never happened. I expect him to struggle again this week against a Carolina defense that has been pretty strong the last couple weeks.
Miami ($4800 FD, $2800 DK) vs Minnesota- Miami is a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 42. Miami looks like a solid cost savings option on both sites this week. The odds makers have Minnesota pegged to score only about 17-18 points this week. On the season, Miami ranks 7th in total defense while Minnesota ranks 5th worst in total offense. Miami has also been pretty strong at taking the ball away with 23 takeaways on the season.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Seattle ($5500 FD, $3700 DK) at Arizona- The Seahawks defense looks like the slam dunk best option of the week if you are paying up for a defense in both cash games and GPP’s. Over the last few weeks, Seattle’s defense has looked like the same defense that was the best in the NFL last season by a wide margin. This week they face an Arizona team that is down to its 3rd starting QB in Ryan Lindley. In his career, Lindley has ZERO TD passes and 7 interceptions. Arizona may go to Logan Thomas at times in this game as well. Either way, I think this one could get ugly for Arizona.
Buffalo ($5100 FD, $3500 DK) at Oakland- The next best option (maybe best when considering price) in my opinion this week is Buffalo. Buffalo is coming off a game where they looked very good against a strong offense in the Packers. Buffalo is top 5 in both total defense and points allowed per game, and they rank 2nd in takeaways. The Raiders rank last in total offense and 2nd to last in points scored per game. They are 5th worst in giveaways. Everything lines up for a very strong defensive output from Buffalo this week, and they come at a discount on both sites compared to Seattle this week.
Detroit ($5200 FD, $3100 DK) at Chicago- I also felt the need to include Detroit this week, especially due to their very enticing price on DK this week. It was announced yesterday that Chicago would start Jimmy Claussen this week. Claussen has only thrown 9 NFL passes since 2010. Back in 2010, he started 10 games for Carolina, where they went 1-9 and he had 3 TD passes versus 9 interceptions. Detroit has been one of the top 2 or 3 defenses this season, and I expect them to thrive against Claussen this week. While I rank Seattle best this week, I wouldn’t fault anyone if they ranked Buffalo or Detroit right there with them this week. They all have tremendous matchups, despite being on the road.