Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 17
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 16
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-16 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 10.02 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.43 FD Points
All Favorites- 8.35 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.73 FD Points
All Teams- 7.08 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 16- Atlanta (20 FD pts), Green Bay (16 FD pts), Cincy (15 FD pts)
The defensive that fit the criteria had one of its worst weeks of the season in Week 16. Carolina was the best of the bunch as they produced a solid 9 FD points. But St. Louis was a complete disappointment producing negative FD points, and allowing the Giants, Eli, and Odell Beckham to throw the ball all over the field. Finally, Miami was completely mediocre, producing a modest 6 FD points. Overall, the defensive scoring was down in Week 16. The defense that fits the criteria continues to hover above the 10 FD points per game average on the season.
As for my other picks, they may have been the biggest disappointment of the week. Seattle did what I expected and produced a very good 13 FD points. But neither Detroit nor Buffalo produced as expected despite having what looked like great matchups. I guess that is the “any given Sunday” mantra of the NFL.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Let me start by saying that Week 17 can be very unpredictable in terms of motivation of certain teams, and whether they choose to bench their starters at any point in a meaningless game. Make sure you continue to look for new information from coaches and/or beat writers leading up to kick off on Sunday. That being said, we have a whopping 7 defenses that fit the criteria this week, the most we have had all year. I will keep things short and sweet this week.
Seattle ($5500 FD, $3600 DK) vs St Louis- Seattle is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 41. Seattle is the best defense in football right now. I think they are pretty safe to use regardless of matchup if you are paying up for a defense in cash games or GPP’s. A St. Louis offense, led by Shaun Hill, and coming into Century Link Field is definitely not a matchup to be scared of.
Houston ($5400 FD, $3200 DK) vs Jacksonville- Houston is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Jacksonville has improved with Bortles under center, but they still rank bottom 3 in the NFL in total offense and points scored. Houston is 6th in points allowed per game and they lead the NFL in takeaways. They are in play on both sites this week but look more enticing on DK at only $3200.
Baltimore ($5200 FD, $3300 DK) vs Cleveland- Baltimore is a 10-point favorite with a total of 40.5. There is not too much to say here other than it looks like Cleveland will be starting undrafted rookie Connor Shaw this week. The Ravens need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. This may be the best defensive play on the board this week considering they come at a slight discount.
Miami ($4900 FD, $3100 DK) vs New York Jets- Miami is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 41.5. This is a matchup play as the Jets’ offense is 6th worst in total offense and 4th worst in points scored per game. Miami has been an average to above average defense and Geno Smith has been known to turn the ball over. Miami is also fairly cheap on both sites this week.
New England ($5400 FD, $3300 DK) vs Buffalo- New England is a 5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. This is one of those games to keep an eye on as New England has nothing to play for here. They are locked in as the #1 seed in the AFC. Belicheck is notorious for playing his starters in meaningless games though, so I expect to see them out there for at least 2-3 quarters or Sunday. New England is more of a contrarian GPP play this week.
Minnesota ($4800 FD, $2900 DK) vs Chicago- Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 44. Jay cutler is back under center this week after being benched last week. Cutler has always been turnover prone and who knows where his head is at after being benched. The Vikings look like one of the best cheaper options on the board this week.
San Francisco ($5000 FD, $3200 DK) vs Arizona- San Francisco is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 36.5. San Francisco is a scary team to use right now as it appears they have just flat out quit on their coach. But this is one of the lowest totals you will see in the NFL, and Arizona is starting Logan Thomas at QB. They also do not have much to play for in Week 17.
Happy Holidays to the RG Community!