Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 5
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 4 was an interesting week for defenses as some of the top choices failed to live up to expectations. I think I even saw some people at the top of GPPs who got only one point from their defense. Again, roster construction is always important, but most weeks, defenses will matter greatly when it comes to taking down a top heavy GPP. Let’s move on to Week 5!
Week 4 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 4 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.11
Other Defenses to Target: 8.13
All Favorites: 8.42
All Home Teams: 7.41
All Teams: 7.00
The defenses that fit the criteria had a mediocre week but still finished with an average points scored that was higher than all favorites, all home teams, and all teams. The Texans led the way with a solid 11 point effort, which was the fourth highest defensive score of the week. The Redskins were also solid at nine points, followed by more disappointing efforts from the Cardinals with six points, Vikings with six points, and Patriots with four points.
The other defense to target last week was the Denver Broncos, and they came through with the second highest score of the week with 15 fantasy points. As mentioned, they also came at an ownership level a little lower than you would expect from one of the top two or three defenses in the NFL.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Minnesota Vikings ($4,800 FD, $3,400 DK) vs Houston – Minnesota is a seven-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Houston’s projected team total is 16.75. One of the bigger surprises early in this season has been how good this Vikings defense has played. They currently ranked seventh in the NFL in total defense and second in scoring defense, allowing only 12.5 points per game. They also lead the NFL in takeaways with 11 and are second in sacks with 15. Their opponent this week is the Houston Texans, who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to defenses this season. One of the best defenses in the NFL in a slightly above average matchup make one of the best cash game plays of the week, and also should be a strong play in GPPs, especially at their lower price on DraftKings.
Los Angeles Rams ($4,700 FD, $3,200 DK) vs Buffalo – Los Angeles is a 2-point favorite with a total of 39. Buffalo’s team total is 18.5. This Rams defense has been a little hit or miss so far. They have given up yards but they rank top ten in scoring defense. They also are third in takeaways with nine so far. I would be a little cautious here just because the Bills have been fairly stingy against defenses this year, giving up the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. But this Bills offense does not scare me much and the Rams defense is playing really well. Vegas seem to agree. I think the Rams make a good GPP gamble this week that should not be highly owned.
Miami Dolphins ($4,600 FD, $2,900 DK) vs Tennessee – Miami is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Tennessee’s team total is 19.75. This Miami defense gives up a lot of yards and is around middle of the pack in scoring defense. The reason for some optimism here and to give Miami a shot in GPPs in their opponent this week. The Tennessee Titans are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season. They are only scoring 15.5 points per game and are allowing almost two sacks per game and just over two turnovers per game. I certainly will not be heavy on Miami but I think they are worth a look at the price on DraftKings in GPPs.
Carolina Panthers ($5,000 FD, $3,300 DK) vs Tampa- Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Tampa’s team total is 20. I mentioned previously that I would update this section once the Panthers total was released. That being said, it seems Cam Newton is doubtful to play Monday night. This makes it a little harder to project the game flow here. But I think the matchup is a very good one for Carolina as Tampa has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season. They are allowing over two sacks per game and over two turnovers per game. Carolina is not cheap, especially on FanDuel, but I think they will be a popular defense on the Afternoon and Evening slates.
Green Bay Packers ($4,600 FD, $3,200 DK) vs New York Giants – Green Bay is a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. New York’s team total is 20.5. This is another spot where I do not necessarily like the defense that much but think the opponent is worth targeting. The Giants have turned the ball over nine times so far. They are a team that has been prone to put the ball on the ground, and Eli Manning is always capable of throwing multiple interceptions in a game. I expect Green Bay to grab a lead here and the Giants, who already have very little running game, to become a one-dimensional passing team. Again, Green Bay is reserved for GPPs only.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,900 FD, $3,500 DK) vs New York Jets – Pittsburgh is a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. New York’s team total is 20.5. The Steelers defense played much better in Week Three creating two turnovers and shutting the Chiefs out until the final quarter in garbage time. The biggest reason to like the Steelers defense this week though is their opponent, the turnover prone New York Jets. The Jets are giving up the most points in the NFL so far to opposing defenses, at 14 fantasy points per game. They lead in the league in turnovers with a whopping 13 of them so far. Turnovers can always lead to the coveted defensive TD. Pittsburgh makes one of my favorite GPP plays of the week.
Baltimore Ravens ($4,400 FD, $3,000 DK) vs Washington Redskins – Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 45. Washington’s team total is 20.75. Since the Ravens are my least favorite defense that fits the criteria this week, I will use this space to discuss this column going forward. Do you agree with the criteria? I have considered dropping the opponent team total to 20 points instead of 21. There have been suggestions to remove defenses facing an opponent that gives up limited fantasy points to opponent’s defenses. For example, the Redskins are the 27th worst offense to target through four games, giving up less than 5 fantasy points to opposing defenses. This makes me hesitant to recommend the Ravens this week, although they do fit the current criteria.
Denver Broncos ($5,100 FD, $3,800 DK) vs Atlanta Falcons – Denver is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5. Atlanta’s team total is 21. We arrive at the final team that fits the criteria this week and maybe the most interesting. We all know Denver has a great defense. I do not think many people thought the Falcons offense would be this good so far though. Just to note, the Falcons are the 2nd worst offense to target defenses against so far, so this fits in with the discussion above. But the Broncos defense is elite, and at home, and I tend to favor them in this matchup. Denver is top five in both total defense and total offense and they lead the league in sacks again. I expect them to come at low ownership once again which makes them a great GPP play in my opinion.
Other Defense to Target
New England Patriots ($4,800 FD, $3,700 DK) vs Cleveland Browns – I am not going to throw a lot of stats out here. This is more of a gut feel pick that the Patriots are going to try to make a statement this week. They were just shutout last week against Buffalo, losing 16-0, but now they get Tom Brady back. The Patriots are fourth in scoring defense and the Browns are the ninth best team to target defenses against so far this season. I just think the Patriots are in a good spot here and I will be considering them in both cash games and especially GPPs. Vegas tend to agree as the Browns team total is set at only 18 points this week.