Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 5
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column, where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. But, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense, so picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only six points. I finished fourth by five points and the winner got double-digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 4
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-4 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria – 7.86 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target – 6.25 FD Points
All Favorites – 6.38 FD Points
All Home Teams – 6.65 FD Points
All Teams – 5.93 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 4 – Philadelphia (20 pts), Miami (17 pts), KC (16 pts), Houston (13 pts)
The defenses that fit the criteria had another solid week overall. Houston and San Diego both produced double-digit point totals, while the Ravens produced a solid eight fantasy points. Pittsburgh was the only clunker, and although I mentioned it in my article last week, in hindsight, maybe they should have been a team to avoid considering all the injuries they had suffered on defense the previous week.
My other defense to target was Detroit, who was solid, but unspectacular. They produced two turnovers, two sacks, and held the Jets to 17 points. I thought they could do more. But sometimes, defensive scoring just comes down to whether your defense can convert their turnover opportunities into defensive TDs or not.
The highest scoring defense of the week was Philadelphia. On FD, they produced 20 fantasy points. On DK, they actually produced six additionally fantasy points due to their punt block TD. To me, this was a complete outlier. It would be impossible to predict them getting a punt block TD, interception return TD, and punt return TD in the same game. They still gave up 27 points on Sunday. The next highest-scoring defense was Miami. In the case of Miami, I think it’s safe to say that picking any defense playing the Raiders could result in a good defensive fantasy output every week. I’m guessing KC was also pretty low owned this past week. I would have had a hard time picking them this week, although it’s starting to look like the Patriots could be an offense to target defenses against. They seem to have lost their way offensively this season.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Detroit ($4800 FD, $3800 DK) vs Buffalo – Detroit is a 7-point favorite in this game with a total of 44. As mentioned last week, Detroit has a pretty solid defense. They also face a Buffalo team that has just made a QB change to Kyle Orton. This is the same Kyle Orton with a career QB rating under 80 who has thrown nine interceptions in his last five NFL starts (dating back to 2011 for four of those starts). I like Detroit best on FD, but they are in play on DK as well.
San Diego ($5400 FD, $3100 DK) vs New York Jets – San Diego is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Also mentioned last week, I like to target defenses facing Geno Smith. It didn’t pan out last week, but Geno Smith is a pick six waiting to happen. He currently is tied for the lead league in interceptions and is tied for second in the league in fumbles. I like San Diego best on DK, but they are in play everywhere as well.
San Francisco ($5300 FD, $3500 DK) vs Kansas City – San Francisco is a 6-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The Niners defense looked pretty impressive last week, slowing down the Eagles high-powered offense. The Chiefs have looked better offensively the last couple weeks, but I think at any time they can revert to the team that turned it over three times and were sacked four times in Week 1. The Niners will likely focus on stopping the run and force Alex Smith to beat them.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Cincinnati ($5300 FD, $3800 DK) at New England – If you are paying up a defense this week, Cincinnati is probably my favorite option. Cincinnati currently leads the NFL in points allowed at 13 points per game. Watching NE on Monday night, you could see that their offense is completely out of sorts. It all starts with Tom Brady. I think Brady, at age 37, is finally on the downside of his career. He did not look very good last year either. He lacks zip on his balls and his been pretty inaccurate when throwing downfield.
Denver ($5100 FD, $2600 DK) vs Arizona – My main reason for listing Denver here is due to their low price on DK, although their price on FD isn’t bad either. I think this a game where Denver could get out to a lead, and then force Drew Stanton to throw a lot. I do not think Drew Stanton is a good QB. He was fortunate not to have thrown multiple interceptions in his last game versus SF. The Broncos also have guys by the names of Miller and Ware, who are pretty good at getting to the QB and causing havoc.