Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 6
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
As mentioned last week, any suggestions in terms of improvements to this article, especially as it relates to the criteria, are always welcome. I will also continue to try to answer any questions in the comments section when possible. Please keep an eye out for any updates to this article on late Saturday night or Sunday morning due to line changes. Time to move on to Week 6 and thank you for reading!
Week 5 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 5 2016
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 8.96
Other Defenses to Target: 8.17
All Favorites: 8.36
All Home Teams: 7.37
All Teams: 6.99
Overall, the defense that fit the criteria seemed to have a down week averaging only 6.6 fantasy points between the eight teams. That being said, this was still a higher average score than all favorites, all home teams, and all teams for the week as it was a lower scoring week overall. The bright spot of the picks was my favorite play from last week, the Minnesota Vikings. I had pretty much 100% ownership of them on DraftKings and they did not disappoint with 16 fantasy points.
The other defense to target was also a good play as the Patriots finished with ten fantasy points. In a week where very few teams reached double digits (only six teams did), the Patriots were a solid play in both cash games and GPPs. As always, it is never a bad idea to target the defense facing the Cleveland Browns.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Buffalo Bills ($4,800 FD, $3,700 DK) vs San Francisco – Buffalo is an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. San Francisco’s projected team total is 18.50. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bills have now put up a top three defensive score each of the last 3 weeks with 22, 15, and 18 fantasy points over that time frame. The Bills are tied for fifth in scoring defense, third in takeaways, and fourth in sacks. They have 12 sacks over the last three weeks. Colin Kaepernick will take over at QB this week for San Francisco, and he seems like he should be an upgrade. That being said, there is a reason he was not starting over Gabbert immediately, and it wasn’t because he did stand during the national anthem. The Bills are heavy favorites here and the 49ers (along with Cleveland) have the lowest projected team total of the week. The Bills are my favorite cash game play of the week and a strong play in GPP’s as well.
Tennessee Titans ($4,700 FD, $3,300 DK) vs Cleveland – Tennessee is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 44. Cleveland’s projected team total is 17.75. It would not be a defensive column without the team that is facing the Cleveland Browns. The Titans have been a top ten defense so far this season. They are coming off a strong performance last week with six sacks and two turnovers. The Cleveland Browns are again one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking 29th in scoring offense. They are allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season. There is also a chance they could be starting their fifth round rookie draft pick, Kevin Hogan, this week. Regardless if it is Hogan or Kessler, the Titans make a strong play this week, with consideration in both cash games and GPPs.
New England Patriots ($4,700 FD, $3,200 DK) vs Cincinnati – New England is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Cincinnati’s team total is 20. The Patriots defense has given up some yards at times this season, but they continue to limit scoring opportunities ranking fourth in scoring defense. This week they face a Bengals offense that has seen Andy Dalton get sacked 17 times already. The Bengals have been somewhat stingy for opposing defenses this year, ranking 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. But New England is a heavy favorite here and at home, and I expect Cincinnati to be playing from behind. This should give New England some opportunities to create turnovers. I would reserve New England for GPPs this week though.
Arizona Cardinals ($5,400 FD, $3,800 DK) vs New York Jets – Arizona is an 7.5-point favorite with a total of 46. New York’s team total is 19.25. This is the Monday night game this week so this pick is reserved for contests starting on Thursday, as well as the Afternoon and Primetime slates. If this game was on the main slate, the Cardinals would be right up there with the Bills as the top cash game play. The Jets are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year and are averaging almost three turnovers per game. The Cardinals rank second in the NFL in interceptions this year. If you are paying up at defense on the Thursday slate, the Cardinals may be the way to go, and they should be the chalk play in the afternoon and primetime slates.
Seattle Seahawks ($4,800 FD, $3,600 DK) vs Atlanta – Seattle is a 7-point favorite with a total of 45. Atlanta’s team total is 19. This looks very similar to last week where the Denver Broncos were in this same spot. That did not work out well as Denver only posted four fantasy points. This Atlanta offense is legit and they are allowing the second least fantasy points to opposing defenses this week. These are all reasons to tread lightly or stay away from Seattle. But again, we have a chance to get probably a top three defense in the NFL at home as decent sized favorites, and with low ownership. The Falcons have been sacked 11 times this year, a number I think this Seattle defense can add to. Seattle makes a nice contrarian GPP play this week in my opinion.
Detroit Lions ($4,500 FD, $3,000 DK) vs Los Angeles – Detroit is a three-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Los Angeles’ team total is 20.75. This play is much less about Detroit’s ability as a defense and more about the opponent. The Rams rank last in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense. They are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this season. They are giving up over two sacks per game and almost two turnovers per game. Detroit is far from my favorite play this week, but I do think they have some appeal as another contrarian GPP play this week, at a cheaper price point on both sites.
New York Giants ($4,300 FD, $3,000 DK) vs Baltimore – New York is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Baltimore’s team total is 19.75. There seems to be one defense that fits the criteria every week that I likely will not consider in my lineups. This week, the Giants fit the bill. The Giants defense has improved some this season, but they are still a middle of the pack defense. The Ravens offense is about average to below average. They are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year, allowing over two sacks per game and turning the ball over 1-2 times per game. I likely won’t go here, but the Giants currently fit the criteria and are another GPP option this week if you are looking to save funds.
Other Defense to Target
Philadelphia Eagles ($4,500 FD, $3,100 DK) vs Washington – I did not love the spot for the Eagles defense last week, yet they still created a turnover, had four sacks, and held the Lions under 250 total yards. The Eagles currently rank second in both total defense and scoring defense. They are top five in sacks per game and are forcing almost two turnovers per game. The Redskins have been fairly stingy to opposing defenses so far allowing only the 29th most fantasy points. That being said, they have not faced a good defense yet this season. What makes me like the Eagles this week is both the combination of the upside they always bring to the table but also the low price point on both sites. I think the Eagles make a good, high upside GPP play this week.