Daily Fantasy Golf: CIMB Classic Picks & Projections
Talk about a rough start to the 2013-14 PGA season. In the first tournament of the year I had John Merrick in all of my lineups and he withdrew right before his tee time. Then last week I had Hideki Matsuyama in all of my leagues and guess what he did? That’s right, he withdrew right before his tee time. I’m hoping that my luck can change this week as last season was proved that the projections are very useful. But before we get into this week’s picks, let’s recap the awful week that I’d like to forget about:
Recap of Shriners Open Picks
- John Peterson – Missed the cut by one stroke. Not what I was hoping for from the Web.com star.
- Camilo Villegas – Missed the cut by two strokes after having an awful first round and not being able to do enough to make the cut the second day.
- Jimmy Walker – My only pick that made the cut. He played well.
- Ben Martin – Big disappointment, he wasn’t even close to the cut line.
- Bob Estes – Yet again, another letdown. Missed the cut.
Not a great week, but I am expecting a big bounce back week and hopefully we will have something to brag about in next week’s column.
How the projections are calculated:
(All salaries & picks are base on Draftstreet scoring & pricing)
1. Projections are based on three different criteria: Odds to win, % of cuts made, and % of top 10 finishes. They are weighted 70%, 15%, and 15% respectively.
2. The player score is a combination of the three criteria and is a score out of 100. The player score is essentially my ranking system.
3. Once the player score is calculated, I estimate a winning score and give that fantasy output to the golfer with the highest player score. Then I evenly distribute fantasy points all the way down to the lowest ranked golfer.
CIMB Classic Projections
This week’s tournament has quite a few big names in it which always makes it more interesting. The tournament is being held in Malaysia so a few players will likely be out of their element. The field is very limited and there is no cut this week.
| Player Name | Avg. Odds | Events | Cuts % | Top 10 % | Player Score | Projection | Salary | $ / FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Horschel | 40.00 | 26 | 84.62% | 30.77% | 89.15 | 31.32 | $16,898 | $539.46 |
| Chris Kirk | 50.00 | 24 | 83.33% | 12.50% | 79.30 | 27.94 | $15,401 | $551.14 |
| Kevin Streelman | 63.71 | 25 | 72.00% | 20.00% | 77.70 | 26.93 | $15,126 | $561.69 |
| Jimmy Walker | 27.71 | 24 | 75.00% | 20.83% | 91.90 | 33.10 | $18,617 | $562.45 |
| Marc Leishman | 63.43 | 23 | 69.57% | 17.39% | 77.20 | 26.20 | $15,051 | $574.47 |
| Bill Haas | 33.71 | 25 | 72.00% | 36.00% | 88.60 | 30.65 | $17,681 | $576.91 |
| Harris English | 71.14 | 26 | 80.77% | 15.38% | 75.50 | 25.92 | $15,040 | $580.35 |
| Brendon de Jonge | 41.43 | 30 | 83.33% | 13.33% | 83.25 | 28.01 | $16,314 | $582.43 |
| Camilo Villegas | 81.43 | 23 | 69.57% | 8.70% | 65.15 | 22.05 | $12,874 | $583.85 |
| Charley Hoffman | 39.71 | 23 | 82.61% | 21.74% | 88.50 | 29.50 | $17,259 | $585.05 |
| Graham DeLaet | 30.57 | 26 | 80.77% | 26.92% | 91.30 | 31.60 | $18,504 | $585.57 |
| Matt Jones | 75.29 | 24 | 75.00% | 20.83% | 72.70 | 25.24 | $14,859 | $588.72 |
| Rickie Fowler | 33.57 | 22 | 77.27% | 22.73% | 89.00 | 30.99 | $18,259 | $589.27 |
| Charles Howell III | 40.71 | 26 | 69.23% | 19.23% | 83.50 | 29.30 | $17,279 | $589.81 |
| Russell Henley | 91.43 | 24 | 66.67% | 12.50% | 62.15 | 19.80 | $11,998 | $605.96 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 16.29 | 7 | 85.71% | 28.57% | 97.00 | 36.20 | $22,334 | $616.96 |
| Gary Woodland | 47.86 | 26 | 84.62% | 7.69% | 77.85 | 26.90 | $16,616 | $617.70 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 84.29 | 26 | 61.54% | 19.23% | 65.05 | 22.54 | $14,018 | $622.05 |
