Daily Fantasy Golf: WGC-HSBC Championship Picks & Projections
Welcome to another edition of the daily fantasy golf picks & projections. As always, thanks for reading and I appreciate any feedback or comments that you have on the picks each week. Last week was a very low scoring week that was really a roller coaster week for quite a few players. Before we get into the projections for this week, let’s take a look at how last week’s picks performed:
Recap of the CIMB Classic Picks
- Hideki Matsuyama: $22,334 – Matsuyama played well on Thursday and Friday and then struggled during the weekend. He still managed to shoot a 4-under par which was good enough for a 25th place finish.
- Bill Haas: $17,681 – Haas was one of my favorite picks last week and he played pretty well. He shot a 6-under and finished tied for 16th.
- Brendon De Jonge: $16,314 – De Jonge is one of those boom or bust type of players. I thought that it was a good situation for him to succeed, but he just couldn’t get out of his own way. He ended up 3-over.
- Chris Kirk: $15,401 – Kirk fell into the same category as Matsuyama, he played well before the weekend and then coasted home with a 25th place finish.
- Harris English: $15,040 – English was the only pick of mine that finished in the top 10 last week. He finished tied for 7th.
WGC-HSBC Championship Projections
This week’s tournament will be held at the Sheshan International Golf Course in Shanghai, China. The field will be limited so there will no be a cut once again this week. For that reason, the weights in the projections changed a bit. The weights used were 80% odds, 15% top-10 finishes, and 5% cuts made. In events like this that don’t have a cut, you need to take the players that can finish in the top-10.
Here are the projections for the week:
| Player | Avg. Odds | Events | Cuts | Top 10 | Player Scores | Projection | Salary | $/Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Haas | 47.73 | 25 | 18 | 9 | 79.45 | 27.70 | $15,537 | $560.90 |
| Graham Delaet | 42.09 | 26 | 21 | 7 | 79.70 | 28.12 | $15,826 | $562.87 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 39.36 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 82.50 | 28.95 | $16,882 | $583.14 |
| Graeme McDowell | 41.36 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 78.55 | 26.87 | $15,750 | $586.23 |
| Jimmy Walker | 44.82 | 24 | 18 | 5 | 76.00 | 25.20 | $15,144 | $600.95 |
| Jordan Spieth | 28.45 | 23 | 18 | 9 | 90.00 | 31.03 | $18,829 | $606.73 |
| Dustin Johnson | 35.45 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 82.30 | 28.53 | $17,542 | $614.79 |
| Bubba Watson | 56.55 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 67.60 | 23.50 | $14,572 | $620.09 |
| Keegan Bradley | 24.00 | 25 | 20 | 7 | 91.30 | 32.28 | $20,031 | $620.47 |
| Billy Horschel | 51.82 | 26 | 22 | 8 | 76.45 | 24.12 | $15,024 | $622.89 |
| Rickie Fowler | 54.27 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 72.40 | 23.12 | $14,417 | $623.57 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 28.91 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 87.85 | 30.20 | $18,866 | $624.70 |
| Nick Watney | 49.55 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 71.75 | 23.20 | $14,503 | $625.13 |
| Luke Donald | 28.73 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 86.85 | 29.78 | $18,627 | $625.42 |
| Sergio Garcia | 24.55 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 93.10 | 31.70 | $19,994 | $630.73 |
| Kevin Streelman | 121.36 | 25 | 18 | 5 | 53.70 | 16.45 | $10,431 | $634.10 |
| Lee Westwood | 27.91 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 90.80 | 30.01 | $19,125 | $637.29 |
| Ian Poulter | 23.91 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 91.05 | 31.87 | $20,365 | $639.07 |
| Scott Piercy | 105.00 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 56.60 | 17.42 | $11,152 | $640.18 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 57.64 | 22 | 15 | 1 | 61.75 | 21.70 | $13,900 | $640.55 |
| Henrik Stenson | 15.09 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 98.10 | 37.10 | $23,795 | $641.37 |
| Jason Dufner | 28.00 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 86.60 | 29.37 | $19,022 | $647.74 |
| Miguel Angel Jimenez | 108.18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 61.45 | 18.40 | $11,973 | $650.71 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 65.64 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 60.25 | 20.01 | $13,026 | $650.97 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 68.55 | 23 | 13 | 1 | 56.85 | 19.37 | $12,784 | $660.10 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 54.27 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 70.90 | 22.12 | $14,636 | $661.66 |
| Phil Mickelson | 14.91 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 97.55 | 36.00 | $23,937 | $664.92 |
| Ernie Els | 49.55 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 66.10 | 21.10 | $14,145 | $670.38 |
| David Lynn | 101.82 | 22 | 13 | 2 | 55.30 | 18.12 | $12,158 | $671.09 |
| Richard Sterne | 80.09 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 58.45 | 18.40 | $12,489 | $678.75 |
| Chris Wood | 128.64 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 51.75 | 15.62 | $10,684 | $684.14 |
| Justin Rose | 15.64 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 97.00 | 33.80 | $23,133 | $684.41 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 67.45 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 58.50 | 20.20 | $13,838 | $685.05 |
