Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 7
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column, where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week.
Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. But, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense, so picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only six points. I finished fourth by five points and the winner got double-digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 6
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-4 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria – 8.00 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target – 5.25 FD Points
All Favorites – 7.22 FD Points
All Home Teams – 6.65 FD Points
All Teams – 6.27 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 6 – Detroit (21 FD pts), Philadelphia (20 FD pts), Arizona (17 FD pts), Denver (15 FD pts)
The defenses that fit the criteria this past week had one solid play and one play that did not work out. Tennessee continued to show that picking the defense against Jacksonville is usually a good decision. Tennessee put up a solid 13 FD points by forcing two turnovers and getting six sacks. They did not get the elusive defensive TD. Through four weeks tracking this, seven of the 12 defenses that have fit the criteria have put up double-digit FD points. Eight of 12 have put up at least eight FD points. The other four have put up three FD points or less. So while the criterion has been very solid about 66% of the time, it has been very hit or miss. Another thing to note is that through four weeks, only one of the teams that have fit the criteria has scored a defensive or special teams TD.
My other defenses to target also went 1-for-2 this past week. Denver was very solid in putting up 15 FD points, which was helped a lot by the very late pick six. Geno Smith and the Jets continue to be another team to target defenses against. The big disappointment to me was the San Diego defense. They had been playing great and got a Raiders offense that has been struggling, but in this game, San Diego gave up quite a few big plays in the passing game, and let Derek Carr get comfortable in the pocket.
The top defense of the week was the Detroit Lions, who have probably been the best defense in the NFL so far. I almost listed them last week, and did target them some, but I backed off because I thought Teddy Bridgewater made the Vikings offense a lot better. But in this game, the Lions defense dominated from start to finish. The second-highest scoring defense of the week was Philadelphia. Philadelphia has now shown up as a top-two scoring defense for three weeks in a row. I’ve labeled them somewhat of a fluke so far, but going forward, this defense has been much improved. They finally put a complete defensive effort together in shutting out the Giants. They are on a bye this week, but may be a defense to look more closely at going forward.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Buffalo ($5000 FD, $3300 DK) vs Minnesota – Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Overall the Bills defense has been pretty solid this year at 11th in total yards per game and eighth in points allowed per game. They also have 19 sacks, tied for second in the NFL, and have created 10 turnovers, which is tied for 10th in the NFL. This week they get a Minnesota team that has scored 13 points combined in the last two weeks, and has scored 10 points or less in four of their six games this season.
San Diego ($5300 FD, $3300 DK) vs Kansas City – San Diego is a 4-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Despite a poor effort this past week, San Diego has been one of the better defenses in the NFL. They are still third in the NFL in yards allowed per game and second in the NFL in points allowed per game. Kansas City is an offense that tends to be very one-dimensional. I think if the Chargers can stop the run, they will be in good position to produce fantasy points against the NFL’s 30th-ranked passing offense.
Pittsburgh ($4800 FD, $2700 DK) vs Houston – Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. I’ll admit that Pittsburgh does not jump out to me as a great target initially. They have been pretty mediocre defensively, and suffered some tough injuries a few weeks back. That being said, Houston is another team that tends to be very one-dimensional on offense. If Pittsburgh can stop the run, they can force the 28th-ranked pass offense in the NFL to beat them. The Steelers also have a fairly cheap price on both sites this week.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Seattle ($5300 FD, $3200 DK) at St Louis – I wasn’t really planning to list them this week, but then I looked at their price on both sites and saw that they are priced at a discount this week. In cash games, they are probably the safest option. This is still one of the best defenses in the league. They may be highly owned in GPPs, but this week they face a very mediocre St. Louis offense with a rookie QB. If Seattle can grab a lead in this game, their ball-hawking defense should have the opportunity to produce a few turnovers.
Cleveland ($5200 FD, $3000 DK) at Jacksonville – This one is pretty simple. Take the defense that is facing the Jaguars. Through six weeks, defenses facing the Jaguars have produced double-digit fantasy points every week. They have put up an average of 13.83 FD points. The Browns are coming off a game in which they held the Steelers offense to only 10 points scored, and so I think they’re in play on both sites this week, although their price on DK comes at a better discount.