Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 4
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column, where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. But, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense, so picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only six points. I finished fourth by five points and the winner got double-digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 3
Here is the Week 3 Defensive Scoring Averages (Sunday/Monday Games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria – 7.33 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target – 4.33 FD Points
All Favorites – 6.20 FD Points
All Home Teams – 6.07 FD Points
All Teams – 6.13 FD Points
As you can see from above, the defenses that fit the criteria of 3-points-or-more favorite, at home, with an O/U of 45 or less got off to a pretty solid start overall. Both Cincinnati and Miami reached double-digit fantasy points. The one clunker was Carolina, who struggled with the Pittsburgh offense and put up zero fantasy points. Of note, I didn’t include them, as it was a Thursday night game, but Atlanta would have fit the criteria as well, and they put up a whopping 32 fantasy points!
My other defenses to target came up short in Week 3. New England seemed to be going through the motions in an unimpressive win on Sunday. They did hold the Raiders to only nine points scored, and six fantasy points won’t kill you, but I expected much more from one of my favorite defenses of the week. The Houston defense didn’t show up on Sunday either, as they allowed the Giants offense to finally get on track. The Saints defense was also able to hold the Vikings to only six points scored, but they didn’t create any turnovers either, which resulted in a mediocre six-fantasy-point week. In the words of Andy Reid: “I gotta do a better job.”
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
San Diego ($5300 FD, $3100 DK) vs Jacksonville – San Diego is 13.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5, which means Jacksonville is only projected to score about 15-16 points this week. As you saw last week with the Colts, as well as all of last season, targeting the team that faces the hapless Jags offense is usually a good decision. San Diego is one of my favorite defenses of the week.
Pittsburgh ($4900 FD, $2900 DK) vs Tampa – Pittsburgh is a 7-point favorite here with a total of 44.5. As seen this past Thursday against Atlanta, Tampa Bay is capable of giving up some monster defensive fantasy scores. The Steelers defense did suffer several injuries this past Sunday night, but they continued to look impressive in slowing down the Panthers offense. The Steelers defense is a little under-priced on both sites this week in my opinion, considering their opponent.
Houston ($5000 FD, $3300 DK) vs Buffalo – Houston is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 41. Houston struggled last week defensively against the Giants, but I think they can bounce back at home here against a Bills team that failed to produce much of an offense last week against San Diego. Houston is reasonably priced on both sites this week.
Baltimore ($5000 FD, $3000 DK) vs Carolina – Baltimore is a 3-point favorite with a total of 40.5. The Steelers defense just put up a solid 14-point effort against this Carolina team. All three of Carolina’s RBs are banged up, which could force them to become even more one-dimensional. Cam Newton also seemed to take quite a few shots to his injured ankle and ribs on Sunday night.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
I am only going to list one additional defense this week, as there are six teams on a bye (three less games) and four teams that fit the criteria above. I am personally high on both San Diego and Pittsburgh of the teams listed above. Both of those defenses, as well as one of my favorites listed below, can be found at reasonable prices on both FD and DK this week:
Detroit ($4700 FD, $3000 DK) at New York Jets – Detroit has staked its claim among one of the best defenses in football so far. They’re second in both points against and opponents rushing yards, and they’re third in opposing passing yards. Now they get a Jets offense that has been prone to making mistakes under Geno Smith. Smith has now thrown SIX interceptions that opponents have returned for TDs in his 19-game career. I think the Lions D is under-priced this week, especially on FD.