Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 9
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 8
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-4 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 10.00 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 7.00 FD Points
All Favorites- 7.48 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.07 FD Points
All Teams- 6.59 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 8 – Miami (28 FD points), KC (19 FD points), Minnesota (19 FD points)
The criteria had another strong week and continued to hit 2 out of 3. KC was the 2nd highest scoring defense of the week and put up a very solid 19 FD points aided by 7 sacks and a kickoff return for a TD. Cleveland was also very solid with 13 FD points holding the Raiders to 13 points with 3 sacks and 3 turnovers. The only clunker was Tampa Bay. As I mentioned in my column, I thought they were a contrarian play, but were hard to trust because they just have not played well this season. They held the Vikings to only 13 offensive points, but failed to force any turnovers.
My other defenses to target were also pretty solid this past week. Miami put up one of the highest fantasy defense scores of the year with 28 FD points. As the trend has gone, picking the defense that faces the Jaguars has been fantasy gold. The Dolphins forced 3 turnovers, had 4 sacks, and scored 2 defensive TD’s. The Cowboys put up a very average 6 FD points. For the price, they didn’t hurt you. But in a week with some high scoring defenses, they were a disappointment. They simply failed to pressure and shutdown Colt McCoy like I thought they would.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Cincinnati ($5600 FD, $3300 DK) vs Jacksonville- Cincinnati is an 11-point favorite with a total of 43. Not only does Cincinnati fit this criteria, but they fit the season long criteria of just picking the defense that is facing the Jaguars. There is not much else to say here. Through 8 weeks, the defense that faces the Jaguars has produced a minimum of 8 FD points, with double digit points in 7 of 8 weeks. Cincy is the plug and play cash game defense this week, but also very much in play in GPP’s with 20+ point upside.
San Francisco ($5200 FD, $3200 DK) vs St Louis- San Francisco is a 10-point favorite with a total of 44. This is an instance where the Niners just faced the Rams in Week 6. In that game, the Niners produced 14 FD points by holding the Rams to 17 points, getting 5 sacks and producing an interception returned for a TD. That game was in St. Louis. This game is a home game for San Francisco where they are a big favorite. The Niners are a very nice option on both sites this week if you are looking for a slight discount below Cincinnati.
Kansas City ($5300 FD, $3300 DK) vs New York Jets- Kansas City is a 9-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The Jets have been another great offense to target defenses against. Whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith start at QB, they both turn the ball over at an alarming rate. As bad as Geno has been, Vick may be even more careless with the ball. The Jets are a bottom 5 offensive team, and the Bills just forced 6 turnovers against the Geno/Vick combo. Kansas City is a strong play if you want to pivot away from Cincy at this price point in GPP’s.
Seattle ($5500 FD, $3300 DK) vs Oakland- Seattle is a 15-point favorite with a total of 43. This Seattle defense has not been near as good this year as they were last year. But if they are going to produce, this should be the week. They are at home facing an Oakland offense that is 2nd worst in the NFL in both yards per game and point scored per game. For the price, I probably still like the 3 defenses listed above better. But Seattle provides another solid option with upside if you want to go contrarian from Cincy, SF, and even KC this week.
Cleveland ($4800 FD, $2900 DK) vs Tampa Bay- Cleveland is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43. Tampa Bay has been another solid team to target defenses against. The Vikings just put up 19 FD points against Tampa. Tampa is last in the NFL in offensive yards per game and 6th worst in points scored per game. The Browns defense has actually been pretty solid overall this year, and has produced 13, 8, and 8 FD points over the last 3 weeks. They are a little underpriced on both sites this week in my opinion.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
This is the first week that the criteria has produced five defenses. Looking at the above options, they are probably my five favorite defensive picks of the week. I do not see myself using any defenses other than the ones listed above. Cleveland provides a nice salary relief on both sites, and I do not like any teams priced below them on either site. Cincinnati, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Seattle all provide pricier options with huge upside this week in my opinion. I will not force another pick in this space when I feel the criteria has produced the best picks for Week 9. Good luck to everyone this week!