| K J Choi | 47.14 | 24 | 79.17% | 8.33% | 78.40 | 27.61 | $17,173 | $622.08 |
| Ryan Moore | 29.14 | 22 | 68.18% | 13.64% | 85.10 | 29.63 | $18,461 | $622.97 |
| Martin Laird | 66.00 | 21 | 61.90% | 9.52% | 66.75 | 23.55 | $14,673 | $623.08 |
| Roberto Castro | 41.43 | 29 | 65.52% | 13.79% | 77.60 | 26.59 | $16,574 | $623.28 |
| Matt Every | 100.71 | 28 | 60.71% | 14.29% | 59.70 | 20.17 | $12,572 | $623.33 |
| Bubba Watson | 31.43 | 21 | 80.95% | 14.29% | 88.05 | 29.97 | $18,683 | $623.35 |
| Tim Clark | 105.00 | 20 | 55.00% | 15.00% | 58.45 | 19.10 | $11,974 | $626.91 |
| Ryan Palmer | 92.86 | 22 | 77.27% | 18.18% | 68.05 | 22.10 | $13,879 | $628.01 |
| Kevin Stadler | 74.00 | 25 | 68.00% | 12.00% | 67.05 | 21.50 | $13,516 | $628.65 |
| Jeff Overton | 48.57 | 24 | 66.67% | 8.33% | 73.10 | 25.58 | $16,102 | $629.54 |
| John Huh | 64.57 | 28 | 60.71% | 7.14% | 65.00 | 22.20 | $13,984 | $629.99 |
| David Lynn | 57.29 | 22 | 59.09% | 9.09% | 68.90 | 24.90 | $15,779 | $633.66 |
| Jonas Blixt | 65.71 | 24 | 62.50% | 8.33% | 66.40 | 23.21 | $15,033 | $647.66 |
| Michael Thompson | 109.29 | 22 | 50.00% | 13.64% | 53.70 | 17.80 | $11,546 | $648.55 |
| Nick Watney | 19.14 | 26 | 69.23% | 15.38% | 90.45 | 32.98 | $21,493 | $651.70 |
| Boo Weekley | 121.43 | 27 | 85.19% | 14.81% | 61.95 | 20.51 | $13,539 | $660.21 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 50.00 | 3 | 66.67% | 0.00% | 67.50 | 24.23 | $16,009 | $660.84 |
| Kyle Stanley | 101.43 | 24 | 50.00% | 12.50% | 56.15 | 18.82 | $12,494 | $663.98 |
| Chris Stroud | 135.71 | 26 | 69.23% | 15.38% | 52.75 | 16.11 | $10,726 | $665.69 |
| Brian Davis | 78.00 | 28 | 60.71% | 14.29% | 64.20 | 21.86 | $14,566 | $666.36 |
| Daniel Summerhays | 87.43 | 26 | 57.69% | 15.38% | 62.40 | 21.18 | $14,139 | $667.47 |
| Keegan Bradley | 16.00 | 25 | 80.00% | 28.00% | 96.05 | 34.20 | $22,901 | $669.62 |
| Sergio Garcia | 13.71 | 17 | 88.24% | 35.29% | 99.15 | 36.40 | $24,386 | $669.95 |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 72.57 | 26 | 61.54% | 7.69% | 62.80 | 21.52 | $14,474 | $672.55 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 28.43 | 22 | 68.18% | 4.55% | 80.85 | 28.28 | $19,050 | $673.58 |
| Scott Hend | 74.29 | – | 50.00% | 2.00% | 58.55 | 19.83 | $13,517 | $681.61 |
| Ernie Els | 24.71 | 19 | 68.42% | 5.26% | 82.70 | 28.62 | $19,760 | $690.43 |
| John Merrick | 121.43 | 23 | 69.57% | 8.70% | 52.95 | 17.46 | $12,206 | $698.89 |
| Kevin Chappell | 107.14 | 24 | 66.67% | 12.50% | 57.65 | 19.15 | $13,401 | $699.61 |
| Bryce Molder | 107.14 | 24 | 70.83% | 0.00% | 55.35 | 18.48 | $12,995 | $703.24 |
| David Hearn | 120.00 | 26 | 69.23% | 7.69% | 53.80 | 18.14 | $13,242 | $729.95 |
| Phil Mickelson | 8.14 | 21 | 85.71% | 33.33% | 99.55 | 39.50 | $29,114 | $737.06 |
| Patrick Reed | 125.00 | 26 | 61.54% | 19.23% | 52.85 | 16.79 | $12,528 | $746.21 |
| Josh Teater | 153.57 | 24 | 79.17% | 12.50% | 48.70 | 14.76 | $11,041 | $748.01 |
| Jerry Kelly | 121.43 | 22 | 68.18% | 9.09% | 52.75 | 16.45 | $12,473 | $758.20 |
| Cameron Tringale | 107.86 | 24 | 66.67% | 4.17% | 52.90 | 17.13 | $13,305 | $776.85 |
| Brendan Steele | 121.43 | 26 | 65.38% | 7.69% | 50.00 | 15.77 | $12,414 | $786.96 |
| Richard Lee | 139.29 | 24 | 70.83% | 8.33% | 48.75 | 15.10 | $11,902 | $788.29 |
| Stewart Cink | 145.00 | 22 | 63.64% | 13.64% | 47.30 | 14.42 | $11,674 | $809.43 |
| Scott Stallings | 146.43 | 27 | 48.15% | 14.81% | 44.80 | 12.73 | $10,487 | $823.65 |
| Scott Brown | 114.29 | 21 | 57.14% | 4.76% | 49.10 | 15.44 | $12,785 | $828.23 |
| Retief Goosen | 153.57 | 8 | 75.00% | 12.50% | 47.10 | 14.08 | $11,969 | $849.80 |
| Nicholas Thompson | 185.71 | 29 | 68.97% | 6.90% | 38.90 | 11.72 | $10,110 | $862.75 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 150.00 | 24 | 41.67% | 8.33% | 39.30 | 12.39 | $10,754 | $867.65 |
