Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 4th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-04-05 02:26:47

In this article I’ll break down in-depth starting pitcher stats and color code them so you can see which players you should be targeting and avoiding today based on some sabermetrics and other stats. We have a busy slate to kick off with. Let’s dive in.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Talent and Performance Stats

NOTE: Venue and Secondary color-coded stats can be found after the pitcher breakdown portion of the article

Joe Blanton

• Despite homers being his biggest issue, Blanton has only allowed one homer to current Reds (Brandon Phillips). His 0.49 HR/9 in GABP is a huge surprise even for a small 18.3 IP sample. I wouldn’t trust it.

Bronson Arroyo

• Arroyo has 116 PA against current Angels… 89 of them against Albert Pujols. Pujols has a .267 AVG, 877 OPS, and 4 HR in that time.

Travis Wood

• Wood has a 4.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP against the Pirates, but he hasn’t struggled with their superstar hitter.
• Wood has only faced Andrew McCutchen 17 times, but he has absolutely dominated him with a .091 AVG and 535 OPS.

James McDonald

• McDonald has a 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP against the Cubs in 34.7 IP over his career. Thankfully he is at home where he does so well.

Rick Porcello

• Porcello does his best work vs. the Twins ERA-wise with a 3.24, but his 1.45 WHIP is a bit ominous over the 86 IP.
• The M&M Boys (Mauer and Morneau) have struggled against Porcello posting 708 and 631 OPS marks, respectively, in 52 PA. Morneau has the lone homer.

Mike Pelfrey

• Omar Infante has ripped Pelfrey in his 31 PA with a .536 AVG and 1188 OPS. The damage hasn’t been major with just one extra base hit (a triple) and 14 singles.

Eric Stults

• Don’t be fooled by Stults’ 2.57 ERA vs. the Mets for his career. First off, 21 IP is never enough to really freak out over, but then you have the fact that 16 of those innings happened in 2006-2007 and current Mets have only 15 PA against him.

Dillon Gee

• Gee’s faced the Padres each of the last two years and predictably excelled because a) the Padres aren’t very good and b) they have a tremendous home park.
• No current Padre has more than 6 PA against him.

Jeremy Guthrie

• Guthrie’s second half surge was essentially built on destroying the White Sox once he joined the Royals. He had a 0.30(!!) ERA and 0.78 WHIP against them in 29.7 IP spanning four starts.
• Current White Sox hold a composite 659 OPS in 200 PA against Guthrie with Paul Konerko (861 OPS in 38 PA) and Alex Rios (788 in 50) being the best among them.

Gavin Floyd

• Floyd has handled the Royals’ best hitter, Billy Butler, limiting him to just nine hits (all singles) in 42 PA resulting in a 487 OPS.
• Alex Gordon has fared much better with an 1119 OPS and a pair of home runs among his eight hits in 23 PA.

Miguel Gonzalez

• Gonzalez was key, out-of-nowhere asset for the O’s last year and he handled the divisional foe in three of four outings last year. In fact, it was his first start against TB where they ripped him for seven runs in 2.7 IP while the next three saw them notch 0, 2, and 0 runs off Gonzalez in a 7, 6, and 6.3 IP.
  Roberto Hernandez
• Current Orioles have a 713 OPS against Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) in 112 PA.

Brandon Maurer

• Maurer was a huge surprise in camp as he makes the jump from Double-A ahead of several more highly-acclaimed prospect arms. He had a 3.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 137.7 IP last year.

AJ Griffin

• Griffin steamrolled the M’s in a pair starts during his debut last year yielding a 1.64 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP, 24% K rate, and 3.7 K/BB in 11 IP. He was also 2-0.
  Wade LeBlanc
• “Adam LaRoche(player-profile)”:/players/Adam_LaRoche-10342’s 7 PA is a team-high against LeBlanc. For all intents and purposes, LeBlanc is a new to the Nats.
  Jordan Zimmermann
• Giancarlo Stanton is only 3-for-13 against Zimm (.231 AVG), but all three have left the yard (.923 SLG) helping him to an 1154 OPS in his limited sample of work.

Ryan Dempster

• This iteration of the Yankees has just 52 PA of experience against Dempster led by Lyle Overbay at 13. Overbay does have an 1187 OPS, but that’s built mostly on a 615 OBP thanks to six walks.
  Andy Pettitte
• The remade Red Sox have Pettitte’s number as a whole with an 805 OPS, but in just 143 PA spread among nine guys.
• Dustin Pedroia unsurprisingly leads the charge with 41 PA, but Pettitte actually has his number as evidenced by the meager 569 OPS.
• Known-lefty killer Jonny Gomes (895 OPS vs. LHP; 728 vs. RHP) lives up to his reputation here with an 879 OPS against Pettitte including a homer in his eight hits.

Brett Myers

• With the bulk of his career in the National League, it’s no surprise that Jose Reyes has logged the most PA against Myers (by a measure of 30 over the next-highest) and he has fared well with a .319 AVG and 887 OPS including six extra-base hits among his 15 total hits.

Mark Buehrle

• Buehrle has 4.77 ERA and 1.39 WHIP against Cleveland in 277.3 IP for his career. That spans 1176 plate appearances of work, but only 227 are still with the Indians and they have a combined 731 OPS including “Asdrubal Cabrera(player-profile)”:/players/Asdrubal_Cabrera-10483’s 499 mark in 42 PA.

Cliff Lee

• Four Braves have notched 20+ PA against Lee and the best work has been done by… Reed Johnson? His 1117 OPS is 420 points better than anyone else (which includes BJ Upton, Dan Uggla, and Freddie Freeman).
• As a team, current Braves has a 688 OPS against Lee in 161 PA so the 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 14.0 K/BB rate all make sense.

Kris Medlen

• Don’t be deceived by Medlen’s 5.32 ERA and 1.56 WHIP against the Phillies for his career in 23.7 IP as only 26 PA still remain on the team.
• And nobody even tops 10 PA, but it’s worth noting that Ryan Howard is 4-for-7 (.571) with 2 HR.