Daily Fantasy Hockey: Key Stats to Consider
Like any sport, determining which statistics are most predictive for future success is one of the keys to DFS success. While hockey is very much an “event” driven fantasy sport, that same logic reigns true. This section will take a look at key statistics to concentrate your research around.
Vegas Lines
Just like every other sport, the Vegas sportsbooks do a fine job of predicting the outcome of games; both at picking the likely winner, as well as potential for offense. Money line favorites obviously win more games (and thus score more goals) which means these players should are preferred for cash games. With that said, the game total is often a very telling statistic as well. Just as in the NBA, some teams do everything in their power to push the pace of play. In hockey, you can treat the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stats similar to up-tempo NBA teams like the Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets. Meanwhile, the New Jersey Devils’ slow style would resemble the Utah Jazz.
Nearly all NHL game totals land between 5 and 5.5 goals. Naturally, the fastest paced teams tend to force Vegas into higher game totals and often times this season we’ve seen the total reach (and occasionally exceed) 6 goals. There’s plenty of merit behind stacking players from these games in all game formats.
Advanced Stats
From a pure statistical analysis standpoint, the NHL sits today about where MLB was 10-15 years ago. Within the last few years we are just now seeing advanced analytic models that are designed to better predict future outcomes. From tracking zone entries, primary assists, shot charts, etc., there are suddenly tons of tools to utilize. In no particular order, here are some of the main statistics you may read about in write-ups and understand (at least to some degree).
1)Corsi Stats – The main goal of Corsi is to quantify how often a player/team is in control of the puck. While puck possession doesn’t always equate to goals, it’s not an accident that the top players and teams tend to rate out quite well by puck possession standards. Corsi For % (known as CF%) tracks the percentage of Corsi events (ie: shots taken by a team/player) versus that of their opponent. As you’d expect, 50% CF is average and anything higher indicates strong puck possession skills.
2)CP60 – Building off of the Corsi platform discussed above, CP60 measures a team’s pace of play. The higher the CP60 number, the more that team likes to push the tempo and, generally speaking, the more attractive that team is to target in DFS hockey.
3)xGF60 – Expected Goals for per 60 minutes – There are several different variations of this statistic, but basically it’s using shot quality (angle, type, range, etc) and frequency to more accurately predict future goal scoring. It’s proving to be far more predictive than simply relying on past goal totals. If we’re looking for an NBA comparison, I’d say this stat is most comparable to Usage Rates. A rate in the mid-to-low 2’s is pretty common here with anything greater than three being exceptional.
4)PDO – This is a stat aimed to signify luck. A PDO of 100 is average, with anything greater than 100 signaling some good fortune and anything below 100 suggesting a player/team has been a bit unlucky. If you’re familiar with xFIP or BABIP in baseball, it would be a solid comparison.
Power-Play and Penalty Kill
This one is pretty straight forward, but definitely shouldn’t be overlooked. 21.3% of all goals this season have been scored on the power-play. This means you not only want to be actively targeting players who see steady playing time with the man-advantage, but also be picking on the teams who happen to be penalty prone and/or not strong with their penalty kill.
Home vs Road Splits
Just like in the other sports, analyzing home vs road splits can reveal some rather startling discrepancies in production. Players are likely more relaxed on their home ice and probably energized by their home fans. However, hockey takes things a step further and actually has rules in place that benefit the home team. They’re not only given an advantage in the faceoff circle, but are also able to dictate the player matchups by utilizing the last line change. Players with these drastic splits are often somewhat reasonably priced and provide plenty of value when you’re able to load them into your lineup in a favorable spot.