Daily Fantasy Golf: Shriners Hospital Picks & Projections
As much as I would love to forget about last week, if I’m going to boast about my picks when they are good, I have to take the fall when my picks are bad. OK, they weren’t terrible, but they certainly weren’t as good as they have been in past weeks. Luckily, I didn’t recommend taking John Merrick in the column because he slept in and missed his tee time. And yes he was on all of my rosters. Here’s a quick recap of the Frys.com Picks:
Camilo Villegas – Played great other than round 3. Ended up shooting a -8 good enough for a 26th place finish.
Jason Kokrak – Had a very disappointing final round of +2. He was in the hunt heading into Sunday but ended up with a 12th place finish.
David Hearn – Probably my best pick of the week. He was very affordable and had a good showing. He finished 9 under, tied for 21st.
Angel Cabrera – Here’s where things started going wrong. Cabrera looked awful in both of his rounds and missed the cut after posting a +5.
Rory Sabbatini – Came into the week red hot, but he left ice cold. He finished with an 11 over that really hurt.
So I had a mixed bag of results to start the 2014 season. Not the start that I wanted, but I’m confident in a nice bounce back week. The projections have proven to be very valuable and I think we will get back on the right track this week. But before we get into the picks and projections, let me explain how the projections work:
1. Projections are based on three different criteria: Odds to win, % of cuts made, and % of top 10 finishes. They are weighted 70% for odds, 15% for cuts, and 15% for top 10’s.
2. The player score is a combination of the three criteria. I rank all of the golfers each week by each criteria and give them a score between 1-100. The player score is essentially my ranking system.
3. Once the player score is calculated, I estimate a winning score and give that fantasy output to the player with the highest score. I also come up with a low score and then evenly distribute fantasy points to all of those ranked in between the first and last ranked golfers.
Now that I have everyone (including myself) confused, let’s get to this weeks projections:
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Projections
| Player Name | Events | Cuts | Cuts % | Top 10 | Avg Odds | Player Score | Projection | Salary | $/Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo Villegas | 23 | 16 | 69.57% | 2 | 93.33 | 63.73 | 19.62 | $12,039 | $614 |
| Bob Estes | 18 | 15 | 83.33% | 2 | 135.83 | 48.88 | 17.78 | $10,917 | $614 |
| John Peterson | 6 | 5 | 83.33% | 1 | 43.33 | 90.55 | 27.78 | $17,096 | $615 |
| Ben Martin | – | – | 0.00% | – | 66.33 | 75.64 | 24.42 | $15,129 | $620 |
| Ryan Palmer | 22 | 17 | 77.27% | 4 | 64.00 | 81.14 | 24.10 | $15,000 | $622 |
| Matt Jones | 24 | 18 | 75.00% | 5 | 65.67 | 80.78 | 25.86 | $16,200 | $626 |
| John Merrick | 23 | 16 | 69.57% | 2 | 86.00 | 67.78 | 22.02 | $13,797 | $627 |
| Daniel Summerhays | 26 | 15 | 57.69% | 4 | 81.00 | 69.22 | 21.63 | $13,557 | $627 |
| Harris English | 26 | 21 | 80.77% | 4 | 58.83 | 84.79 | 25.41 | $15,953 | $628 |
| Charles Howell … | 26 | 18 | 69.23% | 5 | 63.00 | 80.78 | 25.62 | $16,205 | $633 |
| Charley Hoffman | 23 | 19 | 82.61% | 5 | 50.00 | 90.73 | 28.02 | $17,775 | $634 |
