Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 3
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Speaking of Vegas, one thing I touched on last week but would like to start officially incorporating in to this column every week are Vegas odds. Something I’ve always looked for when choosing my defense (I’ve been doing this for a long time in season-long leagues) for the week is that I try to find teams that are favored, preferably are at home, and in game with a low over/under. This was an idea that was further enforced by a great article by Rathburn on Rotowire last week which gave detailed data from the 2013 season. For the purposes of this column, I will use the criteria of defenses favored by 3 or more points, at home, with an over/under of 45 or less. This criteria will usually put the projected points allowed by the defense at 20 pts or less, which is pretty solid in today’s NFL. I will start by listing the defenses that fit this criteria, followed by other defenses I am targeting for the week. Every week I will continue to track the success of the defenses that fit the criteria versus other defenses for the week. I may tweak the criteria if I see any trends developing. I am certainly open to other suggestions as well.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Cincinnati ($5300 FD, $3300 DK) vs Tennessee – Cincinnati is a 7 point favorite at home with an O/U of 43.5. They are the biggest favorite this week that fit the criteria. They also have looked strong this year by giving up 13 points per game with a total of 5 sacks and 5 turnovers in 2 weeks.
Miami ($5000 FD, $2800 DK) vs Kansas City – Miami is a 4.5 point favorites at home with an O/U of 41.5. The Miami defense looked pretty good in sacking Tom Brady 4 times last week and causing two fumbles. Their price on DK is pretty enticing.
Carolina ($5600 FD, $3300 DK) vs Pittsburgh – Carolina is a 3.5 point favorite at home with an O/U of 41.5. You can’t go wrong with the Carolina defense so far, which has a total of 7 sacks and has created 6 turnovers in the first two weeks.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
New England ($5400 FD, $3500 DK) vs Oakland – The Patriots come close to fitting the above criteria (and maybe they should), but the total is 47. But the Patriots are 14 points favorites in this game, which means Vegas thinks the Raiders expected point total is only about 16.5 points. The Patriots are not cheap but they are my favorite defense overall this week. They are coming off a 4 interceptions and 6 sack performance in Week 2 against the Vikings, and now they get a Oakland team that turned the ball over 4 times last week against Houston. The Patriots should get a lead here and make Oakland one-dimensional on offense, which can lead to more opportunities for sacks, interceptions, and the coveted defensive TD’s.
Houston ($5200 FD, $3400 DK) at New York Giants – I really think it is a pretty safe bet to pick the defense facing the Giants almost every week. As mentioned last week, this Giants offensive line is a mess, which forces Eli Manning in to making a lot of quick decisions. Eli Manning and quick decisions equal a lot of interceptions. He already has 4 this year after throwing 27 last year. The Houston defense is coming off a 4 turnover performance last week against the Raiders. If you aren’t paying up for New England, I think Houston is the next best bet on the board.
New Orleans ($4600 FD, $3200 DK) vs Minnesota – My favorite bottom of the barrel option on FD this week is the Saints defense (I would look to St Louis for a cheaper option on DK). Let me start by saying the Saints defense has not been good so far. They’ve given up 63 points in 2 weeks so far. But this play is more of a play against the opponent, and also a gut feeling that the Saints HAVE to win this game. As mentioned above, Minnesota was intercepted 4 times last week and gave up 6 sacks. Their offense struggles to move the ball without Adrian Peterson as they can quickly become one-dimensional. The Saints are 0-2 and if they want to turn their season around, it starts this week.