| Brian Gay | 130.71 | 24 | 66.67% | 4.17% | 44.90 | 13.07 | $11,377 | $870.44 |
| Martin Flores | 160.71 | 25 | 64.00% | 8.00% | 38.95 | 12.06 | $10,779 | $894.05 |
| John Rollins | 127.14 | 24 | 62.50% | 8.33% | 46.50 | 13.41 | $11,988 | $894.06 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 150.00 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 36.35 | 11.04 | $10,500 | $950.89 |
| D A Points | 127.14 | 28 | 53.57% | 10.71% | 47.05 | 13.75 | $13,083 | $951.73 |
| Shiv Kapur | 185.71 | 1 | 65.00% | 0.00% | 33.40 | 10.37 | $10,291 | $992.75 |
| David Lingmerth | 167.86 | 23 | 47.83% | 13.04% | 38.40 | 11.38 | $11,514 | $1,011.75 |
| Prayad Marksaeng | 192.86 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 30.15 | 9.69 | $9,809 | $1,012.27 |
| Wade Ormsby | 207.14 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 28.45 | 9.35 | $9,625 | $1,029.18 |
| Seuk hyun Baek | 153.57 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 33.95 | 10.70 | $11,165 | $1,043.05 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | 257.14 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 26.45 | 8.68 | $9,262 | $1,067.54 |
| Siddikur Rahman | 214.29 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 27.45 | 9.01 | $9,753 | $1,081.97 |
| Nicholas Fung | 928.57 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 24.45 | 8.00 | $8,857 | $1,107.13 |
| Lucas Glover | 200.00 | 23 | 43.48% | 8.70% | 33.35 | 10.03 | $11,451 | $1,141.88 |
| Berry Henson | 371.43 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 25.45 | 8.34 | $9,574 | $1,148.23 |
| Rashid Ismail | 1142.86 | – | 25.00% | 1.00% | 23.45 | 7.66 | $9,216 | $1,202.82 |
CIMB Classic Picks
- Hideki Matsuyama: $22,334 – You have to have a short memory in daily fantasy sports and that’s exactly what I am going to do this week. I’m forgiving Matsuyama for his late WD last week. He has a great chance to win this tournament. Last year the winning score was below -20 so in order to contend you have to be able to put together some low rounds and Matsuyama is just the guy to do it. After a week off last week (thanks to the WD), I think he comes out firing right from the beginning. Matsuyama is my favorite to win this week.
- Bill Haas: $17,681 Haas has a lot of stats in his favor this week. He has good odds to win, has a great top 10 finish rate, and has a good cut rate as well. I love Haas for this price. He didn’t finish off the 2012-13 season on a high note, but I think he will start this season off with a bang. I am pretty confident that we see Haas with a top-10 finish this week, and he is my dark horse to win it.
- Brendon De Jonge: $16,314 De Jonge is always one of my favorite players to take on courses that are susceptible to low scores. There are fewer players on the tour that can string together as many birdies as De Jonge can. His price is very affordable and I see him scoring at least -15 this week. To me, this is an easy one.
- Chris Kirk: $15,401 Kirk was a popular pick last week at the Shriners and I’m guessing he will be a popular pick again this week. He played well in this tournament last season and has made 8 of the last 9 cuts. Without having to worry about making the cut this week, I think we see Kirk fire some low rounds and finish close to the top 10.
- Harris English: $15,040 – English is always one of my favorite golfers to take. He is consistent and he is always priced very fairly. He’s coming off of a 40th place finish at the Shriners and I think he should be able to crack the top-20 this week. I’m avoiding most of the lower tier golfers this week and am focusing on the mid-tier. I think that’s where most of the value is.