| David Hearn | 26 | 18 | 69.23% | 2 | 55.33 | 79.25 | 25.14 | $15,970 | $635 |
| Morgan Hoffmann | 20 | 11 | 55.00% | 3 | 81.67 | 67.64 | 20.10 | $12,794 | $637 |
| Russell Henley | 24 | 16 | 66.67% | 3 | 67.17 | 73.22 | 23.70 | $15,258 | $644 |
| Patrick Reed | 26 | 16 | 61.54% | 5 | 61.33 | 78.71 | 24.90 | $16,069 | $645 |
| Pat Perez | 21 | 14 | 66.67% | 4 | 125.00 | 53.11 | 13.65 | $8,996 | $659 |
| Jerry Kelly | 22 | 15 | 68.18% | 2 | 100.00 | 59.05 | 17.02 | $11,288 | $663 |
| Brian Davis | 28 | 17 | 60.71% | 4 | 100.00 | 59.14 | 18.66 | $12,455 | $667 |
| James Driscoll | 23 | 15 | 65.22% | 2 | 133.33 | 43.43 | 13.86 | $9,263 | $668 |
| David Toms | 16 | 9 | 56.25% | 1 | 109.17 | 46.76 | 15.06 | $10,152 | $674 |
| Jimmy Walker | 24 | 18 | 75.00% | 5 | 31.33 | 92.40 | 29.21 | $19,807 | $678 |
| George McNeill | 21 | 15 | 71.43% | 0 | 57.83 | 75.02 | 24.18 | $16,416 | $679 |
| Richard H. Lee | 24 | 17 | 70.83% | 2 | 131.67 | 47.21 | 15.30 | $10,401 | $680 |
| Jason Kokrak | 25 | 15 | 60.00% | 4 | 59.67 | 77.86 | 24.66 | $16,768 | $680 |
| Josh Teater | 24 | 19 | 79.17% | 3 | 129.17 | 52.39 | 13.98 | $9,509 | $680 |
| Bryce Molder | 24 | 17 | 70.83% | 0 | 105.83 | 50.18 | 14.50 | $9,963 | $687 |
| Jeff Overton | 24 | 16 | 66.67% | 2 | 69.00 | 70.16 | 23.46 | $16,137 | $688 |
| Martin Laird | 21 | 13 | 61.90% | 2 | 41.33 | 81.86 | 26.34 | $18,163 | $690 |
| John Huh | 28 | 17 | 60.71% | 2 | 57.00 | 74.84 | 23.94 | $16,605 | $694 |
| Angel Cabrera | 21 | 16 | 76.19% | 2 | 95.00 | 65.03 | 20.58 | $14,317 | $696 |
| Kyle Stanley | 24 | 12 | 50.00% | 3 | 66.67 | 68.72 | 21.10 | $14,681 | $696 |
| Brad Fritsch | 24 | 17 | 70.83% | 1 | 162.50 | 35.42 | 10.98 | $7,645 | $696 |
| David Lingmerth | 23 | 11 | 47.83% | 3 | 133.33 | 42.13 | 12.37 | $8,683 | $702 |
| Chez Reavie | 22 | 14 | 63.64% | 0 | 158.33 | 31.33 | 10.02 | $7,039 | $702 |
| Cameron Tringale | 24 | 16 | 66.67% | 1 | 141.67 | 37.94 | 11.94 | $8,459 | $708 |
| Tim Clark | 20 | 11 | 55.00% | 3 | 96.67 | 59.81 | 17.90 | $12,683 | $709 |
| Brendan Steele | 26 | 17 | 65.38% | 2 | 83.33 | 65.80 | 20.82 | $14,915 | $716 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 26 | 16 | 61.54% | 5 | 94.17 | 64.58 | 20.34 | $14,582 | $717 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 23 | 13 | 56.52% | 1 | 63.67 | 68.27 | 22.26 | $16,046 | $721 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 19 | 12 | 63.16% | 3 | 90.00 | 66.83 | 18.01 | $13,026 | $723 |
| Chris Kirk | 24 | 20 | 83.33% | 3 | 50.00 | 86.99 | 23.12 | $16,755 | $725 |
| Vijay Singh | 19 | 12 | 63.16% | 0 | 59.00 | 70.12 | 22.98 | $16,720 | $728 |
| Spencer Levin | – | – | 0.00% | – | 52.67 | 86.50 | 24.12 | $17,560 | $728 |
| Seung-yul Noh | 25 | 11 | 44.00% | 1 | 90.00 | 52.84 | 17.22 | $12,539 | $728 |
| Kevin Stadler | 25 | 17 | 68.00% | 3 | 86.67 | 67.42 | 17.99 | $13,121 | $729 |
| Carl Pettersson | 24 | 18 | 75.00% | 1 | 88.33 | 64.09 | 16.32 | $11,907 | $730 |
| Russell Knox | 11 | 8 | 72.73% | 0 | 75.33 | 66.47 | 19.10 | $13,938 | $730 |
| Scott Stallings | 27 | 13 | 48.15% | 4 | 99.17 | 56.80 | 16.18 | $11,815 | $730 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 7 | 6 | 85.71% | 2 | 22.50 | 97.98 | 33.90 | $24,811 | $732 |
| Robert Garrigus | 22 | 12 | 54.55% | 2 | 38.83 | 79.66 | 25.38 | $18,849 | $743 |
