Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 8
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 7
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-4 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria – 7.73 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target – 5.00 FD Points
All Favorites – 7.09 FD Points
All Home Teams – 6.85 FD Points
All Teams – 6.31 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 7 – Jacksonville (16 FD pts), Minnesota (15 FD pts), Indianapolis (14 FD pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had an up and down week. Buffalo put up a very solid 10 FD points by holding Minnesota to 16 points scored, recorded 5 sacks, and coming up with 2 interceptions. Buffalo was one of only six teams to reach double digits in Week 7. Pittsburgh was solid last week with 7 FD points on the backs of 3 takeaways. San Diego was the only below average performer. They were unable to gain control of the game and force Alex Smith to throw. As a result, KC managed the clock and ran the ball 39 times. The thing that was again missing this week was that the criteria did not hit on any defensive TD’s. The defenses that fit the criteria are now 1 for 15 on the year in getting the coveted defensive TD’s. I think they are coming soon.
My other picks also were up and down. Cleveland became the first team to fail to score double digit fantasy points when facing the Jaguars this year. But they did put up a solid 8 FD points. Cleveland had 3 interceptions and 2 sacks, but failed to turn any of them in to big plays. The one clunker this week was Seattle. I’m starting to think it’s time to reevaluate this Seattle team, especially on the road. Their defense is just not playing good football right now. While they did not give up a lot of yards, they commit far too many penalties, and are not creating many turnovers.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Kansas City ($4800 FD, $2800 DK) vs St Louis – The Chiefs are 7-point favorites with a total of 43.5. I’ll start by saying that this criteria this week brings us three teams that certainly aren’t chalk picks. I doubt any of these 3 teams will be highly owned. The Chiefs defense has played well over the last 4 weeks, holding opponents to an average of 18 points scored. They’ve been especially good against the pass, ranking 2nd in the NFL, and have 12 sacks over the last 4 games. The Rams offense has been mediocre overall, and coming off a huge win, I could see a letdown from the Rams here. Their price is attractive on both sites this week.
Cleveland ($4900 FD, $2700 DK) vs Oakland – The Browns are 7-point favorites with a total of 43.5. The Raiders are now 0-6 and their offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd to last in points scored per game. I expected the Browns defense to be better last week against the Jaguars. The Browns biggest weakness has been stopping the run. Fortunately for them, the Raiders have the worst rushing offense in the NFL. There price is solid on both sites this week, especially on DK.
Tampa Bay ($4800 FD, $2900 DK) vs Minnesota – The Bucs are a 3-points favorite with a total of 42. The Tampa Bay defense has not been very good this year, especially over their last few games. Their biggest weakness has been the inability to stop the pass. Fortunately for them, the Vikings rank last in the NFL in passing offense at only 183 yards per game. Coming off a bye, I think the Bucs defense could be in a good spot to produce here with a cheaper price on both sites this week.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
Miami ($5400 FD, $3300 DK) at Jacksonville – I might as well go back to the well this week and pick the defense facing the Jaguars offense. Last week was the first time all season that a defense didn’t produce double digit points facing the Jaguars, but the 8 points Cleveland produced was still solid. As stated in previous weeks, the Jaguars offense is bottom two in both total yards and points scored. They’ve also given up the most sacks in the NFL and have the 3rd most giveaways. Miami is not cheap this week, but they are probably one of the best cash game plays and also in play if you are paying up in GPP’s.
Dallas ($4700 FD, $3000 DK) vs Washington – If you are looking for a cheaper option this week, look no further than the Cowboys, especially at their cheap price on FD. The main reason Dallas is in play this week is that the Redskins have decided to start a career journeyman QB in Colt McCoy. McCoy has 21 NFL starts and has turned the ball over 22 times. This Dallas defense has been better than expected, and I think they are in a great spot this week against McCoy and the Redskins.