Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 4
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 3 was a strange week as overall defensive scoring was low, especially for what many people considered the chalk teams. But then we also had some monster scoring efforts that brought the overall averages up. To win a GPP in Week 3, it most likely came down to having the Chiefs defense, as they had by far the highest score of the week with 35 fantasy points. Then we had two teams score 20+ points, six teams score 10+ points, but on the end of the spectrum, we had almost half the league score five fantasy points on fewer.
Week 3 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 3 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.18
Other Defenses to Target: 7.98
All Favorites: 8.46
All Home Teams: 7.46
All Teams: 7.02
The defenses that fit the criteria had a down week overall, especially as it came to the more popular teams. The Seahawks and Dolphins were probably the two biggest chalk teams and they only scored three and seven fantasy points, respectively. Carolina was another popular choice and they only score two fantasy points. Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Dallas all put up less than five fantasy points.
The above looks like a horrible week but that was all saved by the team mentioned above, the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ll admit the Chiefs were certainly not one of my top choices last week. But they did fit the criteria and put up one of the highest defensive scores you will see. Hopefully some of you took a shot with them and it led to some big GPP cashes, as their ownership percentage was very low (1% I believe in the Millionaire Maker.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Arizona Cardinals ($5,300 FD, $3,900 DK) vs Los Angeles – Arizona is an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Los Angeles’ projected team total is 17.25. This is an interesting spot as Arizona just allowed the Bills to score 33 points this past week. But I think that had more to do with the Arizona offense self-destructing (five turnovers) than the defense playing that poorly. The Bills did have a lot of success running the ball but it helps that they have the versatility of Tyrod Taylor. The Bills finished with 327 yards which is still below the NFL average. I think the Cardinals are in a good spot to bounce back this week at home. Remember, they held the Bucs to only seven points in Week 2 and put up 22 fantasy points. Their opponent, the Rams broke out with 37 points this past week. But this is a team that combined to score only nine points the previous two weeks combined. They rank last in total offense and are fourth worst in scoring offense. They have given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing defenses through three weeks. I think the Cardinals make a great play this week if you are paying up for a defense. They should be fairly popular in cash games and GPPs.
Houston Texans ($4,900 FD, $3,200 DK) vs Tennessee – Houston is a five-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Tennessee’s team total is 17.75. The Texans are another defense that did not look great last week. But they still rank fifth in total defense and seventh in scoring defense through three weeks. Losing JJ Watt obviously hurts any defense, but the Texans still have ten sacks through three weeks, of which Watt contributed 1.5 of them. This week they face a Tennessee offense that is tied for last in the NFL in scoring offense. They’ve turned the ball over seven times and allowed six sacks through three games. They are second in most points allowed to opposing defenses through three week. If you are looking for a little cost savings this week, I think the Texans make a very strong play in GPPs, and could even be argued for use in cash games.
New England Patriots ($4500 FD, $3300 DK) vs Buffalo- New England is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 44. Buffalo’s team total is 18.25. EDIT TO ADD: Please note that this pick is being added after the original article was posted. I was waiting for Vegas to release a total on this game. The Patriots defense is coming off a very strong effort shutting out the Texans, in a game they created three turnovers and had two sacks. The Bills offense has played well the last couple weeks but New England is usually very good at taking away what an opposing offense does best. I expect them to focus on stopping Shady McCoy and not allowing Tyrod Taylor to throw the deep ball. I think they can be successful here if they force Taylor to have to sustain drives. They are not my favorite play of the week but I thik they make a good GPP player this week.
Washington Redskins ($4,600 FD, $3,500 DK) vs Cleveland – Washington is an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 47. Cleveland has a team total of 19.75. This looks very similar to last week where we saw the Miami Dolphins in this same spot. A mediocre, below average defense facing the offense we all love to pick on, the Cleveland Browns. But the Cleveland offense actually looked pretty good last week, led by Cody Kessler at QB, and more so using Terrelle Pryor in a variety of ways. But I do think the Redskins will be more prepared for Pryor than the Dolphins were. I am more hesitant here than I was with the Dolphins defense last week, especially considering the Redskins do not come as cheap. I do think the Redskins make a good GPP play though as the Browns offense will always present upside for opposing defenses.
Minnesota Vikings ($4,700 FD, $3,600 DK) vs New York Giants – Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 43. New York’s team total is 19.25. This pick is mainly one to consider for those of you setting lineups tonight, or the late slate on Sunday/Sunday night. The Vikings have been one of the more surprisingly impressive defenses so far. They rank sixth in total defense and third in scoring defense. But what they did this past week on the road against the defending NFC East Champs was the most impressive performance so far. They forced Cam Newton into three interceptions and sacked him a whopping eight times. If they can do that against Newton and the Panthers, I could see them having similar success against a QB in Eli Manning that is much less mobile than Newton. I think the Vikings make another good GPP play this week.
Other Defense to Target
Denver Broncos ($5,200 FD, $3,700 DK) – I feel like I could include the Broncos defense every week in this column as they are one of the best defenses in the NFL. But while they may seem obvious, I do think the Broncos are flying under the radar a little bit right now as they have not been quite as dominant to this point. They are currently seventh in total defense and eight in scoring defense. They are second in the NFL in sacks and have created five turnovers. This week they face a Bucs team that has turned the ball over eight times so far and allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses through three weeks. Even though they are on the road, I think the Broncos make a great play this week in all formats facing an opponent that should present them with some opportunities to make big plays. I also think you can still get the Broncos at an ownership lower than it probably should be.