| Ben Crane | 21 | 11 | 52.38% | 2 | 106.67 | 49.55 | 16.26 | $12,164 | $748 |
| Jason Bohn | 23 | 12 | 52.17% | 2 | 120.83 | 44.69 | 14.34 | $10,810 | $754 |
| Brendon Todd | 10 | 8 | 80.00% | 0 | 93.33 | 61.66 | 14.10 | $10,645 | $755 |
| Brian Harman | 29 | 15 | 51.72% | 2 | 85.00 | 60.17 | 19.14 | $14,485 | $757 |
| Charlie Wi | 23 | 15 | 65.22% | 1 | 98.50 | 56.48 | 17.94 | $13,661 | $761 |
| Scott Brown | 21 | 12 | 57.14% | 1 | 72.67 | 64.27 | 20.10 | $15,399 | $766 |
| Brendon de Jonge | 30 | 25 | 83.33% | 4 | 28.17 | 92.71 | 28.50 | $21,881 | $768 |
| Graham DeLaet | 26 | 21 | 80.77% | 7 | 24.00 | 96.40 | 30.70 | $23,770 | $774 |
| Stuart Appleby | 25 | 19 | 76.00% | 1 | 175.00 | 30.92 | 9.78 | $7,574 | $774 |
| Mark Wilson | 19 | 9 | 47.37% | 3 | 104.17 | 52.79 | 16.98 | $13,325 | $785 |
| Retief Goosen | 8 | 6 | 75.00% | 1 | 150.00 | 43.12 | 13.62 | $10,746 | $789 |
| Scott Piercy | 24 | 15 | 62.50% | 4 | 30.00 | 87.76 | 27.30 | $21,543 | $789 |
| Heath Slocum | 9 | 6 | 66.67% | 0 | 133.33 | 39.34 | 12.66 | $10,041 | $793 |
| Y.E. Yang | 19 | 9 | 47.37% | 0 | 114.17 | 38.53 | 12.42 | $9,857 | $794 |
| John Senden | 25 | 15 | 60.00% | 0 | 104.17 | 47.21 | 15.54 | $12,360 | $795 |
| Will MacKenzie | – | – | 0.00% | – | 100.33 | 54.10 | 17.70 | $14,191 | $802 |
| Martin Flores | 25 | 16 | 64.00% | 2 | 179.17 | 28.49 | 9.06 | $7,330 | $809 |
| Bud Cauley | 24 | 10 | 41.67% | 0 | 100.83 | 43.61 | 14.10 | $11,450 | $812 |
| Chad Campbell | 25 | 14 | 56.00% | 1 | 129.17 | 40.33 | 12.90 | $10,519 | $815 |
| Andres Romero | 21 | 10 | 47.62% | 2 | 105.83 | 49.19 | 16.02 | $13,198 | $824 |
| J.J. Henry | 26 | 16 | 61.54% | 2 | 120.83 | 46.40 | 14.82 | $12,269 | $828 |
| William McGirt | 24 | 14 | 58.33% | 2 | 166.67 | 31.91 | 10.26 | $8,541 | $832 |
| Lucas Glover | 23 | 10 | 43.48% | 2 | 179.17 | 23.99 | 7.86 | $6,626 | $843 |
| Luke Guthrie | 27 | 14 | 51.85% | 2 | 137.50 | 36.77 | 11.46 | $9,683 | $845 |
| Davis Love III | 15 | 7 | 46.67% | 1 | 181.67 | 20.62 | 7.62 | $6,445 | $846 |
| Kevin Na | 8 | 3 | 37.50% | 0 | 34.83 | 70.16 | 23.22 | $20,084 | $865 |
| Ryan Moore | 22 | 15 | 68.18% | 3 | 26.50 | 89.70 | 27.54 | $23,850 | $866 |
| Greg Chalmers | 25 | 14 | 56.00% | 2 | 145.83 | 35.87 | 11.22 | $9,785 | $872 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 15 | 5 | 33.33% | 2 | 113.33 | 46.04 | 14.58 | $12,909 | $885 |
| Chesson Hadley | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 100.83 | 40.69 | 13.14 | $11,655 | $887 |
| Webb Simpson | 25 | 20 | 80.00% | 5 | 15.67 | 97.48 | 31.80 | $28,338 | $891 |
| Zach Johnson | 24 | 19 | 79.17% | 8 | 12.00 | 98.65 | 36.00 | $32,632 | $906 |
| Trevor Immelman | 24 | 12 | 50.00% | 1 | 129.17 | 38.26 | 12.18 | $11,156 | $916 |
| Ken Duke | 28 | 15 | 53.57% | 2 | 175.00 | 26.83 | 8.82 | $8,241 | $934 |
| Michael Putnam | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 140.00 | 26.56 | 8.58 | $8,062 | $940 |
| Ben Curtis | 20 | 10 | 50.00% | 0 | 179.17 | 20.57 | 7.38 | $6,969 | $944 |
| Robert Allenby | 24 | 5 | 20.83% | 1 | 166.67 | 24.04 | 8.10 | $7,729 | $954 |
| Nick Watney | 26 | 18 | 69.23% | 4 | 16.67 | 92.80 | 29.60 | $28,565 | $965 |
| Sean O’Hair | 22 | 7 | 31.82% | 0 | 112.50 | 37.36 | 11.70 | $11,372 | $972 |
| Justin Hicks | 25 | 16 | 64.00% | 1 | 170.83 | 29.17 | 9.30 | $9,108 | $979 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 19 | 9 | 47.37% | 1 | 145.83 | 32.32 | 10.50 | $10,320 | $983 |
