Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 3
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
After a low scoring Week 1 for defenses, Week 2 was a much different story. Week 2 saw 11 defenses reach double digit fantasy points, with two teams breaking the 20 point mark. It was a week where having the right defense may have been the difference between winning a GPP and finishing outside the top 50. This will be the case more weeks than not. I am certainly ready to move on to Week 3.
Week 2 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 2 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.21
Other Defenses to Target: 8.00
All Favorites: 8.52
All Home Teams: 7.42
All Teams: 6.97
The defenses that fit the criteria had another very strong week. In a week where we saw all favorites and all home teams average over ten fantasy points per game, the defenses that fit the criteria still rose above and averaged 12.5 fantasy points. The top scoring defense of the week was the Denver Broncos with 23 fantasy points. As I mentioned last week, Denver made a great GPP play that should come at lower ownership. But I was shocked at how low the ownership was on maybe the best defense in the NFL. Those that used them were rewarded handsomely.
The remainder of the defenses that fit the criteria continued to post solid scores with the Panthers and Texans posting 14 fantasy points, Lions posting 9, Patriots posting 8, and Bears salvaging their night with a late punt return TD for 7 fantasy points. Unfortunately, I seemed to have more shares of the Lions and Patriots due to price, but overall, it was a very solid week for the defense that fit the criteria.
One thing to note before moving onto the picks is that the 2nd highest scoring defense of the week just missed the criteria. When I looked Sunday morning, I even almost added them. The Cardinals put up 22 fantasy points and the final odds I looked at Sunday were Cardinals favored by six points but the total was leaning more towards 45.5. I saw some 45’s but stuck with the consensus of 45.5 which put their opponent’s team total at 21.25 instead of 21, just missing the criteria.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5400 FD, $4100 DK) vs San Francisco – Seattle is a 10-point favorite with a total of 41.5. San Francisco’s projected team total is 15.75. If you are looking for a defense to pay up for this week, Seattle looks like the clear best option. They are typically a very strong team at home and play a San Francisco team that turned it over three times and allowed a pair of sacks to Carolina this past week. I expect Seattle to overwhelm the 49ers here and Vegas seems to agree, with the 49ers team total being a very low 15.25 points. I think Seattle is likely the way to go in cash games this week if you can afford the salary, and due to the fact that many people tend to go cheap at defense, they may be a solid GPP play as well.
Miami Dolphins ($4600 FD, $3000 DK) vs Cleveland – Miami is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 42. Cleveland’s team total is 16.25. In terms of going cheaper at defense this week, I expect Miami to be a very popular play. Miami’s defense did give up a lot of points last week, but they do have three turnovers and five sacks in the first two games this year. The reason they make a strong play this week though is more about their opponent. I expect to highlight teams facing the Browns a lot this year (we are now three for three to start the season). To make matters worse, the Browns will be starting a rookie QB this week. I think Miami makes a great play this week in both cash games and GPPs, especially at a more depressed price on DraftKings, but they also may be highly owned.
Carolina Panthers ($5000 FD, $3800 DK) vs Minnesota – Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Minnesota’s team total is 18.25. Carolina has been a very opportunistic defense so far this season creating six turnovers and recording four sacks in the first two games. Their opponent this week is the Minnesota Vikings. Sam Bradford looked very good in his Minnesota debut (although maybe a lot of the credit should go to Stefon Diggs). With that being said, this game is on the road, against a tougher defense, and the Vikings will be without Adrian Peterson. I expect the Panthers to be very aggressive in this game as they should not fear the run and Bradford tends to have happy feet in the pocket. I think Carolina makes a strong GPP play this week priced between Seattle and Miami.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4500 FD, $3100 DK) vs Los Angeles – Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 41.5. Los Angeles’ team total is 19. There is not much to say in this spot as Tampa’s defense has not been great, but they are facing an offense that has managed only nine points in two games and have allowed five sacks. The Bucs defense has recorded four sacks in the first two games. I do not know if I will go here but the Bucs will certainly make a contrarian GPP play this week as they are not in consideration most weeks.
Dallas Cowboys ($4600 FD, $2500 DK) vs Chicago – Dallas is a 7-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Chicago’s team total is 18.75. This pick will be more about the Bears offense than the Cowboys defense. The Bears offense looks like a mess right now. They have no running game and will be without Jay Cutler on a short week. I doubt I would look their way at the price on FanDuel, but I think the Cowboys are very much in play on DraftKings at a bargain bin price of only $2500.
Cincinnati Bengals ($4500 FD, $2800 DK) vs Denver – Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 42. Denver’s team total is 19.25. I think this is another interesting spot to look in GPPs. Cincinnati’s defense has got off to a slow start, but they do three interceptions in the first two weeks. Denver is their opponent this week, and while we should fear the Denver defense, I do think using defenses against Trevor Siemian may be a good play. The Broncos have turned it over four times and allowed three sacks in the first two weeks. I may have some shares of Cincinnati in GPPs this week, especially at price below $3000 on DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs ($4500 FD, $3200 DK vs New York Jets – Kansas City is a three-point favorite with a total of 42.5. New York’s team total is 19.75 points. A lot of teams fit the criteria this week and Kansas City is probably one of my least favorite spots. The Chiefs defense has got off to a slow start but they were one of the better defenses in football last season. I doubt I go here but you can likely get the Chiefs defense at >3% ownership in GPPs this week.
Green Bay Packers ($4400 FD, $3000 DK) vs Detroit – Green Bay is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Detroit’s team total is 20.50. I think this is an interesting spot for Green Bay as Detroit will likely rack up yards and score some points, but I think the Packers present some upside. They have seven sacks through two weeks and in the absence of a Detroit running game, they should be able to pin their ears back and get after Matt Stafford. In 11 career games against Green Bay, Stafford has turned the ball over 23 times. I think Green Bay makes a good contrarian pivot off of Miami this week at a similar price point in GPPs.
UPDATED: Due to line movement, the Giants no longer fit the criteria. The Giants are currently 3-point favorites with a total of 47. Washington’s implied team total is up to 22.
Other Defense to Target
Denver Broncos ($4800 FD, $3500 DK) at Cincinnati – I know I’ve already listed eight teams above that fit the criteria, but I tried to keep the write-ups shorter this week, and I think the Broncos are worth a mention here. We saw last week what the Broncos defense can do racking up 23 fantasy points at low ownership and being the GPP winning difference in many cases. Well arguably the best defense in the NFL should come at lower ownership again this week, and they happen to play a Bengals team that has allowed a league high eight sacks in two weeks and have turned the ball over three times. Denver makes a strong GPP play again this week.