| Ryan Moore | 32.00 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 77.75 | 26.03 | $17,893 | $687.31 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 67.45 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 56.80 | 18.95 | $13,134 | $693.09 |
| Jonas Blixt | 103.64 | 24 | 15 | 2 | 53.80 | 16.87 | $11,744 | $696.28 |
| Peter Uihlein | 35.73 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 79.35 | 24.12 | $16,838 | $698.09 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 58.00 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 59.15 | 20.62 | $14,402 | $698.56 |
| Peter Hanson | 42.27 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 69.05 | 23.12 | $16,153 | $698.76 |
| Boo Weekley | 154.55 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 49.95 | 14.78 | $10,365 | $701.13 |
| Martin Kaymer | 19.91 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 89.05 | 30.62 | $21,709 | $709.06 |
| Francesco Molinari | 32.00 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 75.60 | 24.78 | $17,839 | $719.80 |
| Paul Casey | 27.55 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 78.05 | 26.45 | $19,052 | $720.30 |
| Brett Rumford | 78.36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 54.20 | 17.28 | $12,521 | $724.46 |
| Rory McIlroy | 12.36 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 97.30 | 34.90 | $25,435 | $728.80 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 71.82 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 55.25 | 17.70 | $13,423 | $758.36 |
| Matteo Manassero | 82.73 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 53.15 | 16.03 | $12,213 | $761.73 |
| David Howell | 104.09 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.90 | 15.20 | $11,822 | $777.76 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 111.82 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 49.10 | 13.95 | $10,899 | $781.29 |
| Branden Grace | 115.45 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 46.50 | 13.53 | $10,953 | $809.33 |
| John Merrick | 197.73 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 43.70 | 12.28 | $10,254 | $834.79 |
| Gregory Bourdy | 107.73 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 49.30 | 14.37 | $12,139 | $844.94 |
| George Coetzee | 147.73 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 44.65 | 12.70 | $10,762 | $847.40 |
| Mikko Ilonen | 168.18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 42.55 | 11.87 | $10,089 | $850.20 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 115.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45.05 | 13.12 | $11,303 | $861.73 |
| Jin Jeong | 181.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40.30 | 11.03 | $9,731 | $881.96 |
| Michael Thompson | 203.18 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 40.65 | 11.45 | $10,133 | $884.98 |
| D A Points | 218.18 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 40.00 | 10.62 | $9,585 | $902.83 |
| Scott Hend | 200.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.75 | 10.20 | $9,284 | $910.20 |
| Ken Duke | 222.73 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 37.75 | 9.78 | $9,625 | $983.82 |
| Wen-Chong Liang | 206.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.20 | 9.37 | $9,741 | $1,039.96 |
| Brian Gay | 231.82 | 24 | 16 | 1 | 36.50 | 8.95 | $9,437 | $1,054.41 |
| Derek Ernst | 395.45 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 33.45 | 8.12 | $8,629 | $1,063.12 |
| Jaco van Zyl | 238.64 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 34.25 | 8.53 | $9,558 | $1,120.08 |
| Hiroyuki Fujita | 372.73 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 33.25 | 7.70 | $8,794 | $1,142.08 |
WGC-HSBC Championship Picks
I feel good about this week’s picks. I think there are some obvious plays that are under-priced so there will definitely be an edge for us compared to the average golf fan that doesn’t put too much research into their picks. Here are my top 5 plays this week, factoring in price:
- 1) Graham Deleat: $15,826 – It’s hard to believe that Deleat is cheaper than Peter Uihlein, Francesco Molinari, and Paul Casey. Not only does Deleat have a good chance of winning this tournament, but he has 3 top-10 finishes in his last 6 events including a 7th place finish in last week’s CIMB tournament. He is under-priced this week and you should be taking advantage.
- 2) Bill Haas: $15,537 – Haas is a very consistent golfer. He has finished in the top-25 in 8 of his last 11 events including 3 top-10 finishes. Haas played well in this tournament last year and has a good chance of finishing in the top 10 again this year.
- 3) Jordan Spieth: $18,829 – Spieth was one of the hottest golfers to end the 2012-13 season and will look to start this season off in the right way. Spieth has 4 top-5 finishes in his last 8 events and is one of the favorites to win this week. Spieth has the same upside as Mickelson, Rose, and McIlroy, yet he is about $5,000 cheaper.
- 4) Dustin Johnson: $17,542 – Johnson is the perfect type of player to take in a no cut event. He is fairly inconsistent week to week, but is always a threat to finish in the top-10. This week, you don’t have to worry about him missing the cut. Johnson has 3 top-10 finishes in his last 7 events and will be making his 2013-14 season debut.
- 5) Bubba Watson: $14,572 – In these early season tournaments, you have to be able to shoot low scores and be able to put a few strong days in a row together. The winners are typically in the -15 to -20 range. Bubba is one of those players that can get hot and string together some birdies. I love the price and I think he has a good chance to finish in the top-20. For the price, it’s hard to find better value.