| Tommy Gainey | 28 | 14 | 50.00% | 1 | 183.33 | 17.24 | 6.42 | $6,693 | $1,043 |
| James Hahn | 26 | 13 | 50.00% | 2 | 162.50 | 30.07 | 9.54 | $10,251 | $1,075 |
| Bill Lunde | 10 | 3 | 30.00% | 1 | 148.33 | 33.22 | 10.74 | $11,548 | $1,075 |
| Charlie Beljan | 24 | 7 | 29.17% | 1 | 195.83 | 13.60 | 5.70 | $6,555 | $1,150 |
| Andrew Svoboda | 17 | 5 | 29.41% | 0 | 170.83 | 19.94 | 6.90 | $8,786 | $1,273 |
| Troy Matteson | 24 | 10 | 41.67% | 0 | 170.83 | 20.03 | 7.14 | $9,423 | $1,320 |
| Ricky Barnes | 26 | 11 | 42.31% | 0 | 154.17 | 25.61 | 8.34 | $11,015 | $1,321 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 183.33 | 11.80 | 5.46 | $7,429 | $1,361 |
| Will Claxton | 24 | 9 | 37.50% | 0 | 179.17 | 15.71 | 6.18 | $8,619 | $1,395 |
| Andres Gonzales | 17 | 3 | 17.65% | 1 | 183.33 | 17.69 | 6.66 | $9,592 | $1,440 |
| Scott Langley | 27 | 12 | 44.44% | 1 | 200.00 | 13.78 | 5.94 | $8,902 | $1,499 |
| Alex Prugh | – | – | 0.00% | – | 195.83 | 9.10 | 4.98 | $8,327 | $1,672 |
| Blake Adams | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 187.50 | 10.27 | 5.22 | $9,349 | $1,791 |
Shriners Open Picks
1) John Peterson: $17,096 – A lot of buzz about this guy right now. He came into the season with 5 straight top-5 finishes on the Web.com Tour and backed up his play last week on the PGA with a 21st place finish. His salary will soon become much more expensive, but until it does, take advantage. He is one of the hottest players in golf right now.
2) Camilo Villegas: $12,039 – #1 value this week in the projections and with a price tag that low it’s easy to see why. Villegas has made 12 of his last 13 cuts and has topped the 15 fantasy point mark in 10 of those events. Villegas played well in this tournament last season with a 30th place finish. He is a safe bet to make the cut this week.
3) Jimmy Walker: 19,807 – I typically don’t love taking the golfer that won the last week’s event, but I really like the price tag on Walker. In his last 2 events, he has a 1st and an 11th place finish. He played in this event last season and tied for 10th. There are going to be a lot of low scores this week and you need someone that can keep up with the field.
4) Ben Martin: 15,129 – – I kept debating whether or not to pick Martin last week. I knew how well he had been doing on the Web.com Tour, but I wasn’t sure that it would translate in his first event on the PGA Tour. He ended up playing some great golf and it looks like he is going to continue his hot play regardless of which tour he is on. For the price, it’s hard to find a better play.
5) Bob Estes: 10,917 – I don’t think anyone is going to be playing Estes this week. Not only is he a no namer to the average golf fan, but his price is so low that most people probably won’t even see him. That’s even better for us though. Estes has made 7 of the last 8 cuts and really played well in this event last year with a 22nd place finish. He will easily make his value this week.
All right, that wraps up this week’s picks and projections. As always if you have any questions, feel free to ask them by posting a comment or you can send me a message. Keep in mind that you don’t just have to use the picks that I’ve highlighted. Use the projections and